[Knizzle]

I had a thread about this before, and I think the top 4 will look like this after Wimbledon:

1. Venus(AO and Wimbledon champ)
2. Serena(French Open champ)
3. Henin
4. Clijsters

I think Serena will go into Wimbledon as #1, but Venus will win Wimbledon and take the #1 ranking. I think Henin will be #1 between February till after the French Open.

 

[Knizzle]

1. J2H
2. Kim
3. Serena
4. Monica
5. Amelie

Who is this Monica person you speak of?? And did Venus fall off the face of the planet??

 

[Knizzle]

Question. How exactly are the Williams going to catch up to Kim by Wimbledon with no summer hardcourt points on their totals and Serena in particular defending 2 Slams where Kim only made the Semis? I'd love if someone can explain this to me.

Kim has never had to defend this many points before. Venus failed to defend six of her titles this year because she didn't compete at the tournaments, 3 because of injury. She only has 1405 points to defend from AO until Wimbledon next year!! That's nothing!! She will probably almost double that total if she is healthy. Kim has a whopping 3262 to defend from AO to Wimbledon. Serena has 2806 to defend, but can make up significant ground if she does better on the clay. Also Serena failed to defend Scottsdale because of her knee, so she will pick that tourney up next year. If they don't catch her by Wimbledon, then most likely they will catch her before US Open 2004. I think Henin will be #1 sometime in Feb. up until after the FO, when Serena will be #1 until Venus takes the Wimbledon title and the #1 rankings.

DH, you do agree that it will be very tough for Kim to defend all of these points don't you??

 

[Knizzle]

Defend them all? Sure, that is tough. Of course, doing better than Semis in AO or WI would have a huge positive effect. But you are missing one thing. Indeed, 1405 points to defend is not much. However, you should keep in mind that Kim is currently MORE than two and one half THOUSAND points ahead of Venus. The only way that MIGHT happen is if the ranking system changes to "best 15" or a divisor with a minimum of no more than 16.

What you have to understand is the gap between them there is like a 2500 point gap between them now. By the end of the year Venus will have closed to about 2000 unless Clijsters has a disastrous YEC. If they start next year with a 2500 point gap, Clijsters losing 1000, and Venus gaining 1000 would bring them even. It's really not that unusual. It happened to Venus earlier this year. It's happening to Serena now.

 

[Knizzle]

To be clear lets do this mathematically:

VENUS+JENCAP+236=KIM

This is really not necessary. I thought two mature adults were having a discussion here.

 

[Knizzle]

I thought so too. I'm simply pointing out that it is not so simple as it appears. Keep in mind, it is hard for Kim to lose many points. She's defending about 300 points a pop in a lot of these events, and has 200 for an 18th tournament to dump in if things go foul.

Those reserve tournament points have to be defended also, or she won't have anything to fall back on. The points just don't stay there without Kim putting in any effort to preserve them. She definitely may have to fight for her top 2 ranking come FO, Wimby 2004.

 

[Knizzle]

I'd just feel a little foolish if I was wrong. What, after telling people months in advance exactly when Kim would reach #2, reach 5000 points, reach #1, reach 6000 points. I'd hate to think I lost my touch.

It all remains to be seen. Kim has to make some serious GS noise or she won't keep the top spot or even top 2 by next year.

 

[Knizzle]

What is "serious" Grand Slam noise? Her results this year are fairly comparable to Venus, and twice came closer to being considerably better.

Venus isn't in the top 4 now is she??

 

[Knizzle]

No she isn't. However, she does have 12 less tournaments than Kim and 7 less titles. See, here's the thing. The Williams have always gotten good chunks of their points from the August hardcourt season. This year, nothing. So barring a radical increase of schedule during other parts of the season, they won't get those points back until August. If Kim wins the US Open, she will have the #1 ranking virtually uncontested until at least Roland Garros. She has 3 rivals for that ranking right now. The most dangerous is dug into a huge hole because she will have no points for the US Open or the 5 important events before it, and by the time she has a chance to catch up she will be defending winners points from Wimbledon. Next is Justine. A threat to take #1 from Kim? Yes. In fact the only threat for the next 6 months. But if she can't do it by April, then she can't do it. Finally, Venus. Has to win the US Open to even be in the mix. Even that would get her not immediately closer to Kim if Kim is the losing Finalist. Thing is, yes, Venus will eventually have some opportunities to gain some ground on Kim. But Kim has a chance at Us Open to stretch the margin WIDER, and is guaranteed to unless Venus wins the title.

I agree with most of this, but Serena will probably be close enough to Clijsters to take over the #1 if Serena wins the French. I don't expect there to be big gaps between the 1-4 by the French Open. I expect the #1-4 rankings to change hands alot in 2004, but I don't expect either WS to get it until after the French Open.