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post #76 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 16th, 2019, 01:04 PM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

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I don't think Jones was by any means a lock for a direct QWC when the grass season started. She was ranked outside the top 450, with no notable results this year, and was skipping grass.

But this past fortnight has revolutionised her position - she has just completed the Minsk double. She'll leap into the top 300, but there are too many Brits above her, and she has too little experience on grass, to expect a MDWC. I'd be surprised with more or less than a QWC.
Agreed, but there are a few MDWCs above her in the standings looking a bit shaky now:

1-2. Watson, Swiatek - but only needs 3-4 w/ds to get in directly.
3. Boulter - but battling to come back from injury. Has not played any grass events which only leaves Eastbourne as a possibility for her.
4. Dart - seems to be back so sure at this point.
5. Swan - ditto.
6. Bains - at this point she seems to be the fifth favourite Brit so I think she will get one, especially if Katie Boulter pulls out.
7. Burrage - is out with injury.
8. Dunne - has been playing well but withdrew from last match. I am sure Wimbledon will only give a QWC to her if they think she cannot compete properly.
9. Lumsden - also got a WC for Nottingham and won a round, so that means she is at least being considered. Has a chance, especially if others above her withdraw or get in directly.
10. Raducanu - complete absence from grass season - injury? exams? Not played since April. I find it doubtful that she would receive an MDWC without any sort of grass showing and that only leaves maybe Ilkley and Eastbourne to get a WC.
11. Jones - I think she will only get an MDWC if others above her pull out/don't need an MDWC. But that is quite possible - Burrage has already gone and Boulter and Dunne are doubtful.
12. Taylor - I don't think she will get an MDWC this year as she has slumped in the rankings and been overtaken by too many others. I see her getting a QWC to Roehampton.
13-14. Murray, Broady - did well in Manchester but not well enough to get MDWCs - they should be hopeful of QWCs.
15. Moore - QWC rather than MDWC.
16. Ilkley winner - the only chance of another foreign player getting an MDWC, but all ITF finals have been between top 100 players so far, so this may not happen.
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post #77 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 16th, 2019, 01:19 PM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

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Agreed, but there are a few MDWCs above her in the standings looking a bit shaky now:

1-2. Watson, Swiatek - but only needs 3-4 w/ds to get in directly.
3. Boulter - but battling to come back from injury. Has not played any grass events which only leaves Eastbourne as a possibility for her.
4. Dart - seems to be back so sure at this point.
5. Swan - ditto.
6. Bains - at this point she seems to be the fifth favourite Brit so I think she will get one, especially if Katie Boulter pulls out.
7. Burrage - is out with injury.
8. Dunne - has been playing well but withdrew from last match. I am sure Wimbledon will only give a QWC to her if they think she cannot compete properly.
9. Lumsden - also got a WC for Nottingham and won a round, so that means she is at least being considered. Has a chance, especially if others above her withdraw or get in directly.
10. Raducanu - complete absence from grass season - injury? exams? Not played since April. I find it doubtful that she would receive an MDWC without any sort of grass showing and that only leaves maybe Ilkley and Eastbourne to get a WC.
11. Jones - I think she will only get an MDWC if others above her pull out/don't need an MDWC. But that is quite possible - Burrage has already gone and Boulter and Dunne are doubtful.
12. Taylor - I don't think she will get an MDWC this year as she has slumped in the rankings and been overtaken by too many others. I see her getting a QWC to Roehampton.
13-14. Murray, Broady - did well in Manchester but not well enough to get MDWCs - they should be hopeful of QWCs.
15. Moore - QWC rather than MDWC.
16. Ilkley winner - the only chance of another foreign player getting an MDWC, but all ITF finals have been between top 100 players so far, so this may not happen.
I broadly agree, but they really do like to give out a couple of international wildcards. Back at least to 2008, they have always given at least two, and sometimes as many as five. I do wonder if they will scrape around to find someone international if the Ilkley one is not required.

They have very often gone "next in", rather than hand out WCs to underwhelming players.

Fran made a deliberate decision to skip grass, and it paid off big time. But Wimbledon likes players who show commitment to grass. She only beat one player within the top 350 to win those two $25K clay titles - Jaqueline Cristian at #230. I don't think they will see that as evidence of being ready for a Wimbledon MDWC.
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post #78 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 16th, 2019, 01:35 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

I certainly don't see Heather or Swiatek sneaking in directly (unless via next in), because at this stage, there's no need for players, certainly not 3 or 4, to withdraw when they can hang back a week and pick up around £23k which they are entitled to do - it just doesn't make sense.

