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post #1 of 295 (permalink) Old May 22nd, 2018, 09:50 PM Thread Starter
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Grass summer wildcard speculation

W/C 4th June
Surbiton Trophy
4 available
Last year - Boulter, Dart, Dunne, Taylor = WCs
6 QWCs


W/C 11th June
Nottingham Open
3 available
Last year - Moore, Watson, Robson = WCs
Deigman, Christie, Silva +1, = QWC

Manchester Trophy
4 available
Last year - Swan, Appleton, Boulter = WCs


W/C 18th June
Birmingham Classic
2 available
Last year - Broady, Watson = WCs
Appleton, Burrage, Murray, Swan = QWCs

Ilkley Trophy
4 available
Last year - Dart, Robson, Christie, Taylor = WCs
6 QWCs

Wildcard playoff (21st and 22nd)


W/C 25th June
Eastbourne International
2 available
Last year - Watson, Broady = WCs
Taylor, Dart, Dunne, Swan = QWCs

Southsea Trophy
2 available
Last year - Boulter, Robson

Wimbledon qualifying
8 available
Last year - Taylor, Dunne, Silva (PO), Dart, Swan, Christie, Lumsden (PO) = WCs


W/C 2nd July
Wimbledon
8 available
Last year - Boulter, Robson, Watson, Broady = WCs
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post #2 of 295 (permalink) Old May 22nd, 2018, 09:58 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

It'll be interesting to see how the WC picks go for the whole grass season, not just Wimbledon. It's also interesting looking back and seeing who were the main beneficiaries last year.

Obviously a lot will depend on how strong some of the WTA and ITF fields end up as this time yesterday, Boulter would have required a WC for Surbiton, whereas now she won't. Watson, Broady, Boulter and Robson seemed to come out best last year whereas Watson's ranking is a bit higher this year so that should free up some for others, probably mainly Taylor. Can't see Robson getting as many as last year either, so Dart, Swan and Dunne will likely be mainly competing for those.
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post #3 of 295 (permalink) Old May 23rd, 2018, 07:29 AM
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

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Originally Posted by Paullow View Post
It'll be interesting to see how the WC picks go for the whole grass season, not just Wimbledon. It's also interesting looking back and seeing who were the main beneficiaries last year.

Obviously a lot will depend on how strong some of the WTA and ITF fields end up as this time yesterday, Boulter would have required a WC for Surbiton, whereas now she won't. Watson, Broady, Boulter and Robson seemed to come out best last year whereas Watson's ranking is a bit higher this year so that should free up some for others, probably mainly Taylor. Can't see Robson getting as many as last year either, so Dart, Swan and Dunne will likely be mainly competing for those.
I think Watson's ranking will only get her into Surbiton and Nottingham. Birmingham and Eastbourne are so strong. So I think she will get MDWCs for those two tournaments.

Doesn't Nottingham have only two free WCs, plus two top 20s, unless the top 20s aren't used, in which case they get an additional free one (as last year)?

The week of Wimby qualies, Eastbourne and Southsea is a puzzzler:

If I understand the new rules correctly, no-one in Wimby qualies can get WCs into Southsea or Eastbourne, so those will go to British or foreign players in the Wimby main draw (by right or by WC), and (probably) British players without even a Wimby QWC if there are any left over.

That's a probable scenario - if Watson gets a MDWC to Eastbourne, that leaves 7 others that week: 1 more Eastbourne MDWC, 4 into Qs, 2 into Southsea. But it's unlikely there will be 7 additional Brits below Watson in the Wimby main draw. Suppose there were 5 Wimby MDWCs given to Brits, and those 5 also received some type of WC this week. To whom do you give the remaining 2? Promising teenagers not yet warranting a Wimby QWC (Emma?)? Runners-up in the Wimby QWC play-offs?
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post #4 of 295 (permalink) Old May 23rd, 2018, 08:50 AM
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

I have included last year's cuts as a guide to relative strengths of the events. Obviously this year won't be the same, but it might be vaguely similar?

W/C 4th June
Surbiton Trophy: Last year's MD cut was 244
4 MDWCs, 6 QWCs

Watson, Broady and Boulter are MD direct entry.

My guess: More withdrawals will occur, and Gabi will also get in by right. Dart, Dunne, Swan and Robson will be the first choices for MDWCs. If even more withdrawals occur and some of those get in by right, the WCs will go to lower-ranked players. Fran Jones and Maia Lumsden were alternates on the entry list here, but have pulled out, so I don't know if they have other plans. If available, they'd be on the list as possible MDWCs, along with Moore and Burrage. The QWCs could go almost anywhere, as some of the higher-ranked of the lesser players will probably ultimately make the Q-draw by right.

