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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Thought I'd create a thread especially for this particular subject. People can discuss and update it as we go.

The good news is that Emma will be ranked 21st in the world officially as of tomorrow, which will be a CH for her. Here is her live ranking as of 31 October :

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There is even better news to come. Regardless of how she performs in Linz in a couple of weeks, she will finish the year ranked within the top 20. She's currently sitting on 2627 points.

The likes of Angie Kerber, Belinda Bencic and Elena Svitolina will all drop a notable number of points when their Indian Wells 2019 efforts come off shortly. When deducted it will leave them with approximately 2640, 2350 and 2626 points respectively, and with those players not competing in the YEC and (as of yet) no other competitions this year, Emma should finish at least 20th and potentially as high as 14th depending on her performance in Linz.

Elise Mertens also reached the final of Linz in 2020, and isn't competing this year, so there should be another 180 points deducted from her ranking as well AFAIK. This should bring her ranking down to 2515 in a couple of weeks.

I'm sure if this is incorrect, more knowledgeable individuals re: the rankings will be able to correct me on that one.
 

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Thought I'd create a thread especially for this particular subject. People can discuss and update it as we go.

The good news is that Emma will be ranked 21st in the world officially as of tomorrow, which will be a CH for her. Here is her live ranking as of 31 October :

View attachment 200692

There is even better news to come. Regardless of how she performs in Linz in a couple of weeks, she will finish the year ranked within the top 20. She's currently sitting on 2627 points.

The likes of Angie Kerber, Belinda Bencic and Elena Svitolina will all drop a notable number of points when their Indian Wells 2019 efforts come off shortly. When deducted it will leave them with approximately 2640, 2350 and 2626 points respectively, and with those players not competing in the YEC and (as of yet) no other competitions this year, Emma should finish at least 19th and potentially as high as 14th depending on her performance in Linz.

I'm sure if this is incorrect, more knowledgeable individuals re: the rankings will be able to correct me on that one.
Good post, its impossible to work out casually as when points drop, some points that were not counted in the best of might take their place ? I have almost given up trying to advance work out things.

I am sure emma is just trying to get more games in to up her endurance and stamina with so little tour time. Playing in Linz is probably better than a hitting partner at NTC for her growth.

As long as she is fit she should get as much in as she can IMO = her schedule and planning should also depend on why she was lethargic this week in qtrs (which we will never know).
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Good post, its impossible to work out casually as when points drop, some points that were not counted in the best of might take their place ? I have almost given up trying to advance work out things.

I am sure emma is just trying to get more games in to up her endurance and stamina with so little tour time. Playing in Linz is probably better than a hitting partner at NTC for her growth.

As long as she is fit she should get as much in as she can IMO = her schedule and planning should also depend on why she was lethargic this week in qtrs (which we will never know).
I don't work out rankings in advance because there's usually so much going on, but with the season about to end, most of the top players have either qualified for the YEC, or have decided to shut theirs down, at least from the perspective of accumulating more ranking points. Some might be participating in the BJK Cup, but there's no points on offer there.

Of the ranking events that are still to take place out-with the YEC, Linz is the biggest one left, and the competing players ranked below her, aside from Halep, are all too far away to able to jump above her, and all of the players ranked between 9 and 20 aren't competing either, which gives her an opportunity to jump a few spots.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
Top 20 soon.

Top 10 by middle of next year, IMHO.
You might very well be right, just by virtue of the fact she has no points to defend between now and Wimbledon.

10th place is currently Angie Kerber, who has around 640 more points than Emma with 3265 points. If we say for arguments sake, that that'll be the top 10 cut-off next year, can she accumulate that amount of points between now and June with a clay season looming?
 

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You might very well be right, just by virtue of the fact she has no points to defend between now and Wimbledon.

10th place is currently Angie Kerber, who has around 640 more points than Emma with 3265 points. If we say for arguments sake, that that'll be the top 10 cut-off next year, can she accumulate that amount of points between now and June with a clay season looming?
Some one removed all the frozen points, its basically not too far off the wta race as we are in November, but still we wait for the frozen tuff to go......crazy.

 

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@xenosys....you are placing too much importance on rankings....especially in Emma's case. She truly has not been on tour long enough to find out where she really fits in here. I am a fan as well and her US Open win will basically guarantee she will remain in the top 30 until US Open 2022....which is great benefit. She should easily remain inside the top 20 until then.....even with poor results next year. As you say, she literally has no points to defend until Wimbledon, and every point earned til then is a point to the good. But for 2022 do not mistake a good ranking now for good play going forward......the two are not related in the slightest in Emma's case....she still has to prove herself on tour.....just a cautionary tale.;)
 

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For the coming year till Wimbledon 2022, every tournament she enters, she only has to reach the 3rd round to make significant progress on her ranking, she will see competitors tumble down the list because they can't retain their points, and there will be a few like Emma continuing the rise. But it should be a net positive if she can get past the 2nd round of each tournament. Then we are talking about a ranking between 10 and 16. If she does even better top 10 is not out of the question. If she really struggles, she still will be there and about in the top 30 until US Open 22 and she still be seeded in GS tournaments up to that. Even if she has mostly bad runs, she only needs a really good deep run in WTA 1000 tournament of Grand Slam to nullify the bad results.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 · (Edited)
So ... the live rankings confirm Emma will a top 20 player next week for the first time.

