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All I want for Christmas is EU
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There's no guarantee.
What if the virus is different every year like the seasonal flu. You'd need a new vaccine every year. Or perhaps the immunity of a vaccine will only be temporary, for weeks or months only.
We haven't got rid of many viruses in the last decades since no vaccine were ever found, only treatments work for those.
It's possible that Covid19 will affect humanity for a long time. We missed our chance to get a head start with Sars-Cov (2002) and with Mers-Cov (2012) to work on finding a cure or vaccine for those coronaviruses. Instead of that there were cuts in the medical research worldwide. Those viruses were seen as not dangerous enough to be worth the investments. That was dumb because the warnings have been there for a while that a pandemic was coming eventually.

We're lucky that it is not so deadly, but the sad thing is that the collateral victims could be many millions of deaths from famines or other issues resulting from the chaos of the pandemic.
That is a real possibility. Yes. Still. A vaccine that worked only for a year or even a few months would be better than a kick in the teeth. It is very possible we are going to end up having to take Covid vaccines on a fairly regular basis. That wouldn't be ideal. But it would be better than the alternative of not finding any sort of vaccine by a long way.
 

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There's no guarantee.
What if the virus is different every year like the seasonal flu. You'd need a new vaccine every year. Or perhaps the immunity of a vaccine will only be temporary, for weeks or months only.
We haven't got rid of many viruses in the last decades since no vaccine were ever found, only treatments work for those.
It's possible that Covid19 will affect humanity for a long time. We missed our chance to get a head start with Sars-Cov (2002) and with Mers-Cov (2012) to work on finding a cure or vaccine for those coronaviruses. Instead of that there were cuts in the medical research worldwide. Those viruses were seen as not dangerous enough to be worth the investments. That was dumb because the warnings have been there for a while that a pandemic was coming eventually.

We're lucky that it is not so deadly, but the sad thing is that the collateral victims could be many millions of deaths from famines or other issues resulting from the chaos of the pandemic.
This is why we shouldn't look to any one miracle drug or cure or vaccine. Even a very effective vaccine would take months to deploy even in rich countries.

However let's be hopeful. There is a a lot of cross -reactivity in immune responses to Coronaviruses. I think I posted some comments on a SARS-MERS-SARS2/2019 B-Coronavirus antibody assay study a while back. So the hope is that even though their will be mutation that the strains will be similar enough year-to-year that a rolling herd immunity exists as it usually does with seasonal flu. Also we should be hopeful that it is very infectious only because of its spike protein having an extremely high affinity for the human ACE2 receptor. This should give a very good target for therapy and vaccines. If prophylaxis/therapy is targeted correctly, we should be less worried about any mutation in the spike protein (making vaccines/drugs ineffective) because the same mutation will likely make it less compatible with Human ACE2 Receptor and less infectious.

To be sure it is the weakness in humans that we can only work to solve problems when they become catastrophic.
 

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All I want for Christmas is EU
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This is why we shouldn't look to any one miracle drug or cure or vaccine. Even a very effective vaccine would take months to deploy even in rich countries.

However let's be hopeful. There is a a lot of cross -reactivity in immune responses to Coronaviruses. I think I posted some comments on a SARS-MERS-SARS2/2019 B-Coronavirus antibody assay study a while back. So the hope is that even though their will be mutation that the strains will be similar enough year-to-year that a rolling herd immunity exists as it usually does with seasonal flu. Also we should be hopeful that it is very infectious only because of its spike protein having an extremely high affinity for the human ACE2 receptor. This should give a very good target for therapy and vaccines. If prophylaxis/therapy is targeted correctly, we should be less worried about any mutation in the spike protein (making vaccines/drugs ineffective) because the same mutation will likely make it less compatible with Human ACE2 Receptor and less infectious.

To be sure it is the weakness in humans that we can only work to solve problems when they become catastrophic.
Sounds good to me. (y)
 

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According to a Brazilian politician, very close to Bolsonaro, Sweden proves that social isolating is bad because most people that died there were the elder, who were isolated, so the isolation is the cause of death. Tragic funny thing, that guy is somehow a doctor. Meanwhile July was the month when we had more registered deaths Here, with 32 thousand. Another funny thing, that doctor said out of his arse that the pandemy would be already over here in Brazil around April, and that we would have at max 1 thousand deaths in total. Somehow some people still give him credit.
 

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Public Health Ontario has conducted a study screening serology samples for Covid-19 antibodies.