W/C 11th June
Nottingham Open: Last year's MD cut was 107, QD cut was 565
2 or 3 MDWCs, 4 QWC

Manchester Trophy: Last year's MD cut was 321
4 MDWCs, 6 QWC

Watson is MD DE to Nottingham, Naomi will probably play Manc.

My guess: The big question is, who will get the 2 or 3 Nottingham MDWCs, as Brits down to Robson may be ranked high enough to choose between Nottingham Q-draw and Manc main draw as direct entrants, so lower-ranked and younger players will get some chances. My guess is Boulter and Taylor for Notts MDWCs if there are two. Robson was a doubles finalist here last year, so if there is a third, maybe she might sneak in, unless someone else had a stunning week in Surbiton.

W/C 18th June
Birmingham Classic: Last year's MD cut was 97, QD cut was 384 (it started with a great list, then there was a deluge of withdrawals, IIRC).
2 MDWC, 4QWC

Ilkley Trophy: Last year's MD cut was 137
4 MDWC 6 QWC

Wildcard playoff (21st and 22nd)

I think they will go with the obvious duo of Watson and Broady for Brum MDWCs, unless there are withdrawals and Hev gets in by right, in which case, they will either give a MDWC to one of the next six who didn't get a MDWC in Notts, or to whoever has had the best results so far.

Such a high cut in Ilkley last year. If it is this strong again, WCs will be needed by just about everyone, but some might prefer to chance it in Brum qualies.

W/C 25th June
Eastbourne International: Last year's MD cut was 58, QD cut was 134
2 MDWCs, 4 QWCs

Southsea Trophy: Last year's MD cut was 111
2 MDWC (16 draw, no Qs)

Wimbledon qualifying
8 QWC (but may not all be British)

My guess: Hev again for MDWC to Eastbourne, unless she has failed utterly miserably in the first 3 tournaments (quite possible) and other players have excelled. Again, I think the second will go to a second tier player who has not yet received a MDWC for Notts or Brum, unless someone has had some stunning results in the first three weeks. Robson and Lumsden with Wimby QWCs. Wimbledon MDWC recipients will all get something this week, either to Southsea or to Eastbourne Qs. Which means that missing out on a MDWC at Wimby will be a double blow.

W/C 2nd July
Wimbledon
8 MDWC (but won't all be British)

How many will they give to Brits, and who is going to miss out?! It's the first time that I can remember having more deserving candidates than probable WCs available. Wimby WCs have been discussed to death elsewhere, so not much to add here, until we see how results from earlier tournaments pan out.
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post #5 of 295 (permalink) Old May 23rd, 2018, 09:16 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

Quote:
Originally Posted by pesto View Post
I have included last year's cuts as a guide to relative strengths of the events. Obviously this year won't be the same, but it might be vaguely similar?

W/C 4th June
Surbiton Trophy: Last year's MD cut was 244
4 MDWCs, 6 QWCs

Watson, Broady and Boulter are MD direct entry.

My guess: More withdrawals will occur, and Gabi will also get in by right. Dart, Dunne, Swan and Robson will be the first choices for MDWCs. If even more withdrawals occur and some of those get in by right, the WCs will go to lower-ranked players. Fran Jones and Maia Lumsden were alternates on the entry list here, but have pulled out, so I don't know if they have other plans. If available, they'd be on the list as possible MDWCs, along with Moore and Burrage. The QWCs could go almost anywhere, as some of the higher-ranked of the lesser players will probably ultimately make the Q-draw by right.

Yeah hopefully it gets own to at least Gabi with extended RG runs and doubles - if any of those get into the 2nd week then they will withdraw and as you say, the MDWCs here would then pick themselves. Maia is MD in a Portugal 25k and Fran is currently on the second on the qual list there.

W/C 11th June
Nottingham Open: Last year's MD cut was 107, QD cut was 565
2 or 3 MDWCs, 4 QWC

Manchester Trophy: Last year's MD cut was 321
4 MDWCs, 6 QWC

Watson is MD DE to Nottingham, Naomi will probably play Manc.

My guess: The big question is, who will get the 2 or 3 Nottingham MDWCs, as Brits down to Robson may be ranked high enough to choose between Nottingham Q-draw and Manc main draw as direct entrants, so lower-ranked and younger players will get some chances. My guess is Boulter and Taylor for Notts MDWCs if there are two. Robson was a doubles finalist here last year, so if there is a third, maybe she might sneak in, unless someone else had a stunning week in Surbiton.

Yeah, Broady is on the posters for Manchester so would be stunned if she wasn't playing there - we'll find out this time tomorrow when the early entries are out. I'd think KB and GT as well, they are generally the best places, played Fed Cup and bit of a home event for KB. Will be interesting to see, assuming that's the case, if Swan and Dunne would rather get a WC (if needed) into Manchester or play quallies at Notts (prob via a QWC).

