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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
Well, after assessing the candidates I have come up with this market for 2003 Roland Garros (odds may change after Rome Final, and Roland Garros Draw - watch this space! ;))

7-2 Serena Williams

Ousted at her only two claycourt warm-ups, but will be peaking at Roland Garros. Champion who is capable of bouncing back and still the one to beat.

9-2 Justine Henin

Impeccable form. Coming off two Tier 1 claycourt tournament victories, and has beaten all of the major title contenders here in the past 6 months. Important psychological victory over Clijsters at Rome. Major threat.

4-1 (in from 5-1) Kim Clijsters

Little Miss Consistency. No-one has been as consistently good as Clijsters since the US Open last year. 2nd seeding is a plus. Excellent form and hard to find fault with her, but Henin and Mauresmo appear to be greater threats to Serena. Repsect.

May 26: There are still questions over her resolve at the majors but with her very soft draw she has justified third favouritism.

5-1 Amelie Mauresmo

Traditional claycourt preparation has gone smoothly. Has beaten both Williams sisters in the past month. Has significantly mentally matured over the past year but how she will handle the pressure of Roland Garros is still a query.

8-1 Venus Williams

Champion who has been overshadowed by her sister over the past year and has never found RG a happy hunting ground. Interrupted preparation and injury cloud. If she can negotiate the first week, is still as big a threat as any to Serena's crown. Underestimate at your own peril.

12-1 (out from 10-1) Jennifer Capriati

2001 Roland Garros Champion who has been the most frustrating of all the contenders in her lead ups. Continually stretching the best to the limit but seemingly cannot break through for a win. Guaranteed to fight tooth and nail right to the end, but whether she is psychologically ready for another major victory is a big query.

May 26: Unkind draw will likely have to beat Venus, Clijsters and Serena back to back to win the title. Tough task.

14-1 (in from 20-1) Chanda Rubin

Best Outsider. Interrupted Preparation makes it hard to get excited about her, but at her best is one of the few players who can mix it with Serena. Likes the clay. Sleeper potential.

May 26: Title win in Madrid was solid. In form now and her odds have been slashed as a result.

20-1 (out from 13-1)Lindsay Davenport

American triple GS winner who is well known to despise clay. Injury cloud placed over her this week. Desire can be questioned with her recent marriage, but was showing promise before taking a break after Amelia Island. Hard to have.

25-1(out from 13-1) Elena Dementieva

Demonstrated a glimpse of her untapped brilliance when beating Coetzer, Hantuchova, Henin and Davenport for her first title. Unfortunately everytime she appears to get going, injury gets in the way. Has a pile driver forehand and is the only player to beat Henin on clay this season. If injury free can go very far.

May 26: Early loss in Strasbourg may mean her post Amelia Island Confidence has been sapped. Still a threat but harsh draw and not the ideal preparation.

30-1 Anastasia Myskina

Continually outclassed by her higher ranked rivals. Consistent and could spring an upset, but can't go all the way.

30-1 Monica Seles

Champ who has fallen on hard times. If she can regain form anywhere it is likely to be here, where she has won three times. But on the injury marred preparation she has had cannot be considered a real threat.

30-1 Ai Sugiyama

Upset specialist. Hard to see her going all the way but she will not shirk her task if the draw opens up for her. Scottsdale proved she can mix it with big guns.

40-1 Daniela Hantuchova

Has the game to win, but her loss of form is as mystifying as her ever shrinking wasteline. If she strikes peak form definite chance. But that is unlikely.

40-1 Conchita Martinez

There is still life in the old girl yet. Inform and injury free and that bodes well for her. Can still frustrate players almost half her age. PHard to see her winning, but she is still a marvel after all these years.

50-1 Vera Zvonareva

Rising Star. Probably not ready to win, but one to watch.
 

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:bounce: Nice Analysis, Rob :wavey:
 

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Mostly agree, but I think Justine has the best chance to win.....I might be a bit biased though!
 

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Vera has her chances :eek: 50-1
 

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Rob - it all looks pretty good.

As much as I would love Kim or Amelie to win, let's not forget that Serena is #1 in the world and has won the last 4 majors. Beating Serena in Charleston or Rome is a lot different than beating her in a major (just ask Loit or Clijsters). Even with her 2 losses, Serena has had decent clay court practice, and she will be ready to go at the French Open.

Still, Roland Garros is pretty wide open this year - moreso than last year, anyway. It would be really exciting (to me) to see someone win who has never won a major before.
 

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I'm sorry but your list is crap

:p

I'd say

4-1 Serena
Serena hasnt won a title on clay, shes not the *clear* favourite, but I'd still be my money on her

5-1 Justine
Is she healthy? Is she MENTALLY ready to win?

5-1 Kim
Is she healthy? Is she MENTALLY ready to win?

