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Which could MOST likely occur?

  • All medalists within top 5 seeds (1992, 2012)

    Votes: 11 15.9%
  • Singles medalists all represent same nation (2008)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Gold medalist unseeded (2016)

    Votes: 18 26.1%
  • Gold medalist wins without dropping a set (2012)

    Votes: 19 27.5%
  • Gold medalist in singles also wins medal in doubles (1988, 2000, 2012)

    Votes: 8 11.6%
  • Gold medalist in doubles also wins medal in singles (1992, 2000, 2012)

    Votes: 12 17.4%
  • Host wins medal in singles, doubles and mixed (never)

    Votes: 1 1.4%
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Q Wang, Kontaveit, Badosa
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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Olympics are upon us and it’s always an exciting time in tennis and other sports.

I was originally going to put an option in for teenage gold medalist, but Coco and Marta are out and Iga is 20 now 😭😭. Also was going to go for the generic options of number 1 wins gold or host nation player wins gold, but with that being Osaka and Barty… that is likely to happen either way.

All medalists in top 5 seeds
Top 5 seeds this year are:


1. Barty
2. Osaka
3. Sabalenka
4. Svitolina
5. Pliskova

In 1992 Capriati (3), Graf (1), MJF (4)/ASV(2) won medals in singles. In 2012 Serena (4), Sharapova (3), and Azarenka (1) won medals in singles.

Singles medalist represent same nation
In 2008 we had Dementieva, Safina and Zvonareva. I’m looking at the Karolina, Petra and Barbora this year… I think there’s a small chance it could happen, but obviously many things have to fall into place. With BJK cup we know that in the past the CZE players bring their A game when representing their country. No Vondrousova hate (I hope she can find some form here because she has a decent draw first couple of rounds), but the chances would be slightly better had Muchova been here IMO.

Gold medalist unseeded
Happened once with Puig last olympics.

Gold medalist wins without dropping set
Serena literally decimated the field in 2012. It was the greatest performance at a tennis tournament I've ever seen in my life time. If the seedings go to plan I can't see Barty and Osaka being a cakewalk match. It has 3 sets written all over it. Saying that, two close sets also counts as a straight sets win so who knows 🤷🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️.

Gold medalist in singles also wins medal in doubles

So singles gold medalist wins either gold, silver or bronze in doubles. Graf did this in 1988 winning bronze in doubles, Venus in 2000 winning both golds and Serena in 2012 winning both golds. The positioning of players in both draws kinda makes this one a bit unlikely, but you never know.

Gold medalist in doubles also wins medal in singles (1992, 2000, 2012)

MJF scored a bronze in singles in 1992. 2000 and 2012 was ofc Williams sisters. Krej could do this if (big IF) she beats Barty in singles QF. Barty could do this if (big IF) her and Storm best Krej/Katka in doubles QF 😂😂.

Host wins medal in singles, doubles and mixed (never)

Obviously mixed is a newer discipline (only since 2012), but this has happened in singles and doubles in 1992 and 1996. Imo there is a huge chance it could happen this year with Osaka, Ena/Shuko (they have a disgusting draw though 😭) and Ben/Ena (who I assume are playing mixed?). Could be a first in Tennis history and could go unbroken for many years to come.
 

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Thanks for making a well-researched and thought provoking poll. I'd say it's most likely that the winner doesn't drop a set. A lot of the other scenarios don't seem that plausible, but who would've guessed Krej would win singles and doubles at RG? Barty, Osaka, and Sabalenka/Svitolina/Pliskova as medalists wouldn't be so shocking either I suppose.
 

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Q Wang, Kontaveit, Badosa
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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Thanks for making a well-researched and thought provoking poll. I'd say it's most likely that the winner doesn't drop a set. A lot of the other scenarios don't seem that plausible, but who would've guessed Krej would win singles and doubles at RG? Barty, Osaka, and Sabalenka/Svitolina/Pliskova as medalists wouldn't be so shocking either I suppose.
No worries ☺. I was kinda sitting on the idea until the draw came out and the wave of withdrawals stopped (still upset Gauff won't be there). Would have been helpful if I double checked the spelling of Olympics in the title of the thread though 😭.
 

