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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Although many people have already argued Kim will have a hard time defending her points during autumn, it looks like reality will be different.

If we assume another few good performances, this how her autum defending should go, even if she hardly win any matches:

US Open
By the time she plays it, it should not be among her 17 best.
Maximum points to be lost:
Kim: 0 most likely Serena: 1040 at most

Tokyo
Again, most likely very few points should be lost when she replaces it by her 18 th. She will not play there, so is likely to lose some
Kim: Maximum 103 most likely at lot less Serena: 264 at most

Leipzig
Already not among her 17 best
Kim: 0 points to lose Serena : 291 at most

Filderstadt
Here very likely quite a few points will be lost, even if she manages to defend, as last year she earned a lot of quality points
Kim: About 300 at most, most likely a lot less

Zuich
Not currently among her 17 best. Not likely she'll go down during this tournament

Luxemburg
Tournament win. Yet only 200 points were won last year. Quite possible that by the time she plays it a 1R loss or a tournament win wouldn't make a difference

Tour Championships
No hiding away. Her she has a lot of points to defend. If she fails, a lot will depend on her 18 tournament, which could be quite high by then.
Anyway Serena has some defending to do herself here. Not likely her points with respect to Serena are to change a lot.

Conclusion. Her points total is not likely to be a lot lower in 3 months than it's at present.

That's what quanity play does for you. The quality has gotten her where she is now, the quantity will make sure she stays around for a while.
 

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Kim Clijsters

Week of Tournament Points Result Tier
2002-11-04 WTA Championships 750 WON Champ.
2003-05-26 Roland Garros 646 F Grand Slam
2003-03-03 Indian Wells 459 WON I
2003-06-23 Wimbledon 440 SF Grand Slam
2003-01-13 Australian Open 432 SF Grand Slam
2003-05-12 Rome 402 WON I
2002-10-04 Filderstadt, Germany 378 WON II
2003-01-06 Sydney 350 WON II
2003-05-05 Berlin 295 F I
2003-07-21 Stanford 264 WON II
2003-03-17 Miami 235 SF I
2003-02-10 Antwerp 235 F II
2002-09-16 Toyota Princess Cup at Tokyo 210 F II
2003-06-16 's-Hertogenbosch 208 WON III
2002-10-21 Luxembourg 200 WON III
2003-02-24 Scottsdale 170 F II
2002-08-26 U.S. Open 122 4e round Grand Slam
-------------------------------------------------
Total points 17 best tournaments: 5796 points

2002-10-14 Zurich, Switzerland 107 QF I
2002-09-23 Leipzig, Germany 94 SF II
2002-07-29 San Diego, California 93 QF II
2002-08-12 Montreal, Canada 48 3e ronde I
2002-08-05 L. Angeles 1 2e round II


2003-07-28 San Diego 73 QF II*

*Max: 369 points added when she wins this tournament - US open points (17e tournament in points)


Coming Tournaments for Kim:

JPMorgan Chase Open (Tier II)
Los Angeles, California, USA
Aug 3 - 10, 2003 (Sunday Start)


Rogers AT&T Cup (Tier I)
Toronto, CAN
Aug 11 - 17, 2003


US Open (Grand Slam)
Flushing Meadows, New York
Aug 25 - Sep 7, 2003
 

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Yes, but Justine can reach her, even if Clijsters won't lose many points.
Normally, at the end of the year, you have the same number of points in the WTA Rankings and in the Race for the Championships. Am I right ?
And in the Race of Championships, 3 players = Serena, Justine and Kim are battlig for being 1st.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
justine&coria said:
Yes, but Justine can reach her, even if Clijsters won't lose many points.
Normally, at the end of the year, you have the same number of points in the WTA Rankings and in the Race for the Championships. Am I right ?
And in the Race of Championships, 3 players = Serena, Justine and Kim are battlig for being 1st.
Of course 3 people are still in contention for the year end no. 1.
You just have to look who of them is most likely to pick up the most points during the three coming months, and you would have to admit Henin-Hardenne looks least likely.
 

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Here is the yearend picture, regardless of who defends what.
Code:
Porsche Race to the Championships - As of: 7/28/2003	
					
rk				points	tr	avg	(17-tr)
					
1	KIM CLIJSTERS		4136	12	344.7	5
2	SERENA WILLIAMS		3916	7	559.4	10
3	JUSTINE HENIN-HARDENNE	3743	11	340.3	6
4	VENUS WILLIAMS		2211	6	368.5	11
5	LINDSAY DAVENPORT	1890	11	171.8	6
6	JENNIFER CAPRIATI	1705	12	142.1	5
7	AMELIE MAURESMO		1607	9	178.6	8
8	CHANDA RUBIN		1538	12	128.2	5
9	VERA ZVONAREVA		1288	15	85.9	2
10	AI SUGIYAMA		1227	15	81.8	2
Lots of conclusions can be drawn from these data, among which:
- Kim has 5 tourneys left but can play more to improve her avg.
- The Willys, now #1 and #2 as per avg, have lots of tourneys left to fill out their quotas, ie, 10 for Rena and 11 for Vee. They just have to play, and play well. But will they?
- Justine is very close to Kim and has 6 tourneys left. She also can play more to improve her avg.
- Any of these four girls can finish #1. After USOpen, the picture may be somewhat different.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
As far as Venus is concerned, she does not have a realistic chance of being the year end no.1.

Now she has 2200 points by playing 6
However it's very unlikely she'll have double that amount by playing another 6. After all, 3 of the 4 majors have passed and the only reason she's still so high with this few tournaments is because she got to two GS finals. If she has to get to no 1 through the remaining tournaments she has some work to do because in those Kim has been doing a lot better.
 

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It looks great on paper ;) Let the matches decide what happens and I hope that Serena willbe fecing the Belgians, espacilly Kim, some times before reaching the number 1 spot eventually!

:)
 

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great smash said:
As far as Venus is concerned, she does not have a realistic chance of being the year end.

Now she has 2200 points by playing 6
However it's very unlikely she'll have double that amount by playing another 6. After all, 3 of the 4 majors have passed and the only reason she's still so high with this few tournaments is because she got to two GS finals. If she has to get to no 1 through the remaining tournaments she has some work to do because in those Kim has been doing a lot better.
Besides, to fill out those 11 spots, she would have to play just about every week from here on. Very unlikely. To reach #1, she might also need to win USOpen and the yearend Championships.

Herculean feats? Yes, almost phantasm.
 

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No, Kim winning the final would be so fantastic!
 
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