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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Nice to start this thread after such a battling win :)

Current ranking as of 17th January 2022:

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Live ranking halfway through Australian Open R3:

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Points won this year in Australia thus far (excluding less relevant 1 point counters):

Barty: 470 + 240 (on going) = 710
Sabalenka: 130 (on going) = 130
Krejcikova: 305 + 240 (on going) = 545
Pliskova: 0
Badosa: 470 + 240 (on going) = 710

Muguruza: 100 + 70 = 170
Sakkari: 55 + 240 (on going) = 295
Kontaveit: 180 + 70 = 250
Swiatek: 180 + 130 (on going) = 310
Jabeur: 100
Rybakina: 305 + 55 + 70 = 430
 

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Discussion Starter · #2 ·
Current counters on her ranking:

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So just 110 from Lyon, 35 from Miami, and 185 from Charleston, 330 in total, to defend until the start of May when the strong red clay points from last year will kick in - 390 + 280 + 430 (1,100), so a lot of work to do there, but that should really be her forte, and most preferred part of the season - she should also get to play Rome this year, which is a huge bonus.

Plenty of low non mandatory counters she can replace in the mean time as well - I can't believe that 2 of her counters are still ITF events, including a W25 from 2019 :LOL:
 

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She's virtually up to #5 due to Muguruza's points coming off and has 4,619 points which takes her above Pliskova to #4. Even if she loses to Keys in R4 then she can only get passed by Swiatek & Sakkari if they both make SF. Even if Azarenka wins AO she can't pass her total if my maths is correct (4,156 is her max).
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
So yeah, live rank #5 at the moment, 29 points behind Pliskova, but will obviously remain behind her for now. Only Sakkari and Swiatek can pass her this week, and both need a SF as Monz says. They may have to defeat the #1 and #2 seeds respectively in the QF, but I'd probably expect one of them to (most likely Iga), so Paula will either end Australia a CH #5, stay at #6, or drop one place to #7.
 

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After AO she remains #6, 23 points behind Pliskova and 27 points behind Swiatek. Both Swiatek & Pliskova lost in Dubai R3 last year.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 · (Edited)
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Yep, #4 is within sight, and definitely something that could be achieved over the coming weeks, especially with Pliskova also withdrawing from St Petersburg.

The gap to #11 (and thus, staying in the top 10) has been closed a bit with Collins' fine run. Paula did have a ca. 1700 lead over (then live 11th) Rybakina a few days ago, but now it's down to ca. 1300 over Jabeur, although still a very healthy cushion.

I found myself wanting Barty to win the AO from about the QF stage. She clearly is in a different league to just about all the field, and isn't really a rival for Paula at this stage / year, so I figured it would probably be better for her to hoover up the mass points and keep them away from others, in terms of current ranking and YEC implications. It's not the best situation because while I respect her, and admire her consistency, I don't particularly enjoy her matches, but then I wasn't really invested in any of the other 7 QFist's, so was happy for Barty to add a 3rd slam, and first on home soil.

Sakkari, Kontaveit, Jabeur, and Rybakina are all involved at St Pete's. Wiki have Sabalenka down, but Darts rankings don't, so not sure if she has taken a Top 20 WC.

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In terms of final combined points won in Australia, the top 12 picked up the following:

Barty: 470 + 2000 = 2470
Sabalenka: 240
Krejcikova: 305 + 430 = 735
Swiatek: 185 + 780 = 965
Pliskova: 0
Badosa: 470 + 240 = 710

Muguruza: 100 + 70 = 170
Sakkari: 55 + 240 = 295
Kontaveit: 185 + 70 = 255
Collins: 1300
Jabeur: 100
Rybakina: 305 + 55 + 70 = 430

So she's 5th in that little group, and 6th in the WTA race. Keys is 3rd behind the 2 AO finalists on 1090 points, but she's still just ranked 28th at the moment.
 
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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
As per the thread on GM, it looks like Paula will debut in the top 5 next week with Iga's Adelaide points dropping.

Repeating what I said on that thread, there's not too many points between most of those in the top 10 from Pliskova down, and positions can change pretty quickly with a good run, or a tournament dropping, but while the current top 3 look out of reach for now, certainly Barty, and this lofty ranking is all very new to her, any slight increase, and subsequent new career high, feels like a pretty big deal. :)
 

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As per the thread on GM, it looks like Paula will debut in the top 5 next week with Iga's Adelaide points dropping.

Repeating what I said on that thread, there's not too many points between most of those in the top 10 from Pliskova down, and positions can change pretty quickly with a good run, or a tournament dropping, but while the current top 3 look out of reach for now, certainly Barty, and this lofty ranking is all very new to her, any slight increase, and subsequent new career high, feels like a pretty big deal. :)
Yay! So happy for her
 

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I have slightly mixed feelings tbh. I am thrilled for her to reach top five and like Paullow said, it's incredible that she will now be able to say forever that she achieved that ranking. But, it feels a little soon and we've seen how achieving a high ranking before having strong slam results can sometimes place undue pressure on players and somewhat stunt their development. Ideal scenario is that she keeps a high ranking (at least top eight) through Roland Garros and then goes on a deep run there.
 
