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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
12/12 wins on Hardcourt for OSAKA (4 HC slams)
21/24 wins on Hardcourt for BARTY (0 HC slams)

Guess who got lucky with draws?
 

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Haha, GOAT stat.

I don't really want to go into "lucky draws" argument because I cannot say Barty's draws were super hard, either (that RG draw says "Hello"). But those 37% success rate is a horrible one, feels as if Naomi truly does not have a plan B once put against the wall by the elite players and when things do not go her way. Barty looks steadier, also 6 top 10 wins happened just recenty so the gap looks a bit bigger than it should be.

BTW someone like Pironkova also has 12 top 10 wins. Has to show again about Naomi's devotion to the tour.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Haha, GOAT stat.

I don't really want to go into "lucky draws" argument because I cannot say Barty's draws were super hard, either (that RG draw says "Hello"). But those 37% success rate is a horrible one, feels as if Naomi truly does not have a plan B once put against the wall by the elite players and when things do not go her way. Barty looks steadier, also 6 top 10 wins happened just recenty so the gap looks a bit bigger than it should be.

BTW someone like Pironkova also has 12 top 10 wins. Has to show again about Naomi's devotion to the tour.
I think the stats show that Barty is underachieving at slams, despite the general consensus on TF being that her RG was a fluke of some sort.

On the other hand, Osaka has been punching above her weight at slams and certainly has gotten through many easy draws, as she struggles the most VS top 10 players and she has managed to avoid them in 3 of her slam winning runs.

In fact, she had 3 top 10 wins at at AO 19, and just another top 10 win at a slam way back in 2017 vs Kerber.
 

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I think it also speaks to possible failures in Barty's scouting reports, something she praises her coach for regularly. She clearly goes into matches against top players with a Plan A, B, C, and D, and variations when an opponent does X, Y, or Z, but when it's someone her team is less familiar with, there is a significant learning gap.

Considering the number of players against whom she has erased early career H2H deficits, it seems she might be someone who needs more looks at an opponent to do her best. Noteworthy as her top 10 win streak is, it also means she loses her matches to players who aren't at the top of the game.
 

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It's not like Naomi has beaten nobodies on her way to her slam victories.
She's beaten multiple multi-slam winners: Serena, Petra, Vika, Garbine - the last 3 playing close to their 'vintage' standard.
Wins over in-form tricky players like Su-wei/Sevastova or Brady aren't anything to scoff over either.

Naomi is very good at matching the level of her opponent on HC, which she displayed at the best at AO2021.
I'd say she was probably playing at 60-70%, but was able to raise her level when she needed to to get the wins.
 

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I think the stats show that Barty is underachieving at slams, despite the general consensus on TF being that her RG was a fluke of some sort.

On the other hand, Osaka has been punching above her weight at slams and certainly has gotten through many easy draws, as she struggles the most VS top 10 players and she has managed to avoid them in 3 of her slam winning runs.

In fact, she had 3 top 10 wins at at AO 19, and just another top 10 win at a slam way back in 2017 vs Kerber.
I don't think the stats show that Barty is underachieving at slams by a lot at least. Maybe by a little.

Grossly underachieving at slams are players like Kvitova, Svitolina, Radwanska, Dementieva, Novotna, Jankovic

Now if she doesn't get to another final this year and bombs out early in one of them, then she is underperforming. She hasn't been #1 for that long where she actually was at the GS. She's also only won 2 premier titles and a 1 WTA Finals.

Osaka on the other hand is way out performing in slams, almost an anomaly of sorts.
 

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I feel like Osaka is very match-up dependent, where as Barty/Andreescu have game-styles that translate well against any type of player.

Osaka can be beaten by 10-12 players in any given tournament, even on HARD and that number gets even bigger on grass/clay (Bencic, Gauff, Barty, Andreescu, Swiatek, Muguruza, Svitolina, Halep, Muchova, Sakkari, etc...) I know Barty & Andreescu have not beaten her yet, but if Sakkari can beat her on hardcourts I'd say that Barty/Swiatek/Andreescu probably can too.

So Osaka's best bet to win slams is to avoid certain players, like AO 21, Serena is good at clearing up draws for her.
 

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^^^ Pretty much that.
 
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Grand Slams:
Naomi Osaka - 4
Ashleigh Barty - 1

:p

...

But seriously, context is everything.

Osaka lost her first nine matches against Top 10 opposition. Since her first Top 10 win (against Kerber at USO 2017), she's 12-11 against Top 10 players (a positive record). Since the start of 2019, she's 7-2 against Top 10 opposition, with her only losses coming against Serena and Pliskova (where she had MP).
 

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One more time for the people in the back.
This is so often forgotten on here.
And what's the context? Half of those top 10 wins are in the same tournament as well which she eventually won - 3 in AO, 2 in Beijing, 2 in IW. No top 10 wins in over a year in which she had those 2 slams and is arguably the best player. 4 slams but just 7 titles in total. That's another context.

Of course, she is very far from a mediocre player, I don't think anyone would dare to say this, she is a very good player and her peak is very high, but this piece of statistics only shows she is not that good day-in-day-out and that she seems to put less effort to improve her weak sides (adding to the match-up issues). Actually that happens often to players who reach sudden success. And instead of looking for ways to focus better and improve, she's doing now the Mets Gala or whatever imaginary event it was.
 

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4 > 1
 
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Barty had one of the easiest draws in history to win her French Open. Just one seeded player, the 14th seed (Keys). Half of the others were children. Let's just stop this, because she deserved that RG just like Osaka deserved her majors. Osaka has had to play Serena in two separate late round matches in majors, and her Kvitova match win, alone, is more than Barty has EVER done on a court. Period.

Let's just see what they both (and others) do for the remainder of the year and stop these Osaka bashing threads. She really doesn't have much else to prove this year; she already has a major.
 

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Barty had one of the easiest draws in history to win her French Open. Just one seeded player, the 14th seed (Keys). Half of the others were children. Let's just stop this, because she deserved that RG just like Osaka deserved her majors. Osaka has had to play Serena in two separate late round matches in majors, and her Kvitova match win, alone, is more than Barty has EVER done on a court. Period.

Let's just see what they both (and others) do for the remainder of the year and stop these Osaka bashing threads. She really doesn't have much else to prove this year; she already has a major.
This took me out 💀
 
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This took me out 💀
I'm just telling the truth lmao. She played Marketa (19 at the time), Amanda (17), and Kenin (20). She played a resurgent(?) Petkovic (31), and three OTHER U.S. Americans who still haven't won a major. Kenin, the other U.S. American, is the only major champion of the bunch even now. Three of these girls couldn't even drink alcohol legally in the U.S. at the time. That draw was too gracious. It's like a misnomer tbh.
 

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I think this is just the consequence of being a part-time player who peaks only in the hard courts. I'm sure Naomi would rack up more top 10 wins if she played more. Plus, sucking on clay/grass doesn't help her case. As for slam runs, you can only beat the players you face, so it's not Naomi's (or Barty's) fault that the other top players flopped before they could play them. In this era, top 10 wins aren't as big of a thing as before.

As an overall career though, despite the 3 slam count difference between the two, I guess it shows their careers aren't at hugely different levels. I hope Ash can win more slams in the future to reflect how well she's done on the regular tour though - please no more random flops!
 
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