["Topaz"]

This is one plausible scenario. Biased, yes. Several considerations must be understood at the onset.

- Regardless of points to be dropped along the way to yearend, only the 17 best results of 2003 will be tallied in the end for the two girls involved.

- Kim has room for 5 more tourneys and Venus, 11.

- In support of my scenario (forgive me, this is my post) I assume:
For Kim, 3 Tier-2 wins and 2 Major finals (ie, USOpen and TourChamp). Such results should definitely be part of her best 17, thereby displacing lower results from other tourneys she might enter.
For Venus, 3 Tier-2, 3 Tier-1 and 2 Major wins, that's 8 tourneys. She has room for 3 more tourneys which I assume she either blew or didn't enter for lack of energy.

- Points assigned to the tourneys are estimates based on past results.

					name ->		Kim	Venus
					tr ->		12	6
					2003 pts ->	4136	2211
____________________________________________________________________
							pts	pts
Jul*28	Acura*Classic*-*San*Diego	II	HO	300	 
Aug*4	JP*Morgan*Chase*Open - LA	II	HO	300	
Aug*11	Coupe*Rogers*AT&T*Cup*-*TO	I	HO		450
Aug*18	Pilot*Pen*Tennis*-*New*Haven	II	HO		
Aug*25	US*Open*-*Flushing*Meadows	Slam	HO	650	1100
Sep*15	Shanghai*-*CHN			II	HO		
Sep*22	Sparkassen*Cup**-*Leipzig	II	SI		300
Sep*29	Ladies*Kremlin*Cup*-*Moscow	I	SI		450
Oct*6	Porsche*Tennis*-*Filderstadt	II	HI		300
Oct*13	Swisscom*Challenge*-*Zurich	I	HI	 	450
Oct*20	Generali*Ladies*Linz,*AUT	II	HI	300	
Oct*27	Advanta*Championships*-*Phil	II	HI		300
Nov*3	Tour*Championships*–*LA		Tour	HI	475	750
____________________________________________________________________	
					total pts ->	6161	6311

BTW, a column could be generated for Justine as well with end result not far from Kim's. Right now, on the yearend race, Justine stands at 3743 pts and 11 tourneys. Again, this is a plausible scenario skewed towards Venus. Now, have a go at it, and, as usual, without reserve.

 

[great smash]

Can: Yes
Probability: 5 %

Just a guess, just not very likely!

 

[alexusjonesfan]

what's next?
Can Tatiana Poutchek end the year ranked no.1?
I think she's got a shot

 

[wtn_amanda]

* is confused *

 

[MartinaI]

it won't happen, sorry!

 

[Knizzle]

Venus usually schedules 3 tournament between the US Open and the tour championships. Moscow, Zurich, and one other. My guess is tha she will pick up one of Serena's tournaments in place of her. If Cliljsters doesn't defend all of her points at LA, Venus could be really close to her and Justine for #1.

 

[Hurley]

Since when does Venus play 17 events a year? Including 10 in the span of three months?

Maybe next year.

Edit: sorry, 7. Even that is highly unlikely. But I hope she does!

 

[Infiniti2001]

Venus winning the US Open will be enough satifaction for this fan

 

[rottweily]

This is one plausible scenario. Biased, yes. Several considerations must be understood at the onset.

- Regardless of points to be dropped along the way to yearend, only the 17 best results of 2003 will be tallied in the end for the two girls involved.

- Kim has room for 5 more tourneys and Venus, 11.

- In support of my scenario (forgive me, this is my post) I assume:
For Kim, 3 Tier-2 wins and 2 Major finals (ie, USOpen and TourChamp). Such results should definitely be part of her best 17, thereby displacing lower results from other tourneys she might enter.
For Venus, 3 Tier-2, 3 Tier-3 and 2 Major wins, that's 8 tourneys. She has room for 3 more tourneys which I assume she blew or didn't enter for lack of energy.

- Points assigned to the tourneys are estimates based on past results.

					name ->		Kim	Venus
					tr ->		12	6
					2003 pts ->	4136	2211
____________________________________________________________________
							pts	pts
Jul*28	Acura*Classic*-*San*Diego	II	HO	300	 
Aug*4	JP*Morgan*Chase*Open - LA	II	HO	300	
Aug*11	Coupe*Rogers*AT&T*Cup*-*TO	I	HO		450
Aug*18	Pilot*Pen*Tennis*-*New*Haven	II	HO		
Aug*25	US*Open*-*Flushing*Meadows	Slam	HO	650	1100
Sep*15	Shanghai*-*CHN			II	HO		
Sep*22	Sparkassen*Cup**-*Leipzig	II	SI		300
Sep*29	Ladies*Kremlin*Cup*-*Moscow	I	SI		450
Oct*6	Porsche*Tennis*-*Filderstadt	II	HI		300
Oct*13	Swisscom*Challenge*-*Zurich	I	HI	 	450
Oct*20	Generali*Ladies*Linz,*AUT	II	HI	300	
Oct*27	Advanta*Championships*-*Phil	II	HI		300
Nov*3	Tour*Championships*–*LA		Tour	HI	475	750
____________________________________________________________________	
					total pts ->	6161	6311

BTW, a column could be generated for Justine as well with end result not far from Kim's. Right now, on the yearend race, Justine stands at 3743 pts and 11 tourneys. Again, this is a plausible scenario skewed towards Venus. Now, have a go at it, and, as usual, without reserve.

