I would also say the chances are about 50/50
It's the third meeting, and either Kiri and Pavs won one match.
They met twice in 2009, Pavs won on hardcourt and Kiri on clay
I hope I can the watch the match tomorrow! DAVAI Maria!!
Well, 2009 was sooo long ago, and both of them play much better now. Pavlyuchenkova has some very good results lately:
- Brisbane, final, 320 points,
- Kuala Lumpur, semi final, 130 points,
- Monterrey champion, 280 points,
- Estoril, champion , 280 points,
- Seoul, final, 200 points
The main lesson from all these is, that now Pavlyuchenkova is able to win several matches in a row - she is strong enough, mentally and physically as well. She is in much better shape now - less extra weight, for example.
Who could beat her in the important cases?
- Serena (Brisbane),
- Mattek-Sands (Kuala Lumpur),
- Kvitova (New Haven),
- Aga Radwanska (US Open),
- Aga Radwanska (Seoul),
- Halep (Tokyo, retired),
- Jankovic (Beijing, melt-down)
Her loss against Aga Radwanska, Halep and Jankovic may show, that keeping the error rate low enough might be a key factor in beating her. Also, she could loss some of her physical form for the last part of the season.
A first match against such a strong opponent is very far from being optimal for Maria (she is a slow starter). Nevertheless, a play like Maria showed vs. Serena (in Beijing), would be enough!
The biggest danger for Maria is if she lets Pavlyuchenkova to be the aggressor (controlling the rallies), and if she thinks too early that the point is already won. Also, she must NOT give up the fight too early, even if she is in handicap.