5-1 Venus
Venus doesnt need preparation to win RG. She showed that last year when she made the final with the same situation. She didnt drop a set!

6-1 Mauresmo
Is she MENTALLY ready to win RG?

12-1 Capriati
Never count out a champion. But she hasnt beaten a top 5 player not named Hingis since she won 2001 Aussie. And she isnt playing like she was then, and the gals are better than they were then.

20-1 Davenport
Got injured by too much bumpin and humpin. HATES clay. However, Never count out a champion

20-1 Seles
Poor thing cant stay healthy. But if 1998 was any indicator, all she needs is inspiration and she can do it. Never Count Out a Champion

20-1 Vera Zvonareva
The Kid's Got Skills

20-1 Elena Dementieva
Shes hot, Shes Blonde, AND she has a title!

30-1 Daniela Hantuchova
Unless she spends next week at McDonalds, and gains about 10 pounds of muscle and or fat, she wont make it past the 3rd round.

100-1 Anna Kournikova
Shes hot Shes Blonde...Did I mention shes hot and blonde?
 

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ooooooooo, I like mmcdonald's alot better :devil:
 

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no :angel:
 

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this year it should be a lot more interesting than last year. Rob you got it all right. what's interesting is the fact that serena is #1 and won last year and trying to defend on what is probably her worst surface. venus the one that everyone has seemed to have forgotten as a threat this year, did reach the final last year and a high seed she is a big threat but it will be interesting to see if either sister can back up their breakthrough year at roland garros. i think the most interesting thing is that mauresmo has beaten both sisters in warm-up tournaments which adds a tiny doubt in either sister of winning however they are still the favourites and mauresmo playing her home grand slam adds some nerves to her fans. henin beating serena and kim which was a big step for her and it could be the step that gets her to a grand slam title. davenport seems to have been playing quite well on clay this year and capriati being a former champion and usually pushes the top players she may finally get a big win she has been waiting for plus the added fact that she should be very hungry for a title and she seems to like the grand slams better.
 

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Um, I don't see much difference in mmcdonald's list and the original - the odds are slightly different, but the order of favorites is nearly identical except for the last few.

Anyway, the winner will be one of these 4:
Serena
Amelie
Justine
Kim

Depending on the draw, those could be the semifinalists (if Amelie is in Venus' quarter). Remember, this is a major, and in women's tennis, there is rarely a surprise winner in the majors.
 

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Discussion Starter #12
mcdonald, you just put Venus and monica a little higher, its hardly a big change to my list :p

Jordan :wavey:
 

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:wavey: Rob
 

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{{{RoB}}} said:
mcdonald, you just put Venus and monica a little higher, its hardly a big change to my list :p

Jordan :wavey:
naw, my analysis was better and my odds were more realistic

Why people are so quick to write off Venus is beyond me, but she will reign Roland Garros Queen :)
 

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Good analysis rob and mmcdonald. I don't know how to do odds, so I list them in order of who I think is most likely to take the title:
1)kim - I can't really see her not reaching the final. She has been so consistent since the beginning of the year.
---so the question is who is the other finalist?
2)Justine- Would have been ranked 1, but I don't see her beating up kim in the final. Despite her latest win over kim, her game seem prone to collapse when she faces her country woman.
3)Amelie - I think she should be ranked 2 as she has more of a chance for winning in the final if she faced kim. But, may be winning her home slam is still a bit over her pressure threshold.
4)Jennifer- Don't laugh now. :) She was a champion here, so she must know what it takes to win it all. She does well when she is not considered a contender.
5)Serena - May be. I don't think so though. Her confidence has slipped and her game has followed it.
6)Venus - Where in the world is she? Vacationing with volcana? Only if that is the case do I think she will reach farther than semi.

----
For the men,
1) Richard Gasquet - wouldn't that be just wonderful?
I don't care about the others in the mens side.
 

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Mmmcdonald.. what do you mean: are justine and kim mentally ready to win? Will they ever be more ready? :confused:
If this is not the time for them to win a GS when will it be? Kim has reached every SF or F this year, won three tournaments already and has been in great shape since last year's USopen.
 

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Jennifer all the way...i see her taking it all...but then again i could be completely off base...NEVER count out a champion!
 

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The fact that Serena has lost twice on clay this year is scary because she will come to Paris with a mission. A Serena with a hurt pride is the most dangerous opponent you can get.
 

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Hagar is probably right! Serena will be on a mission this year. She knows what she needs to do to beat Kim, Amelie and Juju, it'll just be a matter of executing. I think she will make sure that she does. She's still the player to beat in my book. One of Kim, Juju, and Amelie will be the other finalist. I give an outside chance to Venus and Jen, and I expect Lindsay to at least make the quarters, but I would be surprised (and pleased!) if she goes farther.
 
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