Following up on Volcana's post of who people thought most likely to fall out of the top 10, i have studied the top 10's of each year since 1996 to establish a pattern of their make-up, and who by the numbers is most likely to fill the end of year rankings for 2002. Below are the top 10's of each year since 1996. Below them lies a series of precedents set by these examples.
1996: Year End (previous year in Brackets)<br />1. Steffi Graf (1)<br />2. Monica Seles (1)<br />2. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario (3)<br />3. Jana Novotna (11)<br />4. Martina Hingis (16)<br />5. Conchita Martinez (2)<br />6. Anke Huber (10)<br />7. Iva Majoli (9)<br />8. Kimiko Date (4)<br />9. Lindsay Davenport (12)<br />10. Barbara Paulus (23)
1997: Year End (previous year in Brackets)<br />1. Martina Hingis(1)<br />2. Jana Novotna(3)<br />3. Lindsay Davenport (9)<br />4. Amanda Coetzer(17)<br />5. Monica Seles (2)<br />6. Iva Majoli(7)<br />7. Mary Pierce (20)<br />8. Irina Spirlea(11)<br />9. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario (2)<br />10. Mary Joe fernandez (14)
1998: Year End (previous year in Brackets)<br />1.Lindsay Davenport (3)<br />2.Martina Hingis (1)<br />3. Jana Novotna (2)<br />4. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario(9)<br />5. Venus Williams(22)<br />6. Monica Seles(5)<br />7. Mary Pierce (7)<br />8. Conchita Martinez (12)<br />9. Steffi Graf (28)<br />10. Nathalie Tauziat(11)
1999: Year End (previous year in Brackets)<br />1.Martina Hingis(2)<br />2.Lindsay Davenport(1)<br />3. Venus Williams(5)<br />4. Serena Williams(20)<br />5. Mary Pierce(7)<br />6. Monica Seles(5)<br />7. Nathalie Tauziat(10)<br />8. Barbara Schett (23)<br />9. Julie Harlard Decugis (22)<br />10. Amelie Muresmo (29)
2000(previous year in Brackets)<br />1.Martina Hingis(1)<br />2.Lindsay Davenport(2)<br />3. Venus Williams(3)<br />4. Monica Seles (6)<br />5. Conchita Martinez (15)<br />6. Serena Williams (4)<br />7. Mary Pierce (5)<br />8. Anna Kournikova (12)<br />9. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario (17)<br />10. Nathalie Tauziat (7)
2001 (previous year in brackets)<br />1. Lindsay Davenport (2)<br />2. Jennifer Capriati (14)<br />3. Venus Williams (3)<br />4. Martina Hingis (1)<br />5. Kim Clijsters (18)<br />6. Serena Williams (6)<br />7. Justine Henin (48)<br />8. Jelena Dokic (26)<br />9. Amelie Mauresmo (16)<br />10. Monica Seles (4)
PRECEDENTS
1. Two Top 5 players will fall out of top 5<br />2. 1 new top five entry will be ranked within the top 14<br />3. One new top 5 entry will be ranked between 15-25.<br />4. The no.8 player will fall from the top ten to be replaced by a player ranked between 11-30<br />5. The No.10 position will usually be filled by a veteran.<br />6. The No.6 position will be filled by a current top 10 member<br />7. Atleast 3 (usually 4) players will leave the top 10, atleast 1 player will return to the top 10 and there will be atleast 1 new top 10 player.
these trends belie wahat many have been saying about this top 10 being pretty solid and most don't think it will change very much. I tend to agree but history is often a great pointer to the future and we must respect it. Paying credence to this trend I cautiously predict the following and how they comply with the pattern.
1 (3). Venus Williams <br />2 (4). Martina Hingis <br />3 (1). Lindsay Davenport<br />4 (6). Serena Williams (new top 5, from top 14)<br />5 (15). Elena Dementieva (new top 5, from 15-25)<br />6 (2). Jennifer Capriati (falling from top 5)<br />7 (5). Kim Clijsters (current top 10 member, falls from top 5)<br />8 (12). Meghann Shaughnessy (new top 10 player)<br />9 (10). Monica Seles <br />10 (19). Amanda Coetzer (veteran, returning member)
It may not seem to realsitic, but it is true to history which is always a good pointer.
