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Discussion Starter #1
Last thread went to 5000 posts

When I started that one, Caroline lost to Schmiedlova in Wuhan after being up 61 41
Remember that?
Now she is #1 for week 71 next week, and won the Australian Open and Singapore.
Next she gets a rest, then on to Indian Wells where she is a former Champion and played in 3 finals
 

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Subscribed! Possibly the last volume. :sobbing: (Caro won YEC+AO in vol8, her lucky number ;)) But let's enjoy a few more wins first. :laugh2:
 

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Discussion Starter #3
I'm thinking positive. Her movement is so spectacular, she is one of the biggest stars on tour and one of the most marketable.
I think the positives of playing 3 or 4 more years are incredible, as long as she stays a YEC talent
She is one of the reasons Shenzhen is paying the tour a billion$$
 

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I've been away all day. Just seen that Caro lost. :bigcry: I don't know why but I was really thinking I was going to get back and see that she'd won.
 

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I've been away all day. Just seen that Caro lost. :bigcry: I don't know why but I was really thinking I was going to get back and see that she'd won.
I guess we only started to get used to it. :eek:h:

We'll have to deal with the fact she can't win everything. :laugh2:
 

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Discussion Starter #7
I've been away all day. Just seen that Caro lost. :bigcry: I don't know why but I was really thinking I was going to get back and see that she'd won.
At least in the post match interview she knew where she lost it. Served for the match twice and lost 8 of 10 points on her serve
At 54 missed all 4 first serves, 63 65 15-0 she made 2 unforced forehand errors then a df. So she gave it away without a fight, similar to set 1 of the Miami final at 44, but this was to close a SF
That is a part of her game she has to be mentally aware of, and focus every point when she serves
Overall, it was a good run for only 3 weeks after her first major.
 

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I have argued that the #1 spot shouldn't be a goal in itself and I haven't changed my mind but I know some disagree or at least are curious about the #1 predictions. So let's do the calculations:

Caro will have 7525 points after Dubai while Halep will have 7965. Furthermore, Caroline will lose 215 points at IW while Halep only loses 65 which brings Halep 590 points ahead (virtually). So Caro will need an IW title (1000 p) to win the #1 back except in the unlikely case that Halep loses R64. Then a final (650 p) is enough for Caro to overtake the #1.

Miami will also be difficult because Caroline will lose further 650 points while Halep only loses 215.

So Halep will most likely keep the #1 spot until May if not longer because Caro will need at least two finals at IW and Miami (or a title plus a good result) to close the gap (and that's still not enough if Halep does well there!). But I'm already looking too far ahead because a lot of unexpected stuff can still happen besides change of schedule. Muguruza might even be in contention if she wins the final today and performs well at Dubai - and somewhat better than Caro and Halep at IW and Miami (I haven't checked Muguruza's figures though)!
 

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Discussion Starter #9
I agree. Last year Caroline had a great run at Doha, Dubai, Miami and Halep was injured. So its okay if she doesnt have #1 now.
I think she has improved her serve and has the right racket/strings combination now. And still has all her old movement and defensive skills
So I think Caroline is going to continue to have a great year. Dont let a close loss to Kvitova be a negative. She is a great player also and that match could have gone either way
 

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I'm always lost with all those points you lose and win...

Anyway, to me it's Wozniacki and Halep exchanging number one spots beyond the others and it's fine by me.

Since you count well @angliru, what are Svitolina's chances to stay at least number 3 or better? :)
 

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Since you count well @angliru, what are Svitolina's chances to stay at least number 3 or better? :)
Muguruza will be the new #3 tomorrow, so not very good, I'm afraid. Svitolina also has 900 points from Dubai '17 that will drop off next week, so she may drop to #5. But she doesn't have a lot to defend at IW and Miami (compared to Pliskova, for instance) so she may regain or stay at #4 for some time.
 

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I have argued that the #1 spot shouldn't be a goal in itself and I haven't changed my mind but I know some disagree or at least are curious about the #1 predictions. ....

....
I'm the same as you on this. The tournaments she plays in are an end in themselves as far as I'm concerned and it's the level she can play at now that I'm really interested in - not her ranking. I remember in 2015 when she was ranked really high in the top 5 for so long but her level of play was nothing like her ranking which was based almost entirely on what she did the last half of 2014 - and that level of play had deserted her..

So my view is if she plays really well - then her ranking and the #1 spot will take care of itself. In fact I usually look at the race this time of year rather than the rankings as an indicator of how well she's playing. All those points in her ranking last year and a chunk of points just arbitrarily dropping off each week is quite arbitrary and has nothing to do with her level of play now.
 

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Discussion Starter #13
The #1 is nice now that she is the only player, along with Federer, who won a 2018 major.
So having #1 all Feb & March would have been nice.
Federer will probably lose it to Nadal in a few weeks and Caroline will lose it to Halep in a week.
I agree that she shouldnt overplay to get it back. Maybe being #2 will work out well at IW like it did in Melbourne
Right mental attitude, good draw, and have a great tournament!
 

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Despite Caro losing to Petra I think she played very well in Doha especially against Carebear

That said hopefully the whole Nicelescu drama didn't phase her.

On to IW, I think she'll be confident she can win in the desert.
 

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Discussion Starter #16
Yes, it is very hard to beat Kerber, Kvitova and Muguruza in a row, especially 3 weeks after your first major
She did very well, and IW is a tough tournament also. Its not realistic to win every tournament. Just contend like last week, and she will win more titles and back to #1. But she is not going to win every premier, and that draw was unusually tough.
 

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Discussion Starter #19
Caroline's weeks at #1 is now 71, and stays there until she gets it back again.
Caroline is the oldest of the 4 slam winners at 27, but she was only 3 when Venus started on tour, played Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario in 1994
So still young at 27 with some great things to accomplish
 

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True. 27 isn't a very old for a slam winner. I recently posted some stats in GM which I can reuse here:

The average age of the 1st time Grand slam winners since 2010 is roughly 26.3 years (there has been twelve 1st time winners since 2010). Pennetta (33), Schiavone (almost 30), Li Na (29), Bartoli (28) and Kerber (28) were all older than Caroline when they won their 1st slam. Stosur at 27 was roughly the same age as Caroline (a month younger, actually). Even Sloans, who I'd consider one of the younger players, was still 24.5 when she won US Open.

If we consider all the slam winners since 2010 (33 in total), then the average age is 28.5 years.

A completely unrelated age fact: Caroline is the only active player who's been in the top 100 consecutively since she was 16 years old (she was only a few days short of 17 when she made the top 100, but still...)!
 
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