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Which tier will produce the next RG Champion

  • First tier: Ana, Safina, Serena, Kuznetsova

    Votes: 78 49.4%
  • Second tier: Jankovic, Venus, Dementieva, Vaidisova

    Votes: 50 31.6%
  • Third tier: Schnyder, Groenfeld, Chakvetadze, Kanepi, Nazarro

    Votes: 8 5.1%
  • Other

    Votes: 22 13.9%
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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
Looking at RG quarterfinalists of the past three years (for which draws are available), there have been 17 different players get to at least one quarterfinal. Of those, 13 are active players who are likely to play RG. Four players: Henin, Clijsters, and Hingis are retired; and Sharapova is currently injured and unlikely to play.

The remaining thirteen are: Ivanovic, Jankovic, Safina, Kuznetsova, Williamsx2, Vaidisova, Dementieva, Groenefeld, Chakvetadze, Kanepi, and Nazarro and Schnyder.

Of those: Kuznetsova is the only one to reach the QF 3/3 of the past three years. Safina, Ivanovic, Jankovic, and Vaidisova have been a QF 2/3 of the past three times.

Among those who have only made the QF once in the past three years, you have three top eight players (WilliamsX2, Dementieva), one prior Champion (S. Williams), and two RG finalists (Venus and Dementieva)

That leaves the bottom tier of one time QF without ever being in contention of the final.

Giving: three points to prior champions, 2 points to prior finalists, 1 point for each QF of the past three year, the results would be:


Ana: 3 + 2 + 2=7
Kuznetsova: 2 + 3=5
Safina: 2 + 2=4
Serena: 3 + 1=4

Venus: 2 + 1=3
Dementieva: 2 + 1=3
Jankovic: 2
Vaidisova: 2

All others have 1 point with one QF appearance.

Consequently, based on the past three years, the top contenders would be grouped this way:

First tier: Ana, Safina, Serena, Kuznetsova
Second tier: Jankovic, Venus, Dementieva, Vaidisova
Third tier: Schnyder, Groenefeld, Chakvetadze, Kanepi, Nazarro

Will next RG be from top tier, second tier, third tier or outside this group of 13?

DISCUSS
 
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1) Why even have a third tier we all know none of them are winning RG.
2) Some of these names are questionable i.e. Vaidisova being listed as 8th favorite to win a slam much less a Tier TEN tournament.
3) The contenders are fit/healthy Serena Williams, Dinara Safina, Jelena Jankovic, and in form Ana Ivanovic.
 

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Discussion Starter #3
Six of the eight players in the top tiers probably won't be able to meet until the quarters, leaving two dangerous floaters: Ana and Nicole.

Neither have been playing well, but their records at RG are exceptional. Ana is the only active player to have both a final and a win. And Nicole is the only active player other than Kuznetsova would has made the QF or better the past three years!
 

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Discussion Starter #4
1) Why even have a third tier we all know none of them are winning RG.
2) Some of these names are questionable i.e. Vaidisova being listed as 8th favorite to win a slam much less a Tier TEN tournament.
3) The contenders are fit/healthy Serena Williams, Dinara Safina, Jelena Jankovic, and in form Ana Ivanovic.
Ok. but based on what criteria?

I stated mine. Vaidisova hasn't been playing well, but she has made the QF 3/3 times for the past three years. Given that the QF has been seen 17 different players, reaching the QF three times straight indicates a pretty good record. I wouldn't have listed Nicole off the top of my head either, which is why looking at the record was revealing.
 

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lmao at Vaidisova being a second tier favorite!!!!!!!

you meant second tier favorite to lose in the first round
 

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Okay I'm not going to argue with you. And didn't Nicole lose R1 to Benesova in '08. You lost overall when you mentioned Vaidisova as even a semblance of a contender for a slam in her current state among other things.
 

