[great smash]

Race to the year end no. 1

After todays final the Race to the chase looks as follows:

Justine Henin-Hardenne 6015
Kim Clijsters 5987

This a fair indication of how close they are in this race.

However towards the question who will end up year end no. 1 we also have to take into account only the best 17 results can be taken into account.

With Clijsters still playing 3 events and Henin 2

let's look at the sum of the 14 best for Kim, and 15 best for Henin-Hardenne:


What we get is the following:

Henin has 5914 with the possibility to add points in Zurich and LA
Clijsters has 5426 with the possibility to add points in Zurich, Luxemburg and LA

Basically if both have tournaments better than their current 16th, 17th, Clijsters has to win 488 more which is all in all not impossible since she is playing one tournament more than Justine for the remainder of the year.

It will be hard for Clijsters to keep the #1 but surely not impossible!

 

[Astro Jetson]

And indoors is Clijsters favourite and best surface, so she'll keep the no. 1, for sure.

 

[great smash]

And indoors is Clijsters favourite and best surface, so she'll keep the no. 1, for sure.

It'll be hard but look at the numbers, if she would win Luxemburg, basically she has to get about 300 points more than Justine in Zurich and LA combined. Hardly a done deal, and containing a lot of if's but not impossible.

 

[JennyS]

I think Justine is also playing Linz, where she is the defending champion.

I think it's all going to come down to who has the better performance in the WTA Championships. Kim has a ton of points (over 700?) to defend there and Justine has significantly fewer.

If Kim doesn't win the Championships, I think Justine will finish #1.

 

[great smash]

I think Justine is also playing Linz, where she is the defending champion.

I think it's all going to come down to who has the better performance in the WTA Championships. Kim has a ton of points (over 700?) to defend there and Justine has significantly fewer.

If Kim doesn't win the Championships, I think Justine will finish #1.

Your right things will probably be deiced by whoever gets furter in LA but:

1. Justine is not playing Linz (unless she changes her mind this week and asks for a WC)
2. The no. I'm giving are the race points, and in those points no need to mention that Kim won the Masters last year, there's no points dropping off there, only points to be won

 

[KoOlMaNsEaN]

Sooooo close

 

[great smash]

Sooooo close

The race points are really close indeed but in all fairness, you can't forget to look at the no. of tournaments played.

 

[Astro Jetson]

It'll be hard but look at the numbers, if she would win Luxemburg, basically she has to get about 300 points more than Justine in Zurich and LA combined. Hardly a done deal, and containing a lot of if's but not impossible.

Yeah I know, but I'm basing my prediction on what I saw in today's match and although the scores were much closer now, it was like the Kim and Justine from the beginning of the year. Which means: Kim dictating the points and Justine playing a lot of defensive and standing very far behind the baseline.

In Zurich, Justine has to face a lot of tough Russians which gave her much trouble already. She could loose early. I don't see Kim losing before the final. And I also can see Kim winning the Championships again, which is indoors.

Maybe I'm seeing too much in today's match....

 

[treufreund]

well justine will learn from her match today. she will see that she was too defensive in her positioning. also zurich is a slower surface where justine should be able to get her topspin groove on.

 

[disposablehero]

well justine will learn from her match today. she will see that she was too defensive in her positioning. also zurich is a slower surface where justine should be able to get her topspin groove on.

The reason Justine was too defensive is that Kim FINALLY realized that she can force Justine onto the defensive and keep her there.

 

[Martian KC]

You mean kim didn't figure it out during their first 2 meetings this year?

 

[disposablehero]

What it comes down to is Kim will have to run the table unless Justine loses to someone else somewhere.

 

[ys]

It is already obvious that to end year as #1 Kim almost certainly has to win both Zurich and LA. If Williams sisters play LA, it is a longshot.

 

[Toontje]

It would be close when Kim wins in Zurich, even when justine plays the final against Kim.

Round point more when Kim win the final = 82 points and 75 quality points for Justine = +157 points more.


