[Volcana]

For those of you wondering how the #1 ranking is shaping up, Venus getting to #1 is not ineviatable. (See, I do not call down the wrath of the Gods.)

She has to play. And win. If she doesn't win, her points are stagnant til Miami.

02-11-02 (This week)

01 4825 17 Capriati
02 4481 14 Williams

02-18-02 (Drop Oklahoma City points from last year)

01 4684 17 Capriati
02 4481 14 Williams + Antwerp

02-25-02 (Drop Scottsdale points from last year)

01 4582 17 Capriati
02 4481 14 Williams + Antwerp + Dubai

03-18-02 (Drop Miami points from last year)

01 4291 17 Capriati
02 4038 14 Williams + Antwerp + Dubai

Assuming they both play Miami, Venus and Jenn should enter the tournament knowing that if either of them win it, they are #1. Making the finals in Antwerp and Dubai is probably sufficient.

 

[Monica_Rules]

Venus will become number 1 after Dubai if she does well in them both!If Jenny doesn't defned points in miami she will stay number 2 if Venus doesn;t win or isn't runner up in Miami and Jenny does well she'll be number 1!

 

[LucasArg]

I don't get it, if Venus wins Dubai she has the exactly same points

It is not clear to me.

 

[Volcana]

LucasArg - Sorry my bad. I wasn't clear. I have no idea how many points Venus will earn. So I wrote

'4481 14 Williams + Antwerp'

It should really be '4481 + Antwerp 14 Williams'. But then it doesn't line up as well. I can be incredibly obsessive/compulsive about stuff like that. If Venus wins Antwerp and Dubai, she'l have almost 5000 points.

 

[LucasArg]

So, Venus can reach n#1 after Dubai

 

[Vanity]

oh shut up already

 

[Dawn Marie]

Hey thanks Volcana for the stats it is appreciated.. lol


Go Venus remain healthy and just do your best the #1 will come in time.

 

[treufreund]

Volcana,

Venus will be #1 and I like your post but you forgot the following thing.


Capriati + Scottsdale before Miami (she could defend or gain points in Scottsdale so her point total going into the Ericsson will be different.)

 

[Rollo]

---and Venus loses points from last years Indian Wells-where she isn't playing this year. This could go either way up to and past Miami. Should Venus play and do well at Amelia Island, then she
SHOULD get to the top slot at least a short while.
Her big pick up should come at the French, where she bombed out last year in the first.

 

[Volcana]

I'm hoping they have to play each other in the Miami final again. And you're right, I have to add potential Scottsdale points for Jenn, and drop IW for Venus. So I think this means Jenn will likely still be #1 at Miami, by a small margin. Assuming Venus at least makes the finals the next couple weeks. I'm sure the rest of the tour will have something to say.

 

[veronica]

GO VENUS!

I think this is correct.

If Venus can gain 316 points between the Antwerp & Dubai tournies, she will be Number one the week of 2/25/02.

Capriati, however will (most likely) go back to Number one the following week - after her Scottsdale points are added and the IW points drop off (week of 3/4/02)

Capriati should stay Number one through Miami and the american Clay court tournies because she is not defending IW points. It is almost as if JenCap is one tourney ahead of Venus.

If Venus does show for Amelia Island and holds her seed, she could regain ground there - setting up a back and forth battle for Number one up until Roland Garros.

They both have "some" points to defend in the Euro-clay tournaments.

Injuries withstanding, it will be interesting to see how Seles factors into who is Number one going into Wimby. A lot should depend on how many clay tournies she enters and who draws her the majority of the time. No one will want her in their Quarter.

 

[moon]

wow, this is all very exciting!

but I have a question. looking at the ratings for next week, it's looks like if Venus gains more than 250 points this week, she can get to #1. Is this true? She gained 280something points this week (I read somewhere), and that was without Jelena's quality points, so isn't it possible that she can make 250 points?

also, I don't think Jen is a definite to earn more points at Scottsdale. she made it to the semis last year, and if Monica and Serena both show up, one of them will be on her side of the draw. I don't think it's open and shut that she will beat either of them and be able to improve on her point total.

 

[TeeRexx]

Moon - Very good points, as usual, my friend.

Also, last year VENUS won at Hamburg, but lost in the round of 16 to Henin at Berlin before blowing out at RG.

 

[Bright Red]

Venus will ascend to her proper place at last - despite the screwy ranking system.

 

[treufreund]

Monica is not playing at Scottsdale and Serena should be healthy by then but she could be on Martina's half of the draw or not show up at all if she is not 100%. I suspect Serena will show up since she is beginning to fall in the rankings and will lose her tons of points from IW as well as has semifinalist points to defend in Miami.

I would be very surprised if Venus does not get it this week or next. Hopefully Martina will beat Jenn in Scottsdale and the race will be very close between Jenn and Venus. Then Martina could pick up points at Indian Wells. Martina only has 349 points at Miami and Indian Wells in total to defend so she can really begin to close the gap and Venus and Jenn. Also look for Monica to continue to climb and rack up points. By Wimbledon's end we could easily see a four way battle for #1 between Jennifer, Venus, Martina and Monica.

 

[Fingon]

Moon, the answer is no.

Venus can make probably over 300 points if she wins this tournament, but she is dropping off 113 points from last year's Nice.

About projecting the rankings so far ahead, I don't think it can't be done, substracting points alone doesn't make it, and there are too many tournament and too many possible situation to make a prediction IMO.

We know how many points they are going to drop off, and we have a rough idea about what tournaments they are going to play, but we have Antwerp, Dubai, Menphis, Indian Wells, Scottsdale and Ericsson in the equation, even with a supercomputer it would be very difficult to create scenarios, and that's if we consider only probable results, Venus is not likely to lose to a low ranked player but it can happen, Jenn lost to Alexandra Stevenson in Sydney, they can withdraw, they can enter a tournament they are not committed to, other players can do really well and screw everything up. The only certain element is Davenport not playing any of those tournaments, other than that, it's too early to go so far.

I only dare to predict what can happen after this week, and I know Venus won't be # 1 at the end of this week, after that, who knows?

 

[moon]

thanks Fingon.
I wasn't sure if her Nice points had come off yet.

 

[BrianII]

I don't know that this is altogether correct, looking at the ranking
table in the stats section it shows venus ponits from last years nice coming off this week ..which is probably right since I think doha and nice were played in the same week and martina's doha ponts are coming off too...... so in effect venus is defending points at antwerp ..about 113 pts so I think the line should read
02 4368 14 Williams + Antwerp etc....
I hope I'm not misreading the ranking table.