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from the semi final I thought there was a legitimate possiblity she might win it, I was never totally convinced though until she hit that ace at championship point in the final, until then I thought there was a chance ferdandez was going to turn the match around.
 

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Wimbledon.
 

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During her match against Belinda. She seemed to be another category. And Bencic is one of the best players in the tour right now.
 

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Emma's peak was against Shuai Zhang. Both players played well. That match changed my view of her. I thought the standard of tennis she produced in that match could win the tournament. However, it wasn't until Ash Barty got knocked out that I got seriously stressed by the idea that the tournament was there for Emma to win, so long as she could perform under pressure. I really didn't enjoy any of her matches after Sorribes Tormo, as I thought Emma had a genuine chance of winning the title but that her margin for error was so small. Not only did she have to win but she had to win quickly, in order to have enough energy to last the tournament, given she'd played qualifying and reached the final of Chicago 125 the week before and played 5 matches at the 100K the week before that.

I never reached the point of believing she would win. I always think in terms of probabilities related to various scenarios. So I guess I had her as a marginal favourite or among the top few, from the moment Barty lost.
 

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Honestly, never before the final. You always have in the back of your mind that anything can happen but that's it.

On the other hand, I placed Raducanu second in a list of five players who impressed me the most during the first week, after her wins over Sorribes Tormo and Rogers. I was placing Bencic first, but Raducanu second before Krejcikova, Andreescu and Sabalenka. We know how the match with Bencic went - and to know if Belinda didn't play her best because of Emma's game is anyone's guess. It's fair to say Emma's game is still underrated and overlooked by the hype and the fairytale narrative.

I probably underrated Fernandez myself. Seeing her edging Osaka and Kerber wasn't enough for me, I think any steady and resilient baseliner could overtake them, but her wins over Svitolina and Sabalenka made me realize she's more than that (as observed by Shvedbarilescu and others) and is not just an inside story of the tournament (either Raducanu). It was funny by the way to hear their speeches: they obviously think they will face regularly from now on, and are convinced it's only the start.

I find this funny because if I can see them being top players, I'm not so sure they will dominate the tour like they dominated this slam. I think the tour is rich and many players will remain challenging enough to keep the tour from being dominated by a star of the game, or a GOAT.

Actually, do people around here realize that we've got several "phenomenons" rising on the tour each year for a while? A lot of them are recent.

EDIT: I didn't realize I was on Raducanu's forum, I thought it was General Messages. Anyway you got my points.
 

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Only really when she got to the final. I was fairly confident she could beat Leylah, based on her being from the same peer group.
 

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After the quarter final , I thought they were no clear favourite and my pick was Emma.


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Honestly, only when she reached the final and that it was against another teenager. I'm english so my natural sporting state is pessimism and despair (especially when following the wolves and england)
 

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EDIT: I didn't realize I was on Raducanu's forum, I thought it was General Messages. Anyway you got my points.
The powers that be are aggressively moving threads from GM to this new subforum. There are lots of threads I wish I'd never seen, but this isn't one of them.
 

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When she was in the final against Fernandez.
 

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Honestly, only when she reached the final and that it was against another teenager. I'm english so my natural sporting state is pessimism and despair (especially when following the wolves and england)
At the final 4, I wanted Sakkari to win but I thought it was Sabalenka's tournament to lose. I thought Aryna will win but then we saw Leylah vs Emma.
 

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As the question is phrased, not until the umpire called it.

Fernandez was in the match and could have turned it around even from MP down. Obviously Emma was in a very good position after the second break in the second set (90% certain at least to win from that point on), but in conscience I couldn't have said she "would".

Before the final, I think I'd have called it 50/50.

Before the semi, well the IBM AI said 2/1 on for Sakkari match and that seemed fair to me, and if Emma did get past that, the expected odds for the final were also unfavourable, so I think I'd have put her chances at about 6 or 7 to 1 against prior to the semi.
 

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Only after the semi finals with the only question mark being would Emma overcome what happened at Wimbledon.
 

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When and how she beat Bencic. Given how confident Belinda was and how well she was playing I thought it would be a step too far at that point.

To see her comfortably handle Bencic the way she had her previous opponents was the revelation for me. If that had been a tough three setter than I would still have favored someone else.
 

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For "could", if I'd been asked, I'd have given something like 6/1 as fair odds before semi, 30/1 before QF, 80/1 before R16. In my heart of hearts, though, I didn't really believe there was a chance until she reached the final. Even when I was trying to be rational, I was too pessimistic.

I do wonder how close she was to winning Wimbledon. Waay closer than I thought at the time, I guess. I'd have said 1000/1 going into the Tomljanovic match. Maybe the panic attack was destined, but if not, she probably had a legitimate shot, 5% chance or so, at the title. Although Barty would still have been a really tough ask at that point of her, to use her word, trajectory.
 

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Discussion Starter · #40 ·
I do wonder how close she was to winning Wimbledon. Waay closer than I thought at the time, I guess. I'd have said 1000/1 going into the Tomljanovic match. Maybe the panic attack was destined, but if not, she probably had a legitimate shot, 5% chance or so, at the title. Although Barty would still have been a really tough ask at that point of her, to use her word, trajectory.
You know, that was exactly what I was thinking when she won the USO. I know she's a much improved player now from a few months ago, but if she hadn't had the issues she did, you wonder if she could have went further at Wimbledon. Barty was awaiting her in the QFs, so I doubt it would have went further than that.

She absolutely has got the game to win on grass.
 
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