try making your own top 10's based on thses rules
[ December 17, 2001: Message edited by: tennisaddict. ]
[ December 17, 2001: Message edited by: tennisaddict. ]</p>
1996: Year End (previous year in Brackets)<br />1. Steffi Graf (1)<br />2. Monica Seles (1)<br />2. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario (3)<br />3. Jana Novotna (11)<br />4. Martina Hingis (16)<br />5. Conchita Martinez (2)<br />6. Anke Huber (10)<br />7. Iva Majoli (9)<br />8. Kimiko Date (4)<br />9. Lindsay Davenport (12)<br />10. Barbara Paulus (23)
1997: Year End (previous year in Brackets)<br />1. Martina Hingis(1)<br />2. Jana Novotna(3)<br />3. Lindsay Davenport (9)<br />4. Amanda Coetzer(17)<br />5. Monica Seles (2)<br />6. Iva Majoli(7)<br />7. Mary Pierce (20)<br />8. Irina Spirlea(11)<br />9. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario (2)<br />10. Mary Joe fernandez (14)
1998: Year End (previous year in Brackets)<br />1.Lindsay Davenport (3)<br />2.Martina Hingis (1)<br />3. Jana Novotna (2)<br />4. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario(9)<br />5. Venus Williams(22)<br />6. Monica Seles(5)<br />7. Mary Pierce (7)<br />8. Conchita Martinez (12)<br />9. Steffi Graf (28)<br />10. Nathalie Tauziat(11)
1999: Year End (previous year in Brackets)<br />1.Martina Hingis(2)<br />2.Lindsay Davenport(1)<br />3. Venus Williams(5)<br />4. Serena Williams(20)<br />5. Mary Pierce(7)<br />6. Monica Seles(5)<br />7. Nathalie Tauziat(10)<br />8. Barbara Schett (23)<br />9. Julie Harlard Decugis (22)<br />10. Amelie Muresmo (29)
2000(previous year in Brackets)<br />1.Martina Hingis(1)<br />2.Lindsay Davenport(2)<br />3. Venus Williams(3)<br />4. Monica Seles (6)<br />5. Conchita Martinez (15)<br />6. Serena Williams (4)<br />7. Mary Pierce (5)<br />8. Anna Kournikova (12)<br />9. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario (17)<br />10. Nathalie Tauziat (7)
2001 (previous year in brackets)<br />1. Lindsay Davenport (2)<br />2. Jennifer Capriati (14)<br />3. Venus Williams (3)<br />4. Martina Hingis (1)<br />5. Kim Clijsters (18)<br />6. Serena Williams (6)<br />7. Justine Henin (48)<br />8. Jelena Dokic (26)<br />9. Amelie Mauresmo (16)<br />10. Monica Seles (4)
PRECEDENTS
1. Two Top 5 players will fall out of top 5<br />2. 1 new top five entry will be ranked within the top 14<br />3. One new top 5 entry will be ranked between 15-25.<br />4. The no.8 player will fall from the top ten to be replaced by a player ranked between 11-30<br />5. The No.10 position will usually be filled by a veteran.<br />6. The No.6 position will be filled by a current top 10 member<br />7. Atleast 3 (usually 4) players will leave the top 10, atleast 1 player will return to the top 10 and there will be atleast 1 new top 10 player.
these trends belie wahat many have been saying about this top 10 being pretty solid and most don't think it will change very much. I tend to agree but history is often a great pointer to the future and we must respect it. Paying credence to this trend I cautiously predict the following and how they comply with the pattern.
1 (3). Venus Williams <br />2 (4). Martina Hingis <br />3 (1). Lindsay Davenport<br />4 (6). Serena Williams (new top 5, from top 14)<br />5 (15). Elena Dementieva (new top 5, from 15-25)<br />6 (2). Jennifer Capriati (falling from top 5)<br />7 (5). Kim Clijsters (current top 10 member, falls from top 5)<br />8 (12). Meghann Shaughnessy (new top 10 player)<br />9 (10). Monica Seles <br />10 (19). Amanda Coetzer (veteran, returning member)
It may not seem to realsitic, but it is true to history which is always a good pointer.
try making your own top 10's based on thses rules
[ December 17, 2001: Message edited by: tennisaddict. ]
[ December 17, 2001: Message edited by: tennisaddict. ]</p>