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Discussion Starter #1
Based on the last 6 years, the winner of Monte Carlo has a 1 in 3 chance of winning the French. This tournament has been a better predictor than Rome

Monte Carlo
2002 Juan Carlos d. Moya
2001 Guga d. Arazi (Guga wins FO)
2000 Pioline d Hrbaty
1999 Guga d Rios
1998 Moya d Pioline (Moya wins FO)
1997 Rios d Corretja

Based on the last six years, the winner of Hamburg has a 1/6 chance of winning the French Open).

Hamburg
2002 Roger Federer d Marat
2001 Portas d Juan Carlos
2000 Guga d Marat (Guga wins French Open)
1999 Rios d Zabaleta
1998 Rios d Costa
1997 Corretja d Rios

Statistical analysis:

1)Since Monte Carlo has been the best predictor of the French Open, Juan Carlos has a good chance to win this year. He chances will statistically increase if he goes out early in Rome (He needs the break, anyway).
2)If you are Marcelo Rios, whether you win a Masters-Series or not, you will not win the French Open. Too bad, since his results on clay are as stunning as Guga's. Rio=underated?
 

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Thanks, that's interesting but why the last 6 years? Shouldn't the survey be over at least 10 years to have better value? And where is Rome?
 

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Marat"Why I have to be frustrating? Why?" Safin


HAHAHAHAHAA!!! I can totally hear it in my head! :D
 

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Discussion Starter #4
pacatale said:
Thanks, that's interesting but why the last 6 years? Shouldn't the survey be over at least 10 years to have better value? And where is Rome?
Well, there actually two answers to your question.

1)I first did a list for Rome which only included the last 6 years, so I wanted to stay consistent.

2)I wanted to include only those players who are still active (to go further and those in the finals include names like Muster and Courier) and thus avoid the argument that different eras and different power games give different results.
 

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Thank you for the interesting statistics.

I would love for Marcelo Rios to stun the tennis world and win this. How many players, however, have won Roland Garros without being in incredible physical condition, especially if the player is twenty-five and over? Unhappily, Rios' cardiovascular fitness was never great and I'm not guessing that he spent his month off the tour doing sprint interval training... I can dream, I suppose. My guess is that Tennisfool's magical Monte Carlo-factor (even if it didn't work last year) will prevail and that the elegant Ferrero will at last win his first grand slam. *fingers crossed/no jinxing*
 
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