Thought I'd create a thread especially for this particular subject. People can discuss and update it as we go.

The good news is that Emma will be ranked 21st in the world officially as of tomorrow, which will be a CH for her. Here is her live ranking as of 31 October :

View attachment 200692

There is even better news to come. Regardless of how she performs in Linz in a couple of weeks, she will finish the year ranked within the top 20. She's currently sitting on 2627 points.

The likes of Angie Kerber, Belinda Bencic and Elena Svitolina will all drop a notable number of points when their Indian Wells 2019 efforts come off shortly. When deducted it will leave them with approximately 2640, 2350 and 2626 points respectively, and with those players not competing in the YEC and (as of yet) no other competitions this year, Emma should finish at least 19th and potentially as high as 14th depending on her performance in Linz.

I'm sure if this is incorrect, more knowledgeable individuals re: the rankings will be able to correct me on that one.

Good post, its impossible to work out casually as when points drop, some points that were not counted in the best of might take their place ? I have almost given up trying to advance work out things.

I am sure emma is just trying to get more games in to up her endurance and stamina with so little tour time. Playing in Linz is probably better than a hitting partner at NTC for her growth.

As long as she is fit she should get as much in as she can IMO = her schedule and planning should also depend on why she was lethargic this week in qtrs (which we will never know).

 

I don't work out rankings in advance because there's usually so much going on, but with the season about to end, most of the top players have either qualified for the YEC, or have decided to shut theirs down, at least from the perspective of accumulating more ranking points. Some might be participating in the BJK Cup, but there's no points on offer there.

Of the ranking events that are still to take place out-with the YEC, Linz is the biggest one left, and the competing players ranked below her, aside from Halep, are all too far away to able to jump above her, and all of the players ranked between 9 and 20 aren't competing either, which gives her an opportunity to jump a few spots.

 

Hype is real. Better fall asleep now

 

Top 20 soon.

Top 10 by middle of next year, IMHO.

 

You might very well be right, just by virtue of the fact she has no points to defend between now and Wimbledon.

10th place is currently Angie Kerber, who has around 640 more points than Emma with 3265 points. If we say for arguments sake, that that'll be the top 10 cut-off next year, can she accumulate that amount of points between now and June with a clay season looming?

 

Except for few players who had deep runs in 2020 AO, the rankings in 2 weeks should pretty closely reflect the reality.

 

@xenosys....you are placing too much importance on rankings....especially in Emma's case. She truly has not been on tour long enough to find out where she really fits in here. I am a fan as well and her US Open win will basically guarantee she will remain in the top 30 until US Open 2022....which is great benefit. She should easily remain inside the top 20 until then.....even with poor results next year. As you say, she literally has no points to defend until Wimbledon, and every point earned til then is a point to the good. But for 2022 do not mistake a good ranking now for good play going forward......the two are not related in the slightest in Emma's case....she still has to prove herself on tour.....just a cautionary tale.

 

For the coming year till Wimbledon 2022, every tournament she enters, she only has to reach the 3rd round to make significant progress on her ranking, she will see competitors tumble down the list because they can't retain their points, and there will be a few like Emma continuing the rise. But it should be a net positive if she can get past the 2nd round of each tournament. Then we are talking about a ranking between 10 and 16. If she does even better top 10 is not out of the question. If she really struggles, she still will be there and about in the top 30 until US Open 22 and she still be seeded in GS tournaments up to that. Even if she has mostly bad runs, she only needs a really good deep run in WTA 1000 tournament of Grand Slam to nullify the bad results.

 

That is interesting - thank you. I was assuming that Emma's initial priority next year would be to establish herself in the top 100 after she loses her USO points. Then it's all progress. My understanding was that making to the top 100 and avoiding qualis is the first step for a young player - and usually a bit of a marathon.

But it sounds as if she will do much better. Of course if she can recreate her USO form on a regular basis then the sky's the limit - but I'm assuming it will be a few years before she has developed enough to be able to do that.

 

So ... the live rankings confirm Emma will a top 20 player next week for the first time.

AFAIK, with Mertens losing around 180 points next week (Linz 2020), Emma should secure YE #19 if she exits Linz in R1 (if applicable), #18 if she exits R2, #16 if she gets to the QF, #15 with a SF showing and #14 with a W.

Simo is the only one that could throw a spanner in the works if she's still going to compete in Linz.

With Halep around 160 points behind Radu, she could overtake her with a W if Emma fails to reach the Final, or a Final appearance if Emma doesn't get past R1.

 

Is a top 8 before Wimbledon too optimistic? It would allow her to avoid the top seeds before QFs and hopefully help cement a top 30 spot before USO points drop.

Wrote this then thought "nah it's too early to speculate and let's just see what 2022 brings".

 

Yes and no. She is about 800 points out of top 8 and has nothing to defend until then

 

Elise Mertens also reached the final of Linz in 2020, and isn't competing this year, so there should be another 180 points deducted from her ranking as well AFAIK. This should bring her ranking down to 2515 in a couple of weeks.

I believe Mertens only drops 120 of the 180 points from Linz 2020, as this score is replaced by 60 points on her 'next best' list of counting scores. Still takes her below Emma in the rankings due 15 November.

What could be REALLY interesting is when the points from the three Melbourne 2021 AO-lead-in tournaments drop off. I have seen one source saying this was going to be 10 Jan 2022 which, presumably, would be the rankings used by the AO to determine their seedings if they commence play on 17 Jan. However, such a drop-off date would be less than the standard 52 weeks so this seems unlikely.

