I don't think Jones was by any means a lock for a direct QWC when the grass season started. She was ranked outside the top 450, with no notable results this year, and was skipping grass.
But this past fortnight has revolutionised her position - she has just completed the Minsk double. She'll leap into the top 300, but there are too many Brits above her, and she has too little experience on grass, to expect a MDWC. I'd be surprised with more or less than a QWC.
Agreed, but there are a few MDWCs above her in the standings looking a bit shaky now:
1-2. Watson, Swiatek - but only needs 3-4 w/ds to get in directly.
3. Boulter - but battling to come back from injury. Has not played any grass events which only leaves Eastbourne as a possibility for her.
4. Dart - seems to be back so sure at this point.
5. Swan - ditto.
6. Bains - at this point she seems to be the fifth favourite Brit so I think she will get one, especially if Katie Boulter pulls out.
7. Burrage - is out with injury.
8. Dunne - has been playing well but withdrew from last match. I am sure Wimbledon will only give a QWC to her if they think she cannot compete properly.
9. Lumsden - also got a WC for Nottingham and won a round, so that means she is at least being considered. Has a chance, especially if others above her withdraw or get in directly.
10. Raducanu - complete absence from grass season - injury? exams? Not played since April. I find it doubtful that she would receive an MDWC without any sort of grass showing and that only leaves maybe Ilkley and Eastbourne to get a WC.
11. Jones - I think she will only get an MDWC if others above her pull out/don't need an MDWC. But that is quite possible - Burrage has already gone and Boulter and Dunne are doubtful.
12. Taylor - I don't think she will get an MDWC this year as she has slumped in the rankings and been overtaken by too many others. I see her getting a QWC to Roehampton.
13-14. Murray, Broady - did well in Manchester but not well enough to get MDWCs - they should be hopeful of QWCs.
15. Moore - QWC rather than MDWC.
16. Ilkley winner - the only chance of another foreign player getting an MDWC, but all ITF finals have been between top 100 players so far, so this may not happen.