Week of Tournament Points Result Tier
2003-08-25 U.S. Open 750 F Grand Slam
2003-05-26 Roland Garros 646 F Grand Slam
2003-03-03 Indian Wells 459 WON I
2003-06-23 Wimbledon 440 SF Grand Slam
2003-01-13 Australian Open 432 SF Grand Slam
2003-05-12 Rome 402 WON I
2003-01-06 Sydney 350 WON II
2003-08-04 Los Angeles 298 WON II
2003-05-05 Berlin 295 F I
2003-07-21 Stanford 264 WON II
2003-10-06 Filderstadt 383 F II
2003-07-28 San Diego 237 F II
2003-03-17 Miami 235 SF I
2003-02-10 Antwerp 235 F II
2003-06-16 's-Hertogenbosch 208 WON III
2003-02-24 Scottsdale 170 F II
+157 points more for 17th tournament
--------------------------------------
5957 points



Race Points
Week of Tournament Points Result Tier
2003-05-26 Roland Garros 1156 WON Grand Slam
2003-08-25 U.S. Open 1074 WON Grand Slam
2003-01-13 Australian Open 460 SF Grand Slam
2003-05-05 Berlin 440 WON I
2003-04-07 Charleston 420 WON I
2003-08-11 Toronto 401 WON I
2003-07-28 San Diego 391 WON II
2003-06-23 Wimbledon 370 SF Grand Slam
2003-02-17 Dubai 324 WON II
2003-10-06 Filderstadt 247 F II
2003-09-22 Leipzig 159 F II
2003-04-14 Amalia Island 127 SF II
2003-01-06 Sydney 126 SF II
2003-06-16 's-Hertogenbosch 114 F III
2003-02-10 Antwerp 105 SF II
2003-03-17 Miami 101 QF I
(kim get 157 points more for that 17th tournament)
-----------------------------------------
6015

Luxemburg would give Kim more points then last year ,due to more higher ranked players, that would be enough to surpase Justine before The Championships.

1 CLIJSTERS, KIM BEL
2 DEMENTIEVA, ELENA RUS
3 RUBIN, CHANDA USA
4 MALEEVA, MAGDALENA BUL

Besides, winning SF from Justine in LA would be enough, that would give Kim 164 round points more!

 

[ys]

But all this is just a mathematical exercise. Honors for this year are already shared between The Tigress and The Cheetah. The yearend #1 would really matter if decided between them. Now Kim will be fighting for Serena's right to claim that she is one of the two best players of the year, not the second best.

 

[Toontje]

Yes,this is just a mathematic exercise........justine could lose in the second round next week.

Kim wins every indoor tournament in the coming weeks!
Justine doesn't have much change to be #1 at years end!

 

[ys]

Yes,this is just a mathematic exercise........justine could lose in the second round next week.

Kim wins every indoor tournament in the coming weeks!
Justine doesn't have much change to be #1 at years end!

Justine could as well call it the year. Would change nothing. Really, Kim's year end #1 at this point has no sense. It might make a bit more sense though if she wins AO.

 

[lizchris]

The best chance for Justine to end the year at number one is to either win the Y/E Championships or for Kim to lose before she does. The only thing certain about the Y/E Championships is that Kim will have etiehr 100 or 200 poimts coming off her ranking points.

 

[justine&coria]

I think Justine is also playing Linz, where she is the defending champion.

I think it's all going to come down to who has the better performance in the WTA Championships. Kim has a ton of points (over 700?) to defend there and Justine has significantly fewer.

If Kim doesn't win the Championships, I think Justine will finish #1.

I hope she doesn't play LInz .
Today, she seemed a bit tired, though she had some very great points !
I would like her to skip Zurich , then why not playing Linz ! But I think she won't change her schedule = Zurich, and the Year End Chamsp (no Linz)!
it's the end of the year, and Justine is not an athlete as CLijsters is !
I don't want her to fail at the Year End champs !

 

[Ted of Teds Tennis]

Justine will be taking 2-1/2 weeks off between the final of Zürich and the first match in LA (although she does have to be in LA earlier to fulfill media obligations).

That ought to be enough time for her not to be tired.