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post #1 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2019, 04:36 PM Thread Starter
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Wimbledon wildcard chat

A few of us have been discussing this for a good few weeks now on the Strawberries & Cream section, but with just over 3 weeks to go until qualifying starts and a couple of weeks until the initial WC picks, it would be good to get some widespread discussion and opinions.

No reciprocal wildcards as usual or no official race, but the previous junior winner and grass ITF winners will have a great chance as in previous years. I think the below 5 are extremely likely:

Boulter - If fit. Got herself comfortably into the cut off position, but no tour match since the start of March has seen her slide out of the top 100. Won a match last year and an instrumental part of the successful GB Fed Cup team, so if she is able to play, there's no doubt she'll be included.

Swiatek - even before this great run it was pretty much nailed she would get one as last years jr champ, huge potential, being just 4 places off getting in directly and they've never not given a jr champ some reward for over 10 years. Zhuk was injured and a couple were already in the main draw, but everyone else were rewarded.

Watson - Had a largely terrible year, but managed to win a few recent matches in Japanese ITFs, and a title, to come within one win of securing her place directly. She's 3 withdrawals from getting in and there will be some doubts like Sharapova, Andreescu, Gavrilova etc., but if the latter 2 couldn't feature, they'll likely delay withdrawal as late as possible opening up LL spots, rather than alts getting in.

Dart - Started the year very well, but has struggled since coming back from injury. Still, reasonably young, still in and around the top 150 and performed really well against Pliskova last year. Part of the Fed Cup team.

Swan - Very poor year and she recently opened up about her mental health struggles. Has fallen outside the top 200, but is still young and had a couple of encouraging top 150 wins in FO quals last week. Also won a Wimbledon match last year and was part of the Fed Cup team, so has sacrificed weeks where she could have picked up more points.

If they are all required (bar injury / sneaking in directly), I can't see any reason why they would be overlooked and I personally think those 5 are nailed on.

I'd imagine the Surbiton (starts next week), Manchester and Ilkley W100 winners would be prioritised for the final 3 MDWCs. Surbiton may experience a few French Open withdrawals like Zhang, but it is still very strong and there'll probably be 8 or 9 Wimbledon entrants (including defending champ Riske) as well as some Brits (Watson), so there's a good chance that winner won't need a MDWC, likewise Ilkley which will also have a high number of those already in the Wimbledon draw. However, there's only Linette, Diyas and Brengle (Kumkhum could yet sneak in) already at Wimbledon in the Manchester field, so there's far more chance that one will be won by someone requiring a MDWC.

The likes of Burrage, Dunne and maybe young Raducanu will probably be relying on the ITFs being won by someone already at Wimbledon (or themselves in the former 2's case), Boulter being injured and/or Watson/Swiatek sneaking in, as will any other Brit not mentioned yet who have a couple of good weeks at Surbiton and Nottingham/Manchester. Naiktha Bains will also be an interesting situation having recent ly switched allegiances from Australia to GB and finding herself on the periphery of the qualifying cut off.

Any alternative views?
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post #2 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2019, 06:06 PM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

Outside shot to Bolsova after making the FO 4th rd
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post #3 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2019, 06:43 PM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

Last year Jr Winner Swiatek is a LOCK.
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post #4 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2019, 07:51 PM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

I think Webley smith will get a doubles wildcard she’s been doing quite well!


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post #5 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2019, 08:02 PM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

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I think Webley smith will get a doubles wildcard she’s been doing quite well!


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With another Brit or with the player she has done so well with over the past month?
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post #6 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 1st, 2019, 08:39 PM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

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With another Brit or with the player she has done so well with over the past month?


I guess it depends what they ask her, personally they let her and shapatava play together IMO.


