[Aaron.]

I know people are going to try to refute this because they'll take it as a dig to Serena, but Rybakina's serve is on par with Serena's in terms of stats.

Now Serena obviously sustained this over a whole career but Rybakina is on the right path.

Here are stats from Serena's QF match against Halep @ Indian Wells in 2016. I wanted to use a match from the same tournament against a similar opponent (Halep was one of the best returners in 2016)

2016 Indian Wells QF - Serena def. Halep 6-4, 6-3
7 aces
82% Points Won 1st Serve
47% Points Won 2nd Serve

stats from Rybakina against Swiatek tonight, same tournament, quality returner

2023 Indian Wells SF - Rybakina def. Swiatek 6-2, 6-2
7 aces
80% Points Won 1st Serve
47% Points Won 2nd Serve

I wonder if someone can pull stats from more matches, I don't have the time right now, but it's clear Rybakina is the best server since Serena, and is on par with her in terms of serve stats.

 

[icyyy]

If Elena can do it like Serena for over 20 years then maybe.

 

[ishgever]

Her serve is extremely effective no doubt. I feel that in Serena's prime there were more aggressive returners than there are today, which may contribute to this effectiveness of Rybakina's serve, but maybe that's just nostalgia talking.

So yeah, maybe her serve is going to be the biggest in women's tennis since Serena's?

That being said, I think Serena's serve had more variety and disguise.

 

[Aaron.]

If Elena can do it like Serena for over 20 years then maybe.

Well a players biggest weapon doesn't just dissapear overnight.

And people forget Serena had periods of time where her serve was lackluster. From 2004-2007 her serve was just meh. I think her serve peak was around 2010-2012 when she started working with Patrick.

 

[Queen_Of_Spray]

When it goes in and she's feeling it, its a beauty to behold, but against Iga she never serves that well for some reason. But it at least sets up the point after a few groundies.

 

[Aaron.]

Her serve is extremely effective no doubt. I feel that in Serena's prime there were more aggressive returners than there are today, which may contribute to this effectiveness of Rybakina's serve, but maybe that's just nostalgia talking.

So yeah, maybe her serve is going to be the biggest in women's tennis since Serena's?

That being said, I think Serena's serve had more variety and disguise.

Courts are slower now which also helps returners. Serena's peak on serve was like 2010-2014 IMO.

 

[RoS]

Serena serve was leagues above Rybakina (and we aren't talking about their baseline games)

Serena serve placement and disguise was and will remain unparalleled, like it was with Sampras and Federer

 

[Aaron.]

Serena serve was leagues above Rybakina (and we aren't talking about their baseline games)

Serena serve placement and disguise was and will remain unparalleled, like it was with Sampras and Federer

Based on what thought? Do you have stats?

 

[RoS]

Based on what thought? Do you have stats?

It was almost impossible to break Serena when she was serving at her best. And Serena faced tougher and stronger opponents at her area. Venus, Henin, 2012-2013 Azarenka were more complete players than the actual champions except 1GA, and I think 1GA would be destroyed by Serena at her prime

 

[Aaron.]

2023 Rybakina Serve Stats (14 matches)
1st serve percentage - 56.7%
1st serve points won - 75.9%
2nd serve points won - 52.5%
Overall Serve Points Won - 65.8%
Service Games Held - 82.8%

2022 Rybakina Serve Stats (57 matches)
1st serve percentage - 55.4%
1st serve points won - 72.2%
2nd serve points won - 51.9%
Overall Serve Points Won - 63.1%
Service Games Held - 78.2%

Women’s Tennis Records and Statistics | WTA Tennis

Keep track of your favorite female players on the official Women’s Tennis Association website. H1 Tag: Women’s Tennis Records and Statistics

www.wtatennis.com

Gonna see if i can find Serena's from 2010-2014.

 

[Aaron.]

It was almost impossible to break Serena when she was serving at her best. And Serena faced tougher and stronger opponents at her area. Venus, Henin, 2012-2013 Azarenka were more complete players than the actual champions except 1GA, and I think 1GA would be destroyed by Serena at her prime

Rybakina is winning 83% of service games in 2023 and that's without Serena's movement, groundstrokes, etc...

 

[ys]

Her serve is very similar to what Maria had early in her career. People tend to forget a great serve Sharapova had before shoulder issues surfaced.
I have some fear that Lenochka with her non-muscular build can have this problem. Hopefully not.

 

[goldenlox]

Sabalenka is tough to return also. The AO was legit. Sabalenka is 17-1 this year and Rybakina is becoming a big match player, but still only the 1 title in a weakened field that did NOT have Sabalenka

 

[TERRASTAR18]

Rybakina is winning 83% of service games in 2023 and that's without Serena's movement, groundstrokes, etc...

Or Serena's better competition

 

[TERRASTAR18]

Her serve is very similar to what Maria had early in her career. People tend to forget a great serve Sharapova had before shoulder issues surfaced.
I have some fear that Lenochka with her non-muscular build can have this problem. Hopefully not.

If she has a better base she will be OK. Maria used too much arm.

 

[Aaron.]

Serena Williams 2010 Serve Stats (29 matches)
1st serve percentage - 62%
1st serve points won - 75.3%
2nd serve points won - 45.7%
Overall Serve Points Won - 64.1%
Service Games Held - 81.4%

Serena Williams 2011 Serve Stats (25 matches)
1st serve percentage - 59%
1st serve points won - 76.7%
2nd serve points won - 52.9%
Overall Serve Points Won - 66.9%
Service Games Held - 85.4%

 

[Aaron.]

Serena Williams 2012 Serve Stats (58 matches)
1st serve percentage - 59.6%
1st serve points won - 77.8%
2nd serve points won - 54%
Overall Serve Points Won - 68.2%
Service Games Held - 87.5%

2012 was PEAK ServeRena.

Serena Williams 2013 Serve Stats (80 matches)
1st serve percentage - 62.2%
1st serve points won - 74.7%
2nd serve points won - 51.2%
Overall Serve Points Won - 65.8%
Service Games Held - 84.1%

 

[Aaron.]

Ok this is where it gets interesting. No doubt Serena 2012-2013 is a better server. No one is coming close to that obviously.

Serena Williams 2014 Serve Stats (80 matches)
1st serve percentage - 59%
1st serve points won - 74.7%
2nd serve points won - 50.3%
Overall Serve Points Won - 64.7%
Service Games Held - 80.9%

Rybakina's 2023 serve stats edge this by a bit. Although less matches so we'll have to see.

 

[Aaron.]

Serena Williams 2015 Serve Stats (53 matches)
1st serve percentage - 57.7%
1st serve points won - 75.9%
2nd serve points won - 48.8%
Overall Serve Points Won - 64.4%
Service Games Held - 81.1%

Serena Williams 2016 Serve Stats (41 matches)
1st serve percentage - 61.1%
1st serve points won - 75.7%
2nd serve points won - 50.2%
Overall Serve Points Won - 65.8%
Service Games Held - 83.8%

 

[EveLangElCoup]

Disguise depends hugely on toss. You would have to watch footage of Rybakinas' toss when serving to different locations on court. To decipher if it has great disguise you would have to log the height of toss, toss line variability, standing position, motion to ball impact and any other inconsistencies. Then rate the variables on a sliding scale when serving different locations, do the same for Serena, and then compare both players' serve footage.

Serena's toss was close to uniform no matter where she served.