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Pliskova ranking is a joke again
Not quite sure why you would pick on the Wimbledon finalist when there's Monfils just above her. I mean, on a slow court Elina would be favoured to do well, but she really has done practically nothing in the last 12 months.
 

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I can see Barty, Osaka and Sabalenka all getting medals, but I see an unseeded random also showing up like Puig, the draw isn’t terribly stacked.
 

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Host wins medal in singles, doubles and mixed (never)

this is very interesting cuz Japan is entering the tournament in singles and doubles with a strong roster. dont know the mixed team.
 

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Q Wang, Kontaveit, Badosa
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Discussion Starter · #10 · (Edited)
Host wins medal in singles, doubles and mixed (never)

this is very interesting cuz Japan is entering the tournament in singles and doubles with a strong roster. dont know the mixed team.
True! It’s not common to have good candidates in all three categories for a host. The only time it could've really happened in the past had there been a mixed event was Atlanta 96 and there would've been a huge chance for gold (that would've been gold in singles, doubles and mixed which would've been huge).

Maybe could've happened in Barcelona 92, but in that case it wouldn't have been golds across the board.

2000 Sydney was another big shot that kinda flopped. Dokic was close in her SF and would've gotten a silver had she beaten dementieva. Dokic/Stubbs choked their second round and Boogert/Oremans went on to win silver. The draw was wide open for the Dutch pair (until the final ofc) so I’d like to think the Australians would've won silver had they won that match. If there was a mixed event in 2000 a woody + stubbs had medal written all over it.

That's easy to fix. Just edit the first post and the thread title is one of the things you can change.
Thank you ☺! I need my eyes testing 😭. Can't believe I didn't see that.
 
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Davenport won gold in Atlanta in 1996 🤡

Mary Joe Fernandez and Gigi Fernandez won gold in Atlanta.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Davenport won gold in Atlanta in 1996 🤡

Mary Joe Fernandez and Gigi Fernandez won gold in Atlanta.
1996 olympics was before my time, but it must’ve been so cool to be a tennis fan and an American that year. It was golds across the board except in men’s doubles for the US. Had there been a mixed event I think the US could’ve gotten a gold as well.

MJF and Fernandez defending their gold medal from Barcelona was an awesome effort.

I feel like Japan are very likely to medal in singles and doubles (won’t necessarily both be golds). Even though I think they could get a medal in mixed it is less likely than in dubs or singles. Looking into the future the next time there is a chance of the hosts scoring medals in singles, dubs and mixed would be 2028 in LA. I mean it could happen in 2024, but I don’t think there’ll be enough french contenders to win a singles medal (I guess Burel or Babel could if they rise up the ranks).
 

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None of these seem totally out of the blue if they were to happen except the one country winning all singles medals.

Order of likelihood IMO from most likely to least

2 sets: I think Osaka or Barty could win in 2 sets the whole tournament but the draw will need to fall apart. Someone else could peak as well like Sabalenka or Swiatek.

Host country: With Osaka and another good doubles team from JPN, could see host winning a medal in all 3 events.

Unseeded: I think gold medalist will be seeded but nowadays with WTA could easily happen and a few good contenders, but there is also a recent surge in consistency.... and when i look at the unseeded they are way too inconsistent. Not enough dangerous floaters as those probably didn't attend.

Doubles Gold, Singles Medal: Gold medalist in doubles also winning a singles medal could happen with players like Krejcikova. Doubles at olympics can be unpredictable.

3 of Top 5 Seeds Medal: I think 2 of the medalists will be top 5, doubt all 3 will.

Singles Gold, Doubles Medal: None of the top singles players expecting to win gold medal are in doubles but there are some contenders like Krejcikova or Svitolina, and doubles at olympics can be unpredictable

One country winning all singles: Not enough consistency for all to be from the same nation but it's possible and not totally farfetched, most likely with CZE and they are all in diff quarters. Other countries don't have a ton of medal potential even with 3+ entrants.
 

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Either Barthel or Yastremska will win Gold.
 
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