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She's not 19 yo so probably won't flame out like Andreescu, she probably worked too hard to achieve this ranking dating back to juniors so I wouldn't say this happened "too soon". Those GM comments that people were shocked to see her in Top 30 have kinda disappeared :hehehe:
 
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Discussion Starter · #11 ·

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Discussion Starter · #12 · (Edited)
No change this past week, although current top tenners Kontaveit and Sakkari earned the 470 and 310 points respectively to close the gap. Both have since withdrawn from Dubai - I'm not surprised with Sakkari given the disappointment of being in a very good position in the final a couple of times, as well as back to back 3 hour matches, but while it's probably sensible to rest, and concentrate on the W1000, I thought Anett may have given it a go considering she ploughed through successive tournaments last year with great success, and she had a fairly manageable first couple of rounds. Pliskova has obviously withdrawn from Dubai as well.

Dubai 2020 and 2021 points are coming off this week (as per the WTA PDF) so Paula is now guaranteed to be (another CH) #4 next Monday, regardless of what happens this week.

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It's maybe not quite as significant as cracking the top 5, but clearly another big milestone for her. Now that she has secured #4, which had looked a fair possibility these past few week, and there is still a sizable gap to #3 (despite Barbora dropping 586 points), while I obviously want her to be ranked as high as possible, and win as many matches as she can, I'm not quite as fussed if she were to sift between say 4-7 over the coming weeks, it just feels great that she has actually been ranked that high :D.
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
Confirmation of her new career high.

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When I started this thread a month ago and how the landscape was looking at the time, with Pliskova's injury and forthcoming points dropping from others (and Paula with very little to defend), #4 did look in reach, so it's great that she has accomplished that so soon.

I did think that would be the highest she'd be ranked for a while, and probably more likely that she would exchange positions with those directly below her over the coming weeks, but I have just seen that Sabalenka drops 900 points this week, so Paula is within 250 of her and could actually pass her with a big week in Qatar, but I'm not too optimistic (and others below could pass her). It would have to be this week though because Paula can't add any more points in her following tournament at Indian Wells, whereas Aryna was ruled out of IW last October with Covid, so any win she has will be net gain.

Live ranking (with Doha points dropping):

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Most of the top end players are in action this week, many of them with nicer looking draws.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
I will continue to update this thread, but the fun part and the 'chase' seems to be over for the foreseeable :LOL:.

Not the best week in Doha, she did at least get one good win, and 105 points for her efforts, but it was a very good week for the rest of the top 10 in general, particularly Swiatek, Kontaveit, and Sakkari, and the former two have now passed Paula, so she is #6 in todays rankings, and she also loses her 110 Lyon 2021 SF points this coming week, so her halved 24 points for reaching a W60 final in May 2019 :LOL:...will be back on her ranking (a net loss of 86), so that will see her 12 points below Sakkari and in to #7 in next weeks ranking, plus no chance of adding anything in her next event at Indian Wells, with her being the defending champion of course.

I was chuffed she got to #4, which did seem very possible due to the previously mentioned circumstances (others points dropping, Pliskova injury etc.), and that will always be her minimum career high, but perhaps ca. 7 is a bit more realistic at this stage, and she will need to have more great weeks for her ranking to go back to those slightly dizzier heights.

Obviously the higher the better, but I don't think there's too much difference being ranked between say 4th or 8th, especially now that she has cracked the top 5, but I do want her to stay in the top 10 for as long as possible, so from that perspective, it's maybe not a bad thing that very few players below her have gained significant points these past few weeks, bar Ostapenko.
 

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I also just noticed she is down to 7 now in live rankings. A bit disappointing because I had been excited at the prospect of her being a top four seed in Indian Wells and Miami, but it did feel strange that she was suddenly as high as fourth. I guess the margins are so thin right now in that range. It would be excellent if she could hold on to the top eight or especially top four for Roland Garros but she will have lots of points to defend soon so will need to really be playing at that level if it's going to happen.
 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
Officially #7 in todays rankings.

According to posts in this thread:


It looks like IW 2022 might be treat as a completely different event, and that Paula may be able to add points for any win that she picks up, which would be ideal - keeping her 1000 points until October, but also the opportunity to add to her tally like everyone else.
 
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That is some change, I remember reading an article in the off-season that the "best of" system will be used for IW '21 and '22. The 2021 points will come off in mid-October any which way.
 

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That is some change, I remember reading an article in the off-season that the "best of" system will be used for IW '21 and '22. The 2021 points will come off in mid-October any which way.
The whole thing is so confusing. It should be a separate event imo so that it lasts a year and because hopefully last year's Indian Wells will be replaced by a different 1000 event this fall, although not going to hold my breath for that one.
 
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It makes sense to treat it as a separate event. It basically just replaces Beijing.
 
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The only issue there would be if they can't replace it this fall and then she has 1000 points falling off with no way to defend them. Hopefully the WTA won't let that happen.
 
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