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I'd just feel a little foolish if I was wrong. What, after telling people months in advance exactly when Kim would reach #2, reach 5000 points, reach #1, reach 6000 points. Oh, and did I mention having them tell me I was delusional the whole time? I'd hate to think I lost my touch now.
 

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disposablehero said:
I'd just feel a little foolish if I was wrong. What, after telling people months in advance exactly when Kim would reach #2, reach 5000 points, reach #1, reach 6000 points. I'd hate to think I lost my touch.
It all remains to be seen. Kim has to make some serious GS noise or she won't keep the top spot or even top 2 by next year.
 

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disposablehero said:
Question. How exactly are the Williams going to catch up to Kim by Wimbledon with no summer hardcourt points on their totals and Serena in particular defending 2 Slams where Kim only made the Semis? I'd love if someone can explain this to me.
I can easily build you several scenarios that would lead to just that, without any extraordinary events. Kim's Summer points are the following:

2003-07-21 Stanford..........264 WON
2003-07-28 San Diego........237 F
2003-08-04 Los Angeles......298 WON
2003-08-11 Toronto............57 3RD

Total without USOpen.........856

Now consider that the difference between a Win and a QF at a Slam is about: 1100-250= 850 pts. This alone tells you those Summer points can quickly evaporate.

Between now and WB-04, we have 3 Slams, Dispo, plus TC-03 which is worth about 750 pts. Why is it so hard for you to grasp that anything can happen by WB and even by RG?

Please spare me the long work of building possible scenarios. If the above is not too clear, take a rest and revisit it tomorrow.
 

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Knizzle said:
Venus isn't in the top 4 now is she??
No she isn't. However, she does have 12 less tournaments than Kim and 7 less titles. See, here's the thing. The Williams have always gotten good chunks of their points from the August hardcourt season. This year, nothing. So barring a radical increase of schedule during other parts of the season, they won't get those points back until August. If Kim wins the US Open, she will have the #1 ranking virtually uncontested until at least Roland Garros. She has 3 rivals for that ranking right now. The most dangerous is dug into a huge hole because she will have no points for the US Open or the 5 important events before it, and by the time she has a chance to catch up she will be defending winners points from Wimbledon. Next is Justine. A threat to take #1 from Kim? Yes. In fact the only threat for the next 6 months. But if she can't do it by April, then she can't do it. Finally, Venus. Has to win the US Open to even be in the mix. Even that would get her not immediately closer to Kim if Kim is the losing Finalist. Thing is, yes, Venus will eventually have some opportunities to gain some ground on Kim. But Kim has a chance at Us Open to stretch the margin WIDER, and is guaranteed to unless Venus wins the title.
 

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TennisPower said:
I can easily build you several scenarios that would lead to just that, without any extraordinary events. Kim's Summer points are the following:

2003-07-21 Stanford..........264 WON
2003-07-28 San Diego........237 F
2003-08-04 Los Angeles......298 WON
2003-08-11 Toronto............57 3RD

Total without USOpen.........856

Now consider that the difference between a Win and a QF at a Slam is about: 1100-250= 850 pts. This alone tells you those Summer points can quickly evaporate.

Between now and WB-04, we have 3 Slams, Dispo, plus TC-03 which is worth about 750 pts. Why is it so hard for you to grasp that anything can happen by WB and even by RG?

Please spare me the long work of building possible scenarios. If the above is not too clear, take a rest and revisit it tomorrow.
Great. now how many of these Slams did the WS lose in the QF of, which will allow them that big 850 point bump next year? And are they both going to win each Slam, or will there only be one winner for each?
 

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It's pretty simple. Other than Roland Garros:

Venus wins a Slam over Serena, Serena=fucked.
Serena wins a Slam over Venus, both Williams=treading water
Serena wins a Slam over anyone else, Venus=fucked
Venus wins a Slam over anyone else, Serena=double fucked
Someone not named Williams wins a Slam over Serena, both Williams=double fucked
Someone not named Williams wins a Slam over Venus, Serena=triple fucked
 

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Knizzle said:
I had a thread about this before, and I think the top 4 will look like this after Wimbledon:

1. Venus(AO and Wimbledon champ)
2. Serena(French Open champ)
3. Henin
4. Clijsters

I think Serena will go into Wimbledon as #1, but Venus will win Wimbledon and take the #1 ranking. I think Henin will be #1 between February till after the French Open.
explain to me how Justine can be number 1 until after the French Open but Serena will go into Wimbledon number 1. Serena has not recently played any tournament between Roland Garros and Wimbledon, so if she does the same next year and Justine is still number 1 after Roland Garros (which she SHOULD win again), Justine would still be number one until after Wimbledon.

also explain to me how Serena will ever win Roland Garros AGAIN?
 

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disposablehero said:
Great. now how many of these Slams did the WS lose in the QF of, which will allow them that big 850 point bump next year? And are they both going to win each Slam, or will there only be one winner for each?
You have it all twisted with points to defend. First, you've got to consider the sisters seperately. Secondly, it's almost a full year between now and WB-04; those 850 pts in Kim's advantage can easily be absorbed. Didn't she lose to Lina lately? That shows she can lose early just as anyone else, thereby receding point-wise with respect to her competitors.
 

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disposablehero said:
No she isn't. However, she does have 12 less tournaments than Kim and 7 less titles. See, here's the thing. The Williams have always gotten good chunks of their points from the August hardcourt season. This year, nothing. So barring a radical increase of schedule during other parts of the season, they won't get those points back until August. If Kim wins the US Open, she will have the #1 ranking virtually uncontested until at least Roland Garros. She has 3 rivals for that ranking right now. The most dangerous is dug into a huge hole because she will have no points for the US Open or the 5 important events before it, and by the time she has a chance to catch up she will be defending winners points from Wimbledon. Next is Justine. A threat to take #1 from Kim? Yes. In fact the only threat for the next 6 months. But if she can't do it by April, then she can't do it. Finally, Venus. Has to win the US Open to even be in the mix. Even that would get her not immediately closer to Kim if Kim is the losing Finalist. Thing is, yes, Venus will eventually have some opportunities to gain some ground on Kim. But Kim has a chance at Us Open to stretch the margin WIDER, and is guaranteed to unless Venus wins the title.
I agree with most of this, but Serena will probably be close enough to Clijsters to take over the #1 if Serena wins the French. I don't expect there to be big gaps between the 1-4 by the French Open. I expect the #1-4 rankings to change hands alot in 2004, but I don't expect either WS to get it until after the French Open.
 

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3
Behind either Serena and Venus
or Serena and Justine
 

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You kind of automatically put Venus and Serena ahead of the Belgians again, and if Venus plays a full (to her standards) schedule that might well happen.

People don't seem to notice that on average, and when winning those, Serena picks up between 15-20% of her points at the GS.

Failing to play one (the US Open in this case) has her losing about 17% of her points, and see her fall over 1000 behind Clijsters.

By the time she comes back she'll be probably about 1500 points behind Clijsters.

Of course we cannot make any predictions on Clijsters, if she suddenly gets injured things might change quickly, but if she manages to do not much worse next year than she did this year, it'll be hard for Serena to catch up. If she doesn't play 1 slam, she has to make up for it at other events. Considering she hardly ever loses, she can't really do much better at many tournaments, so if she wants to get the no. of points she's having today (which might be needed to overtake Kim) she'll have to add several events she usually doesn't play, and I personally don't see that happening.

The way Serena earns her points, she needs to compete at all the majors, and doing well at them.
 

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1. Justine
2. Serena
3. Kim
4. Zvonereva
 

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