3rd 3 set match in a row for Pegula, each with a breadstick/bagel in the final set lol

 

Frank Sinatra and Jess: "I did it MY WAY" 🎶

 

Strange choke from Pegula to only lose 3 games in the next two sets.

 

They were both really nervous because that's a lot of prize money on the line to make a 1000 SF.

 

 

This is a genuinely crazy statistic nn.

 

I’m the top billionaire’s daughter around here bitch.

 

My Daddy's still richer than your Daddy though!💰

 

 

Excellent comeback from Jess!
Wow, just realized 3 of the 4 semifinalists are Americans, and probably all YEC bound.
I hope Madison can play(YEC), is she injured?
Anyway, Jess IS a superior player to Emma, but Emma is riding high after the Iga win. Especially strong 3rd set from Pegula. Hope she has some gas left to make the finals.

 

First I saw somebody choked 0-40 and 40-0 back to back then lose 5 points in a row. It was a good recovery

 

 

You better believe it is!

Finally, a really telling stat from OptaAce.

 

Rich Emma's chances of qualifying for the YEC have taken a battering, I think she really needs to win Wuhan plus either Ningbo or Tokyo 500 to have a hope. Sounds like a very tall order to me, especially for someone more renowned for consistency than brilliance.

 

Jess made her know who has the higher net worth (pun intended😆)

I also didn't realize 3-set wins vs the top 20 were so rare for Jess.
However, I suspect the stat creates a slightly misleading impression that she rolls over after losing a set when, In reality, there were likely many hard-fought losses in there.
That's probably one reason we didn't notice her bad comeback record. The other reason is that she probably takes the lead most of the time.
After all, she's top 10 with a bad comeback record vs the top 20 so she couldn't have needed to come from behind in most matches. No Daria Saville, that's for sure ...

Congrats Jess!

 

Iga died for this...

 

By the way ...
Another, possibly underappreciated, JPeg stat is that she has beaten Iga almost half the times they've played (5/11).
These include straight set victories (naturally, given her bad comeback rate 😆) in the most recent two meetings at USO '24 & Bad Homburg '25.

 

That H2H looks better for Pegula than it actually is. Out of those 11 matches they played only once on clay, and all of Pegula’s most significant wins came on U.S. courts, where she automatically has the edge in things like courts familarity and acclimatization especially at the very start of the USA Swing(Montreal, Washington). Outside the USA her only wins were at the United Cup which is not a typical singles event and in Bad Homburg, played just a few days before Wimbledon, where matches are rarely the best measure since players usually avoid going all out right before a Slam.

Nah, the H2H is exactly what it is.
The tour has way more HC tournaments than clay ... and has tournaments in the US both early and late calendar.
I'm not sure why more meetings on rarer clay (to Iga's benefit) would be somehow more reflective of reality, as was implied by your post.

 

I'm not sure why more meetings on rarer clay (to Iga's benefit) would be somehow more reflective of reality, as was implied by your post.

OP wrote that Pegula has beaten Świątek 5 out of 11 times. This implies about a 55% edge for Świątek, but actual odds have always given her between 65% and 80% chances to win (decimal 1.2–1.4), so the H2H is misleading.

Most WTA tournaments are outside the US, yet Pegula has 0 wins over Świątek on clay and only 1 on hard courts outside the US, at the United Cup, which is a team event and US has always strongest team. In the US it’s 3–3, roughly even, but Montreal 2023 heavily favored Pegula due to rain and scheduling. Świątek played her semifinal 15 hours after a long quarterfinal, while Pegula had two days of rest. In the final Pegula beat Samsonova 6–1 6–1, who played tough semifinal against Rybakina few hours earlier.

Overall, this H2H reflects their rivalry on US hard courts more than it does their rivalry on the Tour as a whole. Świątek’s H2Hs with other American players like Gauff, Keys, or Collins are much more balanced in terms of surfaces and conditions.