:lol: in your dreams.

Two players have a realistic chance to be year end number 1:

Obvious: Kim
Less Obvious: Henin

 

[great smash]

Venus usually schedules 3 tournament between the US Open and the tour championships. Moscow, Zurich, and one other. My guess is tha she will pick up one of Serena's tournaments in place of her. If Cliljsters doesn't defend all of her points at LA, Venus could be really close to her and Justine for #1.

No, not likely. Defending has little to do with things:

Clijsters is now about 1900 ahead of Venus, that what really counts towards the year end ranking. Let say, and this is not too exagerated, by adding another 5 events Kim should get at least another 1000 points.

You really think that a regular fall season will bring Venus about 3000 points, considering the past 7 months in which she got to two GS finals only brought her 2211?

Let's be realistic!

 

[alexusjonesfan]

Venus winning the US Open will be enough satifaction for this fan

exactly! who would want to put her through 10 tourneys in 3 months...just to have some ranking that Serena's fans seem to care nothing about
It never seemed to bother Venus' fans that she was ranked no.4 so why would anyone need her to be no.1 on the computer now?

 

[Knizzle]

You never know what Venus will do. She had a ton of tournaments scheduled last year, but withdrew because of fatigue. She played 68 matches through the US Open last year. This year she has only played 31 matches through Acura. I wouldn't be surprised if Venus piayed 7 or 8 more tournaments the rest of the year. She can't be physically fatigued, and the injury is the only thing that would keep her out. Now that Serena is injured I think Venus will definitely play more because she doesn't have to worry about playing the same tournament as Serena.

 

["Topaz"]

No, not likely. Defending has little to do with things:

Clijsters is now about 1900 ahead of Venus, that what really counts towards the year end ranking. Let say, and this is not too exagerated, by adding another 5 events Kim should get at least another 1000 points.

You really think that a regular fall season will bring Venus about 3000 points, considering the past 7 months in which she got to two GS finals only brought her 2211?

Let's be realistic!

Great Smash, my scenario's numbers add up.

Besides the number of wins, one doubtful expectation is that Venus will have to stand a 4-week stretch of solid play between Sept-22 and Oct-19. She tends not to do that even though she should be able to.

Overall, this is a general picture. Dates can be changed, as well as results.

 

[great smash]

Great Smash, my scenario's numbers add up.

Besides the number of wins, one doubtful expectation is that Venus will have to stand a 4-week stretch of solid play between Sept-22 and Oct-19. She tends not to do that even though she should be able to.

Overall, this is a general picture. Dates can be changed, as well as results.

You're data provide a scenario which would enable Venus to get to #1.

But what's the actual chance of such scenario taking place?

 

[Dava]

I dont see Venus playing more then 3 or 4 events after the Open, and also remeber Serena is only sidelined until after the US Open (we hope), so she will be brought back into the equation.

 

["Topaz"]

But what's the actual chance of such scenario taking place?

Your guess is as good as mine. Personally, if I were a betting person, I wouldn't put hard earned money on it.
Yet, the possibility described by the scenario is real.

 

[ys]

By this point of her career Venus Williams has won one (1) tournament scheduled after US Open, and that happened as early as in 1999. And never since. And now I want to know the probability of her winning SIX (6) of those? 0%. Out of question.

 

["Topaz"]

Ys, I remember you didn't give Justine much chance against Nadia, yesterday. You may be wrong again.

 

[ys]

Ys, I remember you didn't give Justine much chance against Nadia, yesterday. You may be wrong again.

I may be wrong in one particular match. Anyone can be. But I am rarely wrong long-term. For instance, exactly an year ago, when the Williams dominance was absolute, and mere idea of some reasonable competition sounded like herecy, on these very boards I predicted that by the end of year 2003 WTAl have a new #1 not named Williams. Back then it sounded really crazy, didn't it? Now, your prediction sounds completely crazy. But let me remind you that in recent years we have few major domination of year end series. Hingis in year 2000. Davenport in y2001. But even then, with very limited competition they could not win everything. And for such an injury-prone player as VW, this schedule and these results are simply out of question.

 

["Topaz"]

I may be wrong in one particular match. Anyone can be. ...Now, your prediction sounds completely crazy.

You need to understand the difference between "prediction" and "outcome scenario". Review your Statistics lessons, please.