W/C 18th June
Birmingham Classic: Last year's MD cut was 97, QD cut was 384 (it started with a great list, then there was a deluge of withdrawals, IIRC).
2 MDWC, 4QWC

Ilkley Trophy: Last year's MD cut was 137
4 MDWC 6 QWC

Wildcard playoff (21st and 22nd)

I think they will go with the obvious duo of Watson and Broady for Brum MDWCs, unless there are withdrawals and Hev gets in by right, in which case, they will either give a MDWC to one of the next six who didn't get a MDWC in Notts, or to whoever has had the best results so far.

Such a high cut in Ilkley last year. If it is this strong again, WCs will be needed by just about everyone, but some might prefer to chance it in Brum qualies.

Yeah, as above it will be interesting to see if those 170-250 prefer direct entry into a 100k or try and qualify for a 500k, I think I'd prefer the former if I was them. I'm also going to Ilkley so hope that there are a few of the best prospects going there and with respect, not just those ranked 400-700 and not even young.

I guess there could be QWCs on the line here as if someone has a shock good run they may avoid the playoff an get a QWC. I assume you could enter the likes of Ikley and if out early and don't receive a QWC, then you could still enter the WC playoff later that week?


W/C 25th June
Eastbourne International: Last year's MD cut was 58, QD cut was 134
2 MDWCs, 4 QWCs

Southsea Trophy: Last year's MD cut was 111
2 MDWC (16 draw, no Qs)

Wimbledon qualifying
8 QWC (but may not all be British)

My guess: Hev again for MDWC to Eastbourne, unless she has failed utterly miserably in the first 3 tournaments (quite possible) and other players have excelled. Again, I think the second will go to a second tier player who has not yet received a MDWC for Notts or Brum, unless someone has had some stunning results in the first three weeks. Robson and Lumsden with Wimby QWCs. Wimbledon MDWC recipients will all get something this week, either to Southsea or to Eastbourne Qs. Which means that missing out on a MDWC at Wimby will be a double blow.

Hopefully 6 Wimby MDWCs are given out to Brits and then that pretty much solves the 7 issue and they could even give to 7th to a random Brit or perhaps to someone who would usually have been considered for a Wimbledon WC but will miss out due to the home player resurgence.

W/C 2nd July
Wimbledon
8 MDWC (but won't all be British)

How many will they give to Brits, and who is going to miss out?! It's the first time that I can remember having more deserving candidates than probable WCs available. Wimby WCs have been discussed to death elsewhere, so not much to add here, until we see how results from earlier tournaments pan out.
Good post. Gave a few of my own thoughts within your points and it will be very interesting to see how the ITF entry lists materialise and then how all the decisions pan out. Crazy how it's just over 2 weeks to the start of the proper grass season (and the French just around the corner), the year has flown by.
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post #6 of 295 (permalink) Old May 28th, 2018, 07:49 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

Gabi pulled out of Manchester today (but still on for Surbiton) so that to me suggests she is on for one of the WCs at Nottingham as expected.
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post #7 of 295 (permalink) Old Jun 5th, 2018, 12:32 AM
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

Katie Swan pulled out of Manc too, but Katie Boulter is still on the list, so by your reckoning...

It's a very busy week for British WC choices next week. With Hev and Naomi already well-catered for, the possibility of a 3rd MDWC at Nottingham (as last year), the second tier likely to make MD Manc by right, and a whole load of MDWCs for Manc, and QWCs for both Nottingham and Manc to be distributed.

Like this week in Surbiton, it seems probable that all the Brits within the top 700 will make Manc Qs by right, and I guess many of them will be hoping for an upgrade of some sort.
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post #8 of 295 (permalink) Old Jun 6th, 2018, 08:34 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

Hmm, hopefully Stosur getting one for Nottingham is not a sign of things to come. Could have easily given one to Swan, Boulter and Taylor like pretty much every other nation would have.
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post #9 of 295 (permalink) Old Jun 6th, 2018, 08:59 PM
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paullow View Post
Hmm, hopefully Stosur getting one for Nottingham is not a sign of things to come. Could have easily given one to Swan, Boulter and Taylor like pretty much every other nation would have.
I don't think they could. I think if a top 20 / slam winner etc requests one, they have priority.

From the WTA rule book:

For International Tournaments, the WTA can use a Top 20
Wild Card to automatically fill any open Top 10 Player spots
with players on the Top 10 Next-In List. If not used by the
WTA, the Tournament must award a Top 20 Wild Card to
any Top 20 Player, past Grand Slam singles champion, past
WTA Finals singles champion, past Premier Mandatory tournament
singles champion, and/or former WTA No. 1 ranked
singles player requesting one, provided that it is requested
by the player prior to the Qualifying Freeze Deadline


If there are no eligible players requesting a Top 20 Wild
Card, the Tournament can award one Top 20 Wild Card
to any player as per the rules in this Section 4, and the
second Top 20 Wild Card will revert to the next player
waiting to get into the draw.