Anyway, let's say those Melbourne points drop off on 10 Jan and are not replaced by any 2022 lead-in tournaments (because of the general uncertainty around the 2022 calendar and the Aussie vaccination/quarantine requirements). It is conceivable that Emma could be seeded in the Top 16 for the AO.

 

I believe Mertens only drops 120 of the 180 points from Linz 2020, as this score is replaced by 60 points on her 'next best' list of counting scores. Still takes her below Emma in the rankings due 15 November.

What could be REALLY interesting is when the points from the three Melbourne 2021 AO-lead-in tournaments drop off. I have seen one source saying this was going to be 10 Jan 2022 which, presumably, would be the rankings used by the AO to determine their seedings if they commence play on 17 Jan. However, such a drop-off date would be less than the standard 52 weeks so this seems unlikely.

Anyway, let's say those Melbourne points drop off on 10 Jan and are not replaced by any 2022 lead-in tournaments (because of the general uncertainty around the 2022 calendar and the Aussie vaccination/quarantine requirements). It is conceivable that Emma could be seeded in the Top 16 for the AO.

Interesting re: the Mertens points. Thanks for that.

A top 16 seeding would be handy, as she could potentially avoid seeds 9-16 in the 3rd round and play 17-24 instead should she get that far. In any case, long way to go until that happens. No point dwelling on it now.

 

This thread WTA Calendar 2022? is suggesting there will be AO lead-in WTA 500 events in Brisbane and Adelaide, presumably from Jan 3rd, as well as three WTA 250s. Hopefully not too long before 2022 calendar announced.

 

This thread WTA Calendar 2022? is suggesting there will be AO lead-in WTA 500 events in Brisbane and Adelaide, presumably from Jan 3rd, as well as three WTA 250s. Hopefully not too long before 2022 calendar announced.

That's great if they are arranging new lead-in events. I was a bit worried there might be fewer events for Emma to get match-ready in the lead-up to the Australian Open what with events such as Hobart being cancelled.

 

Can we just take away everyone's points and give them to Emma since she just going to win everything next season anyway?

 

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Good omen? The other four were not just top 20, they all reached the top 5

 

So as discussed last week, Emma makes her debut in the top 20 for the first time as of the official rankings released today. She's currently #19 in the live race as Mertens drops 120 points next week from reaching the final in Linz last year.

The permutations this week. A lot of where Emma ends up next week will depend on her and Halep's performances in Linz.

• If Emma loses tomorrow: she'll finish the year at best #19, and #20 if Halep reaches the final of Linz.
• If Emma wins her R2 match (60 points): she'll finish above Pegula, Kvitova and Kerber in the year-end rankings and will be #16 unless Halep wins Linz, at which case she'll be YE #17.
• If Emma wins her QF (110 points): she'll jump above Svitolina and go into #15. She'll be #16 if Halep wins the competition.
• If Emma wins her SF (180 points): she'll stay in #15 regardless of Halep's performance.
• If Emma wins the competition (280 points): she'll overtake Rybakina, finish the YE #14, and be around 50 points behind Osaka going into the AO swing next year.

The above is on the proviso that Pegula and Mertens don't play the YEC as alternates. If they do, they can still pick up more points themselves.

 

Pegula & Mertens are the alternates in WTA finals so we will see if they get in

 

Fair point. I'll edit my initial post.

 

My wish is for her to become a top 10 player without ever facing a top 10 player.

 

She beat Sakkari, doesn't that count?

 

So Emma's exit confirms she'll be either be 19 or 20th in the YE rankings, depending on how Halep progresses in Linz, and if Mertens gets called up as an alternate for the YEC.

 

And a year-on-year rise of 324 or 323 places. Remarkable.

 

Halep out of Linz SF - Emma to stay 19th at YE depending on Mertens.

Huge boost for Cristian.

 

Wow, that's big for her.

 

 

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A real shame she couldn't squeeze by Wang last week. That one win would have improved her ranking by 3 places to 16th.

Nevermind, plenty of opportunity next year to pick up points between January and June.

 

A real shame she couldn't squeeze by Wang last week. That one win would have improved her ranking by 3 places to 16th.

Interesting, I hadn't noticed points were that tight in the teens. I'm theory, top 16 versus not could have a impact on matchups at the AO. In practice, impact is probably pretty low

 

Top 20 is nice, she has so much time/ tournaments to improve her ranking till Wimbledon

 

Maybe there should be a new thread for Emma's 2022 calendar but detail of the Aussie warm-up events has appeared. Both Adelaide and Sydney WTA 500 events are 30 MD so presumably Emma could enter both and may even get a seeding depending on who else enters. But would be a R1 start in both, so Emma in action on either 3rd or 10th Jan?

Adelaide would be factored into the rankings for the AO seedings. Which events do people think Emma will go for? Maybe even one of the Melbourne 250s?

 

If she is advised she should go for the playing conditions closest to the AO (fast). I dont know what the warm up 250/500 locations are typically like and more importantly what they will be like this 2022.

 

I was going to say the 500 event don't bother with 250 but than I read your comment cricket and you absolute right she should play the tournament that is closes to the conditions which she will face at the Australian Open.
Another consideration is the time frame.
We are all looking forward to seeing her play again.
GO EMMA GO

 

Given that the venue for the Melbourne 250s is Melbourne Park itself, that would suggest one of the Melbourne events.

I don't know how it all works though - is there an expectation for players of a certain ranking to opt for the higher level events? Adelaide would present a much tougher draw, with a greater probability of an early exit.

 

Personally I feel the better the competition is the better it is for her. I don't think she needs to duck anyone.

 

The 500 so she is less likely to get a bye, her inexperience shows when the other player has had a match to warm up and work out how the court is playing.