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post #7 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 2nd, 2019, 05:28 AM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

Locks

Watson
Boulter
Dart
Swan
Raducanu
Swiatek

If Watson and Boulter both use their WCs that leaves quite a battle between Bains/Burrage/Dunne plus potentially Bolsova, the ITF winners and anyone who makes a big run in Nottingham.
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post #8 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 2nd, 2019, 07:25 AM
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Burrage has just hit top 250 ( goes around 235 on Monday ) with her itf wins so may get a MDWC, Swiatek hopefully bag one
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post #9 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 2nd, 2019, 07:44 AM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

There’s a really good chance of Bolsova getting one now. Wimbledon likes giving WCs to players who zoom into the top 100 based on RG performance.
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post #10 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 2nd, 2019, 07:48 AM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

I don’t see it for Bolsova. She has never played on grass as Pro, only 3 tournaments an a Junior and she won one match only.
She isn’t scheduled to play any grass tournaments either.
Maybe she can change her mind and ask for a Mallorca WC, given that Arruabarrena is injured and CSN and Muguruza are going to Birmingham.

They see grass pedigree before allocating WCs.
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post #11 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 2nd, 2019, 07:48 AM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

Swiatek is Alt#3, there is chance she goes into MD without WC.
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post #12 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 2nd, 2019, 07:53 AM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

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Originally Posted by Javi View Post
I don’t see it for Bolsova. She has never played on grass as Pro, only 3 tournaments an a Junior and she won one match only.
She isn’t scheduled to play any grass tournaments either.
Maybe she can change her mind and ask for a Mallorca WC, given that Arruabarrena is injured and CSN and Muguruza are going to Birmingham.

They see grass pedigree before allocating WCs.
They would probably find it hard to deny a slam QF if she makes it there, but not playing Nottingham/Manchester will definitely hurt her chances.
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post #13 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 2nd, 2019, 08:12 AM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

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They would probably find it hard to deny a slam QF if she makes it there, but not playing Nottingham/Manchester will definitely hurt her chances.
They denied it for Marta Marrero though. She was also coming from Q and reached QF in Roland Garros.
OTOH Carla Suárez Navarro received a WC also after making QF coming from Q.

I think she needs to beat Anisimova to have a slight chance but I wouldn’t bet for her to get it. Probably they’ll save it for someone going deep in the big grass ITFs
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post #14 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 2nd, 2019, 08:15 AM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

I'd agree that Bolsova's lack of grass pedigree will hurt her. I think she needs to win one more round to be in the conversation.

Raducanu has been focusing on school exams recently, and I think is not match-tough enough for a MDWC, unless she gets WCs into the warm-up events and kicks some ass.

Of the Brits on the edge (below Swan), Burrage seems best placed due to youth and recency of her best results. But that could easily be shaken up if she goes winless in the ITFs, and Dunne / Bains / Lumsden / Raducanu beat some notable players.

Like last year, I think Wimbledon will use its full allocation of 8 MDWCs this year.

Boulter (and possibly Dart and Swan) is injured, Watson and Swiatek may squeak in directly, 3 ITF winners may need one. I think those uncertainties will need to be ironed out before deciding on the more borderline cases.
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post #15 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 2nd, 2019, 08:40 AM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

Lots of uncertainty with two WC locks so close to the cut-off, and impossible to say at this stage whether Swiatek and Watson will squeak in. Also, Boulter's injury sounded like it might keep her out of Wimbledon, and Dart's still out injured as well.

Swan doesn't deserve a WC based on her recent results but the optics of denying a top 200 player who's opened up about mental health struggles wouldn't be good.

Raducanu is a properly good prospect and I imagine the AELTC will have observed her peer Diane Parry's success at RG in the past two years - would not be surprised if she's considered ahead of the likes of Burrage and Lumsden based on her junior and limited pro success. Burrage and Lumsden are also below the grass ITF winners and any WTA grass deep runs from outside the cutoff, imo.

Bolsova should be a lock in a fair world but I don't think R4 at RG is quite enough (even though it should be). QF would boost her chances a lot but Wimbledon don't really have a set pattern about their approach to RG deep runs - sometimes they reward them (CSN, arguably even Townsend's R3 run combined with her junior final), sometimes they don't (Marrero).

If Wimbledon will give someone like Melnikova a WC based on winning a grass ITF then I'd say those champions, whoever they are, are 100% locks.

If Swiatek squeaks in it's possible that the RU, Kung, will get a QWC. When Bencic made the MD directly the following year, the RU Townsend got a MDWC (albeit with way more pro success than Kung has had so far).

Way too early to be definitive though given how much depends on injuries, cutoffs and grass results.
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