the 2025 points and rankings show how much Gauff has to defend. Iga should be a close #2 by the YEC
The US Open will be very interesting, very important for Sabalenka, who has not played her best in the last 2 major losses

 

For Iga to overtake Aryna it will probably require Iga to win the US Open again. Somehow that doesn't seem too unlikely. It feels very possible.

 

There are several 1000s US Open and YEC
But who wins the US Open is big because its 2000 points.
Sabalenka is good on hard court, but she isnt playing well since that 3rd set vs Iga in Paris. She struggled with Siegemund and Raducanu, and obviously, losing the last 2 sets to Gauff, again, might be how she's remembered, unless she wins a lot more majors
I wouldnt even know how to make US Open odds now. Swiatek and Sabalenka co favorites? Gauff 3rd, Mirra 4th, then Pegula, who isnt winning it
Last 5 NY winners
Sabalenka
Gauff
Swiatek
Raducanu
Osaka

 

Sabalenka 7395
Swiatek 5983


I didnt think Sabalenka played well at Wimbledon. Her draw fell apart yet she struggled round after round
Dont know what to expect from her
Swiatek wants to be #1 again. I expect her to be as focused as ever. People thought she was shattered after Paris and instead she was never better
But will she keep this form? She was trying her best all year with no final until grass

 

We're also gonna be saying goodbye to Qinwen Zheng

 

I’m sure she’ll reinvigorate at the China Swing and replace a lot of points when most other players don’t give a fig.

 

The cutoff last year was 4,540 points, which was Qinwen at 7th. Navarro would have qualified in 8th with 3,568 points, but Krejcikova got the slam winner WC. Assuming there isn't some wild US Open winner, the current top 5 are in a really strong position to qualify.

Most others seem to be competing for the final three spots, so Anisimova, Pegula, and Paolini are the most vulnerable. There's a 709 point difference between Anisimova in 6th and Paolini in 8th, and another five players are within 700 points of Paolini. You'd think that there will be a lot of turnover in the 8th spot until the end of the year.

 

Surprising that Mirra had even more to defend than I6A

Mirra will remain top 5 unless she flop everywhere. Pegula and Qinwen have a shitload of points to defend

The battle against Sabalenka and I6A is interesting. It's 2023 again when I6A was 1300 points behind Sabalenka after the USO and still narrowly catched the #1. Will she do it again ?
Sabalenka will have the pressure now to defend her last den.

 

There will be a changeover at the YEC. Still have Swiatek, Sabalenka, Gauff, Pegula
Out for Zheng, Rybakina, Paolini, Navarro
In for Keys, Anisimova, Andreeva
Swiatek was suspended last fall, so she had very few points. Andreeva had a lousy US Open, but won a 250, had another final and QF in Beijing & Cincy

 

I suppose it’s slightly different from this thread 👼

https://www.tennisforum.com/threads/2025-wta-race-to-the-finals-cheering-thread-🚙🏇🏁🛫.1423969/

 

One would assume Iga could be #1 again early in 2026, we won't know til September or October but with zero titles the first few months of the year it won't take much

 

It depends on Sabalenka also. She didnt play well in UK, and if she is still off a bit, then Swiatek can catch her this year
Sabalenka struggled with Raducanu and Siegemund. That kind of form will get her beat this summer
I want to see Swiatek's form also. 20 games in a row on grass, this form will get her to #1 if she holds it

 

I will say that both of those players did play the match of their lives. And Grass helps players like Raducanu as it gives her shots more pop.

 

I think Saba will continue her "Miss Consistency" All the way until end of this season.
Final, SF, QF in all tournament she gonna play.

IGA need to win it all ....to be world No.1 again.

 

The big points difference is NY. If Swiatek or Sabalenka win it, its 2000 points.
YEC is a lot of points also
so 1400 is not that big if you win a big one

 

Canada and Cincy will be interesting to see Swiatek and Sabalenka's form. Swiatek coming off a huge historic win, Sabalenka not making a major final for the first time in over a year
Sabalenka stunk after she lost AO and wasnt good at Wimbledon, so she might need some matches to get focused
Swiatek's big wins are in Paris and she had not dome well on grass afterwards
So we need to see where they are mentally

 

Canada and Cincy will be interesting to see Swiatek and Sabalenka's form. Swiatek coming off a huge historic win, Sabalenka not making a major final for the first time in over a year
Sabalenka stunk after she lost AO and wasn't good at Wimbledon, so she might need some matches to get focused
Swiatek's big wins are in Paris and she had not dome well on grass afterwards
So we need to see where they are mentally

Saba stunk? She had by far her best first half of the year outside of Aus, winning what 2 masters? Plus being a lot more consistent. Last year it took her until Stuttgart to find form. This is why she has as many ranking points as she does.

 

Sabalenka lost early right after AO, and after she beat Swiatek and won set 1 from Gauff, she isnt playing well. Lost 2 sets to Gauff and Anisimova and struggles against Raducanu, Siegemund
The whole tour changed after she won set 1 from Gauff. Now she is 3 majors behind Swiatek and only 1 ahead of Gauff

 

Big change in the race to #1! Sabalenka skipping Canada 1000 and has a huge amount of points to defend in Cincy & US Open
Iga can be right behind in 2025 points going to NY

Current 2025 points a gap of 1412
Sabalenka 7395
Swiatek 5983
Gauff 4609
Keys 4105
Andreeva 4024

 

Big change in the race to #1! Sabalenka skipping Canada 1000 and has a huge amount of points to defend in Cincy & US Open
Iga can be right behind in 2025 points going to NY

Current 2025 points a gap of 1412
Sabalenka 7395
Swiatek 5983

Iga could also be comfortably in front going to the US Open. All she needs to do is win both, or win one and reach the final in the other (with Sabalenka out early in Cincinnati).

 

i def see a scenario where iga wins the us open and finishes the year number 2, but wins player of the year. or that's what i'd like to see.

 

yes the race rankings is what to look at for year end.
That way it is in-material as to points dropping from ranking points.

 

Definitely looks like a race now, 1400 points and Sabalenka not playing Canada
If Iga is close after the US Open, you know she will go after it in China and Saudi

 

Yes, that is the story, in 2025 points, Iga is only 1412 back and can close that up with Sabalenka skipping Canada 1000

 

On July 12
Sabalenka 7395
Swiatek 5983
Gauff 4609

Now
Sab 7859
Swiatek 7343
Gauff 5184

Right now, Keys Anisimova and Andreeva could replace Zheng Navarro Paolini, who is 9, Alexandrova is 10

 

Sabalenka will stray #1 in the 52 weeks rankings when the major is over, but Swiatek can still take the lead in 2025 points

 

I think Aryna will maintain her ranking till the end of the year. Probably early 26 is when she will lose it. Needs to avoid her habitually bad Middle East swing. This is usually when swiatek accumulates a lot of points while Aryna is very weak.

 

Big major for Sabalenka! 2025 - points

Sabalenka 9610
Swiatek 7533
Gauff 5184
Anisimova 4908

 

Cant believe how close Anisimova is to Gauff. If she shows up in the fall a top 3 year end ranking is very possible. What a great year shes had.

 

Yea, this seals the deal on YE #1 too. Iga will probably grab Beijing and some other 500 as per while the Queen of Wuhan will do her duty and hope to go far enough at the YEC.