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post #5 of (permalink) Old May 23rd, 2018, 09:16 PM Thread Starter
country flag Paullow
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

Quote:
Originally Posted by pesto View Post
I have included last year's cuts as a guide to relative strengths of the events. Obviously this year won't be the same, but it might be vaguely similar?

W/C 4th June
Surbiton Trophy: Last year's MD cut was 244
4 MDWCs, 6 QWCs

Watson, Broady and Boulter are MD direct entry.

My guess: More withdrawals will occur, and Gabi will also get in by right. Dart, Dunne, Swan and Robson will be the first choices for MDWCs. If even more withdrawals occur and some of those get in by right, the WCs will go to lower-ranked players. Fran Jones and Maia Lumsden were alternates on the entry list here, but have pulled out, so I don't know if they have other plans. If available, they'd be on the list as possible MDWCs, along with Moore and Burrage. The QWCs could go almost anywhere, as some of the higher-ranked of the lesser players will probably ultimately make the Q-draw by right.

Yeah hopefully it gets own to at least Gabi with extended RG runs and doubles - if any of those get into the 2nd week then they will withdraw and as you say, the MDWCs here would then pick themselves. Maia is MD in a Portugal 25k and Fran is currently on the second on the qual list there.

W/C 11th June
Nottingham Open: Last year's MD cut was 107, QD cut was 565
2 or 3 MDWCs, 4 QWC

Manchester Trophy: Last year's MD cut was 321
4 MDWCs, 6 QWC

Watson is MD DE to Nottingham, Naomi will probably play Manc.

My guess: The big question is, who will get the 2 or 3 Nottingham MDWCs, as Brits down to Robson may be ranked high enough to choose between Nottingham Q-draw and Manc main draw as direct entrants, so lower-ranked and younger players will get some chances. My guess is Boulter and Taylor for Notts MDWCs if there are two. Robson was a doubles finalist here last year, so if there is a third, maybe she might sneak in, unless someone else had a stunning week in Surbiton.

Yeah, Broady is on the posters for Manchester so would be stunned if she wasn't playing there - we'll find out this time tomorrow when the early entries are out. I'd think KB and GT as well, they are generally the best places, played Fed Cup and bit of a home event for KB. Will be interesting to see, assuming that's the case, if Swan and Dunne would rather get a WC (if needed) into Manchester or play quallies at Notts (prob via a QWC).

W/C 18th June
Birmingham Classic: Last year's MD cut was 97, QD cut was 384 (it started with a great list, then there was a deluge of withdrawals, IIRC).
2 MDWC, 4QWC

Ilkley Trophy: Last year's MD cut was 137
4 MDWC 6 QWC

Wildcard playoff (21st and 22nd)

I think they will go with the obvious duo of Watson and Broady for Brum MDWCs, unless there are withdrawals and Hev gets in by right, in which case, they will either give a MDWC to one of the next six who didn't get a MDWC in Notts, or to whoever has had the best results so far.

Such a high cut in Ilkley last year. If it is this strong again, WCs will be needed by just about everyone, but some might prefer to chance it in Brum qualies.

Yeah, as above it will be interesting to see if those 170-250 prefer direct entry into a 100k or try and qualify for a 500k, I think I'd prefer the former if I was them. I'm also going to Ilkley so hope that there are a few of the best prospects going there and with respect, not just those ranked 400-700 and not even young.

I guess there could be QWCs on the line here as if someone has a shock good run they may avoid the playoff an get a QWC. I assume you could enter the likes of Ikley and if out early and don't receive a QWC, then you could still enter the WC playoff later that week?


W/C 25th June
Eastbourne International: Last year's MD cut was 58, QD cut was 134
2 MDWCs, 4 QWCs

Southsea Trophy: Last year's MD cut was 111
2 MDWC (16 draw, no Qs)

Wimbledon qualifying
8 QWC (but may not all be British)

My guess: Hev again for MDWC to Eastbourne, unless she has failed utterly miserably in the first 3 tournaments (quite possible) and other players have excelled. Again, I think the second will go to a second tier player who has not yet received a MDWC for Notts or Brum, unless someone has had some stunning results in the first three weeks. Robson and Lumsden with Wimby QWCs. Wimbledon MDWC recipients will all get something this week, either to Southsea or to Eastbourne Qs. Which means that missing out on a MDWC at Wimby will be a double blow.

Hopefully 6 Wimby MDWCs are given out to Brits and then that pretty much solves the 7 issue and they could even give to 7th to a random Brit or perhaps to someone who would usually have been considered for a Wimbledon WC but will miss out due to the home player resurgence.

W/C 2nd July
Wimbledon
8 MDWC (but won't all be British)

How many will they give to Brits, and who is going to miss out?! It's the first time that I can remember having more deserving candidates than probable WCs available. Wimby WCs have been discussed to death elsewhere, so not much to add here, until we see how results from earlier tournaments pan out.
Good post. Gave a few of my own thoughts within your points and it will be very interesting to see how the ITF entry lists materialise and then how all the decisions pan out. Crazy how it's just over 2 weeks to the start of the proper grass season (and the French just around the corner), the year has flown by.
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