So Nottingham only has a third wild card to use for a home player if no top player requests one.
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post #10 of 295 (permalink) Old Jun 6th, 2018, 09:08 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

Quote:
Originally Posted by pesto View Post
I don't think they could. I think if a top 20 / slam winner etc requests one, they have priority.

From the WTA rule book:

For International Tournaments, the WTA can use a Top 20
Wild Card to automatically fill any open Top 10 Player spots
with players on the Top 10 Next-In List. If not used by the
WTA, the Tournament must award a Top 20 Wild Card to
any Top 20 Player, past Grand Slam singles champion, past
WTA Finals singles champion, past Premier Mandatory tournament
singles champion, and/or former WTA No. 1 ranked
singles player requesting one, provided that it is requested
by the player prior to the Qualifying Freeze Deadline


If there are no eligible players requesting a Top 20 Wild
Card, the Tournament can award one Top 20 Wild Card
to any player as per the rules in this Section 4, and the
second Top 20 Wild Card will revert to the next player
waiting to get into the draw.


So Nottingham only has a third wild card to use for a home player if no top player requests one.
Ah, that's better, didn't realise Sam counted as a 'top player' and thought it was just actually current top 20 players. I see Katie B has now joined Taylor and Swan in pulling out of Manchester so presumably they are all expecting a MDWC.
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post #11 of 295 (permalink) Old Jun 6th, 2018, 09:08 PM
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

Jo is a PM Champ. Maybe if her ranking continues to go south, she could get in via that route next year.
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post #12 of 295 (permalink) Old Jun 6th, 2018, 09:11 PM
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paullow View Post
Ah, that's better, didn't realise Sam counted as a 'top player' and thought it was just actually current top 20 players. I see Katie B has now joined Taylor and Swan in pulling out of Manchester so presumably they are all expecting a MDWC.
Or they prefer to play a WTA qualie tournament than an ITF MD.

The wildcard rules are confusingly verbose.
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post #13 of 295 (permalink) Old Jun 6th, 2018, 09:24 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

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Or they prefer to play a WTA qualie tournament than an ITF MD.

The wildcard rules are confusingly verbose.
Yeah, maybe. It was only 2 rounds last year. Still think I'd rather play the 100k personally as opponent strength will be similar in that as it is in quallies and like Dunne this week, if you can get a WC in the first round (4/32 chance) then you're potentially well on your way to some decent points and toward the latter stages you're very likely to meet those Wimbledon calibre players anyway.

We'll see how it pans out in the coming days, but to me, looks like it will be Stosur (as top 20) plus those 3 Brits with WCs into Nottingham. I suppose if a Schiavone, Jankovic, Vesnina etc (there's a lot that meet the top 20 criteria with the PM bit) did come in late, then one of the 3 Brits could possibly take up a late Manc WC if they preferred that (although that would be a bit of a waste of one).
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post #14 of 295 (permalink) Old Jun 6th, 2018, 09:44 PM
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paullow View Post
We'll see how it pans out in the coming days, but to me, looks like it will be Stosur (as top 20) plus those 3 Brits with WCs into Nottingham.
No, I think there are only 2 wildcards available to home players once 1 top player WC has been awarded. The other either goes "next in" or to another top player.

Confusing innit?


Taylor and Swan are in spiceboy's Nottingham qualie list without the need for a WC.

Boulter is not on that list, so unless she has picked up an injury, I think if she has withdrawn from Manc, it is for a MDWC in Nottingham. She is local, and the highest ranked, and won a $60K recently, so it'd be a shame for her not to get one.

I would have thought Gabi is the obvious second choice. She was picked for Fed Cup. She's higher-ranked than KS, she has not received a WTA MDWC before, and she's just notched up her first top-100 win, and backed that up in R2. And she's already won a grass title this year.

It'd be good for Swan not to need a WC this week, more leeway for giving her others later. She needed one for Surbiton, while the others were a bit higher-ranked, and were direct entrants.

But then again, who knows, Swan does seem to be an establishment fave.

I reckon all the others down to Dunne will be in Manc MD without a WC.

So, going into W3 Brum/Ilkley, it is probable that Broady, Dart and Dunne will not yet have needed wildcards for main draw entry.
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post #15 of 295 (permalink) Old Jun 6th, 2018, 09:50 PM
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

Quote:
Originally Posted by pesto View Post
No, I think there are only 2 wildcards available to home players once 1 top player WC has been awarded. The other either goes "next in" or to another top player.

Confusing innit?
I'm pretty certain there's 2 Top 20 WCs, and only 1 has been used. So if no one else asks for a WC, the other one can be used as a 3rd WC (if Sam hadn't asked for a WC we wouldn't get a 4th though, it would just be next in).
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