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#### disposablehero

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Question. How exactly are the Williams going to catch up to Kim by Wimbledon with no summer hardcourt points on their totals and Serena in particular defending 2 Slams where Kim only made the Semis? I'd love if someone can explain this to me.

#### disposablehero

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Knizzle said:
Kim has never had to defend this many points before. Venus failed to defend six of her titles this year because she didn't compete at the tournaments, 3 because of injury. She only has 1405 points to defend from AO until Wimbledon next year!! That's nothing!! She will probably almost double that total if she is healthy. Kim has a whopping 3262 to defend from AO to Wimbledon. DH, you do agree that it will be very tough for Kim to defend all of these points don't you??
Defend them all? Sure, that is tough. Of course, doing better than Semis in AO or WI would have a huge positive effect. But you are missing one thing. Indeed, 1405 points to defend is not much. However, you should keep in mind that Kim is currently MORE than two and one half THOUSAND points ahead of Venus. The only way that MIGHT happen is if the ranking system changes to "best 15" or a divisor with a minimum of no more than 16.

#### disposablehero

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To be clear lets do this mathematically:

VENUS+JENCAP+236=KIM

#### disposablehero

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I thought so too. I'm simply pointing out that it is not so simple as it appears. Keep in mind, it is hard for Kim to lose many points. She's defending about 300 points a pop in a lot of these events, and has 200 for an 18th tournament to dump in if things go foul.

Calvin

#### disposablehero

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I'd just feel a little foolish if I was wrong. What, after telling people months in advance exactly when Kim would reach #2, reach 5000 points, reach #1, reach 6000 points. Oh, and did I mention having them tell me I was delusional the whole time? I'd hate to think I lost my touch now.

#### disposablehero

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What is "serious" Grand Slam noise? Her results this year are fairly comparable to Venus, and twice came closer to being considerably better.

#### disposablehero

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Knizzle said:
Venus isn't in the top 4 now is she??
No she isn't. However, she does have 12 less tournaments than Kim and 7 less titles. See, here's the thing. The Williams have always gotten good chunks of their points from the August hardcourt season. This year, nothing. So barring a radical increase of schedule during other parts of the season, they won't get those points back until August. If Kim wins the US Open, she will have the #1 ranking virtually uncontested until at least Roland Garros. She has 3 rivals for that ranking right now. The most dangerous is dug into a huge hole because she will have no points for the US Open or the 5 important events before it, and by the time she has a chance to catch up she will be defending winners points from Wimbledon. Next is Justine. A threat to take #1 from Kim? Yes. In fact the only threat for the next 6 months. But if she can't do it by April, then she can't do it. Finally, Venus. Has to win the US Open to even be in the mix. Even that would get her not immediately closer to Kim if Kim is the losing Finalist. Thing is, yes, Venus will eventually have some opportunities to gain some ground on Kim. But Kim has a chance at Us Open to stretch the margin WIDER, and is guaranteed to unless Venus wins the title.

#### disposablehero

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TennisPower said:
I can easily build you several scenarios that would lead to just that, without any extraordinary events. Kim's Summer points are the following:

2003-07-21 Stanford..........264 WON
2003-07-28 San Diego........237 F
2003-08-04 Los Angeles......298 WON
2003-08-11 Toronto............57 3RD

Total without USOpen.........856

Now consider that the difference between a Win and a QF at a Slam is about: 1100-250= 850 pts. This alone tells you those Summer points can quickly evaporate.

Between now and WB-04, we have 3 Slams, Dispo, plus TC-03 which is worth about 750 pts. Why is it so hard for you to grasp that anything can happen by WB and even by RG?

Please spare me the long work of building possible scenarios. If the above is not too clear, take a rest and revisit it tomorrow.
Great. now how many of these Slams did the WS lose in the QF of, which will allow them that big 850 point bump next year? And are they both going to win each Slam, or will there only be one winner for each?

#### disposablehero

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It's pretty simple. Other than Roland Garros:

Venus wins a Slam over Serena, Serena=fucked.
Serena wins a Slam over Venus, both Williams=treading water
Serena wins a Slam over anyone else, Venus=fucked
Venus wins a Slam over anyone else, Serena=double fucked
Someone not named Williams wins a Slam over Serena, both Williams=double fucked
Someone not named Williams wins a Slam over Venus, Serena=triple fucked

#### disposablehero

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I've debated this topic enough for now, and made my explanation of the facts as I see them. This issue will be a lot clearer to all concerned in the next 3 weeks.

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