AFAIK, with Mertens losing around 180 points next week (Linz 2020), Emma should secure YE #19 if she exits Linz in R1 (if applicable), #18 if she exits R2, #16 if she gets to the QF, #15 with a SF showing and #14 with a W.

Simo is the only one that could throw a spanner in the works if she's still going to compete in Linz.

With Halep around 160 points behind Radu, she could overtake her with a W if Emma fails to reach the Final, or a Final appearance if Emma doesn't get past R1.

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For the coming year till Wimbledon 2022, every tournament she enters, she only has to reach the 3rd round to make significant progress on her ranking, she will see competitors tumble down the list because they can't retain their points, and there will be a few like Emma continuing the rise. But it should be a net positive if she can get past the 2nd round of each tournament. Then we are talking about a ranking between 10 and 16. If she does even better top 10 is not out of the question. If she really struggles, she still will be there and about in the top 30 until US Open 22 and she still be seeded in GS tournaments up to that. Even if she has mostly bad runs, she only needs a really good deep run in WTA 1000 tournament of Grand Slam to nullify the bad results.
That is interesting - thank you. I was assuming that Emma's initial priority next year would be to establish herself in the top 100 after she loses her USO points. Then it's all progress. My understanding was that making to the top 100 and avoiding qualis is the first step for a young player - and usually a bit of a marathon.

But it sounds as if she will do much better. Of course if she can recreate her USO form on a regular basis then the sky's the limit - but I'm assuming it will be a few years before she has developed enough to be able to do that.
 

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Is a top 8 before Wimbledon too optimistic? It would allow her to avoid the top seeds before QFs and hopefully help cement a top 30 spot before USO points drop.

Wrote this then thought "nah it's too early to speculate and let's just see what 2022 brings".
 

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Is a top 8 before Wimbledon too optimistic? It would allow her to avoid the top seeds before QFs and hopefully help cement a top 30 spot before USO points drop.

Wrote this then thought "nah it's too early to speculate and let's just see what 2022 brings".
Yes and no. She is about 800 points out of top 8 and has nothing to defend until then
 

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Elise Mertens also reached the final of Linz in 2020, and isn't competing this year, so there should be another 180 points deducted from her ranking as well AFAIK. This should bring her ranking down to 2515 in a couple of weeks.
I believe Mertens only drops 120 of the 180 points from Linz 2020, as this score is replaced by 60 points on her 'next best' list of counting scores. Still takes her below Emma in the rankings due 15 November.

What could be REALLY interesting is when the points from the three Melbourne 2021 AO-lead-in tournaments drop off. I have seen one source saying this was going to be 10 Jan 2022 which, presumably, would be the rankings used by the AO to determine their seedings if they commence play on 17 Jan. However, such a drop-off date would be less than the standard 52 weeks so this seems unlikely.

Anyway, let's say those Melbourne points drop off on 10 Jan and are not replaced by any 2022 lead-in tournaments (because of the general uncertainty around the 2022 calendar and the Aussie vaccination/quarantine requirements). It is conceivable that Emma could be seeded in the Top 16 for the AO.
 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
I believe Mertens only drops 120 of the 180 points from Linz 2020, as this score is replaced by 60 points on her 'next best' list of counting scores. Still takes her below Emma in the rankings due 15 November.

What could be REALLY interesting is when the points from the three Melbourne 2021 AO-lead-in tournaments drop off. I have seen one source saying this was going to be 10 Jan 2022 which, presumably, would be the rankings used by the AO to determine their seedings if they commence play on 17 Jan. However, such a drop-off date would be less than the standard 52 weeks so this seems unlikely.

Anyway, let's say those Melbourne points drop off on 10 Jan and are not replaced by any 2022 lead-in tournaments (because of the general uncertainty around the 2022 calendar and the Aussie vaccination/quarantine requirements). It is conceivable that Emma could be seeded in the Top 16 for the AO.
Interesting re: the Mertens points. Thanks for that.

A top 16 seeding would be handy, as she could potentially avoid seeds 9-16 in the 3rd round and play 17-24 instead should she get that far. In any case, long way to go until that happens. No point dwelling on it now.
 

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Interesting re: the Mertens points. Thanks for that.

A top 16 seeding would be handy, as she could potentially avoid seeds 9-16 in the 3rd round and play 17-24 instead should she get that far. In any case, long way to go until that happens. No point dwelling on it now.
Yeah Top 16 would definitely be helpful in terms of draws. Outside of that I don't know how much tennis players care about rankings. They seem to be more interested (understandably) by what tournaments they win rather than that they achieved a ranking of X.
 

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Interesting re: the Mertens points. Thanks for that.

A top 16 seeding would be handy, as she could potentially avoid seeds 9-16 in the 3rd round and play 17-24 instead should she get that far. In any case, long way to go until that happens. No point dwelling on it now.
Yeah, I'm flying a kite on this possibility, but I would hope Emma and her team have realised that 100 points or more from Linz might have real strategic value for the start of the new season.
 

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Yeah Top 16 would definitely be helpful in terms of draws. Outside of that I don't know how much tennis players care about rankings. They seem to be more interested (understandably) by what tournaments they win rather than that they achieved a ranking of X.
YUP It doesn't really matter on WTA right now. Anyone can beat anyone
 
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