Iga’s 2023 Roland Garros (French Open)

Odds for the RG winner two weeks prior to kickoff (average of Bet365, William Hill, Coral, SkyBet, Paddypower):

1. Iga Świątek 1.7
2. Aryna Sabalenka 7.0
3. Barbora Krejčíková 14.2
4. Elena Rybakina 15.4
5. Ons Jabeur 15.8
6. Coco Gauff 19.8
= Paula Badosa 19.8
8. Maria Sakkari 21.0
9. Jessica Pegula 22.2
10. Jeļena Ostapenko 35.2

So, if there are no more withdrawals, the seeding in Paris will be as follows:

1 Iga Świątek
2 Aryna Sabalenka
3 Jessica Pegula
4 Elena Rybakina
5 Caroline Garcia
6 Coco Gauff
7 Ons Jabeur
8 Maria Sakkari

9-12 Daria Kasatkina, Petra Kvitová, Veronika Kudermetova, Belinda Bencic

13-16 Barbora Krejčíková, Beatriz Haddad Maia, Ludmilla Samsonova, Karolína Plíšková

17-24 Jeļena Ostapenko, Victoria Azarenka, Qinwen Zheng, Madison Keys, Donna Vekić, Magda Linette, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Anastasia Potapova

25-32 Anhelina Kalinina, Martina Trevisan, Irina-Camelia Begu, Elise Mertens, Paula Badosa, Shuai Zhang, Sorana Cîrstea, Marie Bouzková

Players Iga can meet in SF but no earlier are in orange;
Players Iga can meet in QF but no earlier are in green;
Players Iga can meet in Round 4 but no earlier are in blue;
Players Iga can meet in Round 3 but no earlier are in purple.

So Rybakina is the new Rome champion and the FO is right ahead

It shows how 1GA was terrific against Rybakina. The fact 1GA was able to be all over Rybakina serve and that she was broken only 1 time in 2,5 sets shows

If she keep her clay level from Stuttgart, she should make without problems make the SF/F, unless she meets a peaking Ostapenko/Krejcikova in her quarter.
If she plays the level she displayed against Rybakina for 1,5 sets, there is only Krejcikova playing at her absolute best who can beat her.


1GA defeats since the beginning of 2022 :

2022

Adelaide QF: Barty (won the tournament)
AO SF : Collins
Dubai : Ostapenko (won the tournament)
Wimbledon 3R : Cornet
Varsovia : Garcia (won the tournament)
Rogers Cup 3R : BHM (was finalist)
Cincinnati 3R : Keys
Ostrava F : Krejcikova
Dallas SF : Sabalenka

2023

(the United Cup is irrelevant and not counted)

AO 4R : Rybakina (was finalist)
Dubai F: Krejcikova
IW SF : Rybakina (won the tournament)
Madrid F: Sabalenka
Rome QF: Rybakina * (won the tournament)

It's simple, 1GA had only 2 " bad " defeats since the beginning of 2022, the Cornet one (but acceptable as she was burned out) and the BHM one (her only true bad defeat as BHM is not a terror). Even the loss to Keys is not as bad as we can think as if there is a place when Keys can be very tough to handle, it's the fast surface of Cincinnati (she beat her nemesis Kerber and Halep here). I think 1GA was unlucky to meet Rybakina quite soon a the AO (as the Wimbledon points were not attributed). Varsovia is a meaningless clay WTA 250 and Garcia was playing really well in the second half of 2022.

And since the USO, 1GA basically lost to only three players. All of them are GS champions and have great games to beat her. Two are #1 and #2 in the 2023 Race

I would say that her consistency is her big asset. She is less likely to flop than Sabalenka, Rybakina and Krejcikova. Sabalenka is still unproved at the FO and slow clay is her worst surface (but didn't Rybakina just won Rome after all, besting Vondrousova, 1GA and Ostapenko ? If Rybakina can do it, so as Sabalenka with the right draw), Rybakina remain vulnerable if her serve and ballstriking are off. Krejcikova game and mental are unstable - as the infamous bagel against Ostapenko proved

This FO will be very exciting. I think 1GA will have a harder time this time as Sabalenka, Rybakina clearly stepped up and are in form. But that's we want. We want the top players compete against each other. I and we don't way people say " Swiatek was lucky that her competitors were out, she feasted on weak opposition ". Of course, if those three shouldn't meet 1GA, it means they weren't good or consistent. 1GA can only beat the players she face.

If 1GA should lose at the FO, it because Rybakina/Sabalenka/Krejcikova has been stronger than her. However, a loss to another player than those three would be inacceptable and a big failure. 1GA can't lose to another player, not after her remarkable consistency. There is no one except those three players who has the level to threaten her on clay - except the mystery Ostapenko

GS are another stories compared to Master 1000. 1GA was mediocre in the NA HC season last year, and still won the USO

Odds for the RG winner a week prior to kickoff (average of Bet365, William Hill, Coral, SkyBet, Paddypower):

1. Iga Świątek 1.8
2. Aryna Sabalenka 5.6
3. Elena Rybakina 8.8
4. Barbora Krejčíková 16.4
5. Paula Badosa 16.8
6. Ons Jabeur 21.0
= Jeļena Ostapenko 21.0
8. Coco Gauff 21.4
9. Jessica Pegula 27.4
10. Maria Sakkari 28.4

The composition of the top 10 identical to a week ago, only the order has been altered. Rybakina, Ostapenko, Badosa - up; Krejčíková, Jabeur, Gauff, Sakkari - down. Odds for Iga's win almost untouched.