Why do you nitpick? Of course I don't mean
literally... it was more a whimsical comment on the bad luck Emma has experienced this year.
Uh, I didn’t mean to come across as aggressive.
I’ve seen posts (not by you) stating that recent bad luck means she will be luckier in the near future, or that she was due some bad luck this year because of the good luck she had at USO.
Neither of these makes any sense from a statistical point of view. Bad and good luck average out in the long term (like if you throw a dice 6 million times you’re getting
close to 1 million times for each of the 6 results
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers )
But they don’t on the single test / short term (if you throw a dice 5 times and you get 1,2,3,4,5, on the sixth throw you’re as likely to get a 6 as any other number, a six is NOT more likely).
I know you don’t believe this stuff but I’ve seen people seriously believe that luck compensates in the short term, that’s why I said this.
It’s not a dig at you. Sorry if it appeared that way.
Of course we can believe that she will turn it around in the near future but that’s more for tennis reasons (which are
not entirely stochastic processes), like saying “she will find form in hc swing”
But the
purely stochastic processes like draws, aren’t any more or less likely to be favourable or unfavourable because of recent results.
www.thetimes.co.uk
www.bbc.co.uk