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Giving: three points to prior champions, 2 points to prior finalists, 1 point for each QF of the past three year, the results would be:


Ana: 3 + 2 + 2=7
Kuznetsova: 2 + 3=5
Safina: 2 + 2=4
Serena: 3 + 1=4

Venus: 2 + 1=3
Dementieva: 2 + 1=3
Jankovic: 2
Vaidisova: 2

DISCUSS
Ana : 7???
3R in 2006 = 0
RU in 2007 = 2
WON in 2008 = 3

Kuznetsova : 5???
RU in 2006 = 2
QF in 2007 = 1
SF in 2008 = 1

Safina : 4???
QF in 2006 = 1
4R in 2007 = 0
RU in 2008 = 2

Am I missing something?
 

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On a separate but related note, I'm thinking of having my breastbone surgically removed. Sure, it'll cause some inconvenience in everyday situations, but on the other hand I'm thinking it will make it less painful now that the spring/summer is here and Lena D. is getting ready to RIP my freakin' HEART right out of my CHEST three times (FO, Wimby, USO) in rapid succession.

I realize this speaks volumes about my feelings about Elena's chances at RG and my own issues with various female archetypes (Madonna, Whore, le belle dame sans merci etc.) but I think I'm trying to deal with it in a rational, constructive way.

This borderline stalkingworshipthegroundshewalkson/hateuntilshegigglesorwinsaTierIIorIseeanoldpicwithbangs relationship is really unhealthy.
 
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Discussion Starter #17 (Edited)
Ana : 7???
3R in 2006 = 0
RU in 2007 = 2
WON in 2008 = 3

Kuznetsova : 5???
RU in 2006 = 2
QF in 2007 = 1
SF in 2008 = 1

Safina : 4???
QF in 2006 = 1
4R in 2007 = 0
RU in 2008 = 2

Am I missing something?
The criteria are separate:
Ana: won (3), finaled (2), made QF 2/3 of past three years
Kuznetsova: finaled (2), made QF 3/3 of past three years
Safina: finaled (2), made QF 2/3 of past three years

The last criteria is to take into consideration who has been consistent in the past three years. Serena won, but has only been to QF once in past three years. Similarly, Venus and Elena have both been finalist, but only been in the QF in the past three years. Otherwise, using just the first two criteria would overweigh best results and undervalue recent performance.
 

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I'm going to say:

Safina
Maybe I'm bias and jumping the gun, but if her last match was a sign of anything then her form of 08 is returning - which will take a lot of stopping, especially on clay. If she can put her game & head back together in time then I don't see why she can't win. She has already experienced two slam finals so she has enough experience I think.

Jankovic
She is another player who seems to be finding her form again. Her best surface is definately clay & would probably have won last year if she hasn't lost to Ana. Now that she's reached a GS final before winning is much less of a step up. Jankovic is definately a tough player to beat when you're not playing your best which very few are at the moment.

Elena
I think this might be Elena's best chance to win a slam, I know people have said it before but given the feild is so week and her talent on clay then it's possible. She can't be a nutcase forever, now that her serve is so much improved then one of her major weaknesses is no longer a problem.

I'd rather wait until after Rome to see how fit Serena is and too see if Lisicki keeps up her level of play until I pick a single favourite. But I think these three are definately contenders!
 

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Discussion Starter #19
Hell no she didn't. His facts are wrong and his judgment is obviously delusional.
Relax. OK!

I made a mistake on Nicole, but she's been in the QF 2/3 of the past three years. And I've said that I know she isn't playing well. But, who would have predicted Myskina prior to her win.

I didn't make a judgment. I just assessed the criterion that I used. Again, feel free to come up with your own.

I could have included as a criterion, non RG clay court titles for example. The results would have been like this:

Venus: 8
Jankovic: 4
Safina: 3

Serena, Ana, Dementieva, Vaidisova: 2

Kuznetsova: 0:help:

But winning clay court titles doesn't seem to be a great predictor of RG success among this group anyway. Venus would be far and away the top contender and Ana despite having the best RG record of the group with a win and a final, would not be in the top tier. Serena would slide down and Jankovic would move up!
 
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