I now think there are 5 locks - Swiatek, Watson, Boulter (if fit), Dart and Swan, plus a potential Ilkley winner, the rest are subjective and there would be reasons to include and exclude the likes of Dunne and Bains, or anyone else. If the Ilkley winner is won by say a Rybarikova or Linette (who don't need a MDWC), then there is a chance they could just go next in for the final 3, which would be a massive shame IMO. If that's the case, there's a chance that Jakupovic could end up getting in if they only use Boulter, Dart and Swan as actual WCs.

Dalia is 28, hasn't won a match on grass this year, is on a 6 match losing streak* and once her Birmingham points come off (before the Championships), she would be outside the top 140, whereas someone like Bolsova is 21, in much better form and currently inside the top 100, so if they have 8 picks, I'd much rather they actually use them, even if it was to reward young Rybakina for reaching a WTA semi final (from qualifiers) in her first ever pro grass event - it would be so lazy if it ended up being those 3 Brits, then Jorovic, Kumkhum, Watson, Swiatek and Jakupovic all as next in, so I do kind of hope the Ilkley winner is external.

*Jakupovic is actually 1-10 and that only win was against Zimmermann (who is/was outside the top 200) in an ITF event.

Last edited by Paullow; Jun 16th, 2019 at 01:47 PM.
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post #79 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 16th, 2019, 03:04 PM
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Dalila is still better option for direct MD, than some random WC. I mean she beat Osaka and Mertens last year on grass, this year she played only one match on grass, so you can't really know what is her form at this stage. However, I strongly believe that British Association will give more than 3 WC's. They are not dump.
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post #80 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 16th, 2019, 03:30 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

They'd technically still be giving out 5 WCs, just that 2 of those may end up not being needed. I'd imagine Swiatek would definitely be announced on Wednesday in the initial picks for a good bit of PR, in that they are rewarding their reigning junior champion, but then it might just be handed back if there's no other credible options post Ilkley, and they go next in.

Jakupovic had a very good Nott'm and B'ham last year, but still didn't get a WC (there were more realistic Brits last year mind) and then went out in Q2 despite being the highest seed in her section, but I just think, if you have 8 options at your disposal that you can use however you see fit, then there will be far better options (like those 2 overseas players I have listed) than someone who probably won't even end up a top 32 Q seed.

Not long to go until we find out, but I'd like to think there'd be an additional Brit to the apparent 4, to make 5, (and Swiatek), among the 8 picks.
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post #81 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 16th, 2019, 09:27 PM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

Jakupovic should have got a WC last year tbh. The silver lining was that those grass points would still count for this year's cutoff date.

Rybakina should get a WC this year but Wimbledon have tended to ignore 's-Hertogenbosch, I can't remember a single occasion when an impressive result there has led to a WC, which is a shame.

I think Raducanu has a stronger chance than most in here, if her absence so far is due to exams that mean she couldn't have played the warmups. She's an elite member of her age group by pro results and Wimbledon have probably noted her peer Diane Parry's RG success with interest.

Bains, Lumsden, Dunne and everyone else beneath them would be scraping the barrel a bit as things currently stand, really.
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post #82 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 16th, 2019, 10:44 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

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Jakupovic should have got a WC last year tbh. The silver lining was that those grass points would still count for this year's cutoff date.

Rybakina should get a WC this year but Wimbledon have tended to ignore 's-Hertogenbosch, I can't remember a single occasion when an impressive result there has led to a WC, which is a shame.

I think Raducanu has a stronger chance than most in here, if her absence so far is due to exams that mean she couldn't have played the warmups. She's an elite member of her age group by pro results and Wimbledon have probably noted her peer Diane Parry's RG success with interest.

Bains, Lumsden, Dunne and everyone else beneath them would be scraping the barrel a bit as things currently stand, really.
Those 3 are certainly not indispensable by any means and it will likely come down to whether they have a senior figure fighting their corner, but it wouldn't be an outrage if any of them were overlooked. Jodie would have been a bit different as she has come on massively this year, has a number of decent wins and is younger - it's just a shame she couldn't convert one of those 4 MPs against Lapko as her ranking would have been even higher with that win and she wouldn't have got injured (in that match at least). Massive shame.

I'd personally still like to see Katy get in (if fit though - she retired after 3 games last week and looks certain not to play this week, and the last thing they'll want is a WC retiring at Wimbledon). She's had a couple of good grass wins this season and gave Riske one of her closest matches in her 10 match winning streak, and she was also a big hit with the fans on Centre Court last year in her match with Ostapenko - she's definitely far less likely to be embarrassed than Naiktha or Maia anyway, for what that's worth. That said, she is lower ranked than last year which isn't a great bargaining position to be in, even if she has missed out a couple of grass events to improve it. I guess we'll see.