They conclude that as of this point roughly 160,000 people (1% of the population) has been infected. In the densly populated Toronto region, the actual infection rate is roughly 1.5%.

This is roughly 4X the official confirmed rate. However, this is much less than in other juristictions in the US where they are estimating over 10X the confirmed number as having been infected.

Melbourn Lockdown 😞
They have 6 months before AO, but one has to wonder if it's already in jeopardy

At this point i would not bet on any sporting event crowning a champion unless I see a fat guy in a suit walking on the field of play with an oversized cheque or trophy. So baseball has been playing for 10 days and there are two or three teams in quarantine? Do you believe they will present a trophy 3+ months from now? It's so bad they have to keep changing the rules. They are going to allow them to use 7-inning double headers to make up games? In a week I bet we will be a the point of 5 inning triple headers. It'll be like watching a weekend kids tournament where Saturday was rained out and the're going to play all the games starting at 7am on Sunday.



Any thing where there's travel is a question. I can see if they want to produce a TV event like the NBA or NHL as opposed to touring. But going through an airport every few days or crossing a border once a week is going to be hard.

Now excuse me I'm going to turn on my stream so I can watch the Raptors play basketball at 1pm on a Monday afternoon.
 

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I'm really curious about those at-home saliva tests. One of the companies I'm invested in (Sorrento Therapeutics) has just licensed a COVID-19 'spit test' from the Columbia University.

The test is designed to detect SARS-CoV-2 in about 30 minutes from a sample of saliva.

'The study found sensitivity and specificity in 97% and 100% of the samples, respectively, and the ability to detect as few as one or two copies of the virus in a microliter of saliva.'

What's great about the test is that no special laboratory is equipment required and there's no need for uncomfortable nasal swabbing. It's a sort of pregnancy-style at-home test.

Another piece of good news is that this project is not unique. Last week, researchers at the University of Colorado announced that they have developed “a rapid, portable, saliva-based COVID-19 test able to return results in 45 minutes.”
 

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I'm really curious about those at-home saliva tests. One of the companies I'm invested in (Sorrento Therapeutics) has just licensed a COVID-19 'spit test' from the Columbia University.

The test is designed to detect SARS-CoV-2 in about 30 minutes from a sample of saliva.

'The study found sensitivity and specificity in 97% and 100% of the samples, respectively, and the ability to detect as few as one or two copies of the virus in a microliter of saliva.'

What's great about the test is that no special laboratory is equipment required and there's no need for uncomfortable nasal swabbing. It's a sort of pregnancy-style at-home test.

Another piece of good news is that this project is not unique. Last week, researchers at the University of Colorado announced that they have developed “a rapid, portable, saliva-based COVID-19 test able to return results in 45 minutes.”

LAMP (Loop-mediated isothermal amplification) is relatively new, it was only invented 20 years ago which is just after I stopped breathing carcinogenic fumes because I graduated.For anyone interested there's a bit of a discussion of PCR vs the LAMP technique that the saliva test uses.


The main difference is that LAMP is done at constant temperature as opposed PCR which requires a thermal cycler which brings the cycles the temperature between 50 and 95 degrees dozens of times within the "developing time" of the test. (That machine is expensive and generally can only has the capacity to cycle a few dozen samples at a time). Also LAMP generally detects DNA optically by meauring the cloudiness of the sample directly after the reaction while PCR generally requires some kind of labelled probe which adds a step ( though for simple diagnostics like this I think there are techniques that don't use specific probes).
 

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LAMP (Loop-mediated isothermal amplification) is relatively new, it was only invented 20 years ago which is just after I stopped breathing carcinogenic fumes because I graduated.For anyone interested there's a bit of a discussion of PCR vs the LAMP technique that the saliva test uses.


The main difference is that LAMP is done at constant temperature as opposed PCR which requires a thermal cycler which brings the cycles the temperature between 50 and 95 degrees dozens of times within the "developing time" of the test. (That machine is expensive and generally can only has the capacity to cycle a few dozen samples at a time). Also LAMP generally detects DNA optically by meauring the cloudiness of the sample directly after the reaction while PCR generally requires some kind of labelled probe which adds a step ( though for simple diagnostics like this I think there are techniques that don't use specific probes).
Interesting, thanks for the link.

This is fascinating stuff, TBH. Any non-invasive test or diagnostic technique that is fast and that actually works would be a major step forward.
 
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