Speaking of juniors, I see young Holly Fischer is back on the scene with an Ilkley QWC tomorrow - she may well be on the radar again for another out of the blue Wimbledon QWC like last year.
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post #83 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 16th, 2019, 10:59 PM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

If Holly gets a good result in Ilkley, fair enough, but if not, another embarrassing Wimby QWC for her? No thanks. Play-offs, with all the others of a similar level.
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post #84 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 16th, 2019, 11:15 PM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

Bolsova won her QR1 in Mallorca. Maybe she'll have a deep run through from the qualies there, add a notable result on grass to her impressive Garros run, and grab a WC outta nowhere.
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post #85 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 16th, 2019, 11:40 PM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

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I certainly don't see Heather or Swiatek sneaking in directly (unless via next in), because at this stage, there's no need for players, certainly not 3 or 4, to withdraw when they can hang back a week and pick up around £23k which they are entitled to do - it just doesn't make sense.

I now think there are 5 locks - Swiatek, Watson, Boulter (if fit), Dart and Swan, plus a potential Ilkley winner, the rest are subjective and there would be reasons to include and exclude the likes of Dunne and Bains, or anyone else. If the Ilkley winner is won by say a Rybarikova or Linette (who don't need a MDWC), then there is a chance they could just go next in for the final 3, which would be a massive shame IMO. If that's the case, there's a chance that Jakupovic could end up getting in if they only use Boulter, Dart and Swan as actual WCs.

Dalia is 28, hasn't won a match on grass this year, is on a 6 match losing streak* and once her Birmingham points come off (before the Championships), she would be outside the top 140, whereas someone like Bolsova is 21, in much better form and currently inside the top 100, so if they have 8 picks, I'd much rather they actually use them, even if it was to reward young Rybakina for reaching a WTA semi final (from qualifiers) in her first ever pro grass event - it would be so lazy if it ended up being those 3 Brits, then Jorovic, Kumkhum, Watson, Swiatek and Jakupovic all as next in, so I do kind of hope the Ilkley winner is external.

*Jakupovic is actually 1-10 and that only win was against Zimmermann (who is/was outside the top 200) in an ITF event.
It really depends who the pull outs are. I just can't see Coco Vandeweghe playing with no matches in months and I don't see her flying all the way from California just to pick up a cheque. It would be different with a player who is already based in Europe, like Camila Giorgi, possibly. It's also about the status and wealth of the player - a low-ranked player is far more likely to do this, it would look pretty skanky for a top 30-ish player like Andreescu or Giorgi to fly to London just to pull out and pick up a cheque.
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post #86 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 17th, 2019, 12:00 AM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

Have had a feeling for months that Raducanu would get a MDWC and I still feel that way. I won't be surprised if she doesn't get one, but with Burrage out and Boulter very questionable, it certainly improves her chances. At this point it's common knowledge in the British tennis circles that Emma is a serious talent and, given a favorably draw, could potentially win a match. Her 6-1, 6-2 drubbing of Badosa Gibert was just ridiculous tennis, winners all over the place. The win over Anderson who was coming off a 60K final and loves playing indoors, was also quite notable imo.

That said, she hasn't played since April due to the exams and while I'm aware she's kept practicing, the lack of match practice does concern me. I would love to see her get one though, really think if she was to draw a Pegula, Ferro, Lapko or Rodina for example (granted I've given some of the very weakest players in the draw as examples) she would have a good shot at that.

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post #87 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 17th, 2019, 11:26 AM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

1) Katie Boulter
2) Heather Watson
3) Harriet Dart
4) Emma Raducanu
5) Iga Swiatek
6) Katie Swan
7) Naiktha Bains
8) Katy Dunne
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post #88 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 17th, 2019, 06:06 PM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

How about SABINE LISICKI??? LOL
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post #89 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 17th, 2019, 06:14 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

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It really depends who the pull outs are. I just can't see Coco Vandeweghe playing with no matches in months and I don't see her flying all the way from California just to pick up a cheque. It would be different with a player who is already based in Europe, like Camila Giorgi, possibly. It's also about the status and wealth of the player - a low-ranked player is far more likely to do this, it would look pretty skanky for a top 30-ish player like Andreescu or Giorgi to fly to London just to pull out and pick up a cheque.
But even if they don't physically come to London to collect their pay packet, they can still leave it as late as possible before finally deciding to withdraw - they wouldn't care about denying someone if they genuinely thought there was a chance they could compete. The players would need to withdraw before qualifying started next Tuesday for it to affect things, or else it will be lucky losers opening up in the main draw and the likes of Jorovic would have to start the qualifying process. I just don't see 3 withdrawals before then, but I guess we'll soon find out.
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post #90 of 158 (permalink) Old Jun 18th, 2019, 09:38 AM
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Re: Wimbledon wildcard chat

When are they announced?
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