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post #286 of 314 (permalink) Old Jun 15th, 2019, 08:42 AM
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

Maybe they think Emma needs to re-find her rhythm after her break for studying, and with age-eligibility restrictions, is better off saving her allowance of senior events?

Or maybe they thought if she entered for senior events, she would focus on that, to the detriment of her studies?

Or if she would really like to do well at J-Wimbledon, maybe they think it better if she is as familiar as possible with her probable opponents there?

I do worry whether Katie S and / or Gabi might have injury niggles, and are avoiding playing every week. Maia being announced first as MDWC strengthens that fear - KS is surely better known, and more of a draw.
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post #287 of 314 (permalink) Old Jun 15th, 2019, 08:51 AM
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

Give it to Swan. She's the British Bouchard.
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post #288 of 314 (permalink) Old Jun 15th, 2019, 10:18 AM
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

But she seems such a nice girl.

She'll get one if fit, I'm sure.
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post #289 of 314 (permalink) Old Jun 15th, 2019, 10:21 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

Diyas quickly served out her carried over match with Wang Xiyu in Manchester. The 3 who were already in Wimbledon have all made the SFs - they are all top 100 and the top 3 seeds, but I'm still surprised they all made it - I'd imagine that would have been odds against, rather than odds on.

The other semi finalist is of course is Sam, who could get the most unlikeliest of MDWCs, coming from absolutely nowhere, but she would still have to get back to back top 100 wins, whoever reaches the final in the bottom half.

Rybakina is still active in Rosmalen, but has a very tough semi final with Bertens today - I'd like to see Sam win Manchester, but I'd be equally as happy for Rybakina to take that title and ask some serious questions.
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post #290 of 314 (permalink) Old Jun 15th, 2019, 10:49 AM
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

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But she seems such a nice girl.

She'll get one if fit, I'm sure.
She's also one of our Fed Cup heroines, albeit in dead rubbers in the zonal matches and non-playing in the playoff.
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post #291 of 314 (permalink) Old Jun 15th, 2019, 04:45 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

Sam lost pretty comfortably in the end 3-6 0-6. I don't think you can award a MDWC on the back of reaching the semi final when you consider Bouzkova was the only top 200 win, and Broady, Muhammed and Kostic is very much W25 level, and even the Bouzkova win, which was incredible, was indoors, so that kind of defeats the object as well. She really needed to win it or at least get to the final to justify it IMO, and the score line doesn't really help either, 4-6 6-3 7-5 or equivalent might have strengthened her case.

Still a superb week for her though considering she was ranked 466 coming into this and even those 'W25' type wins were all still higher ranked players, so she has done very well and I think should now be in QWC contention.

Rybakina also lost, as expected to Bertens, 4-6 4-6, in her semi final, so she probably hasn't done enough to really turn heads and make it impossible not to include her, but if the committee wanted to reward a player (regardless of nationality) these past 2 weeks, rather than simply give it next in, then I think she should be the front runner.

I guess they'll announce (assuming all fit) Watson, Boulter, Swiatek, Dart, Swan and probably Katy, and hold 2 back, one for a potential Ilkley winner and 1 elsewhere, whether that be a Brit like Naiktha or Maia, an overseas performance reward like Rybakina, someone who does well at either Birmingham or Mallorca, or simply next in.

That's the 4 grass events now - Surbiton, Manchester, 's-Hertogenbosch and Nottingham, where all 8 finalists have already qualified for Wimbledon, so no automatic picks - it's just a shame there's not currently more proper worthy Brits in and around the top 200 to take proper advantage of it. Naiktha could really do with a really good result or performance, and she has made a fast start today.
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post #292 of 314 (permalink) Old Jun 15th, 2019, 10:52 PM
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

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.

I guess they'll announce (assuming all fit) Watson, Boulter, Swiatek, Dart, Swan and probably Katy, and hold 2 back, one for a potential Ilkley winner and 1 elsewhere, whether that be a Brit like Naiktha or Maia, an overseas performance reward like Rybakina, someone who does well at either Birmingham or Mallorca, or simply next in.

.

I agree with the top 5 . The only question is how the WC committee feels about Bains , we will see on Wednesday.




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post #293 of 314 (permalink) Old Jun 16th, 2019, 02:04 AM
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

I certainly don't think that's anywhere near enough for a Wimby MDWC for Sam.

20-year-old Harriet Dart reached the semis in Surbiton in 2017, ranked 299 at the time and rising to around 280, and didn't get one, even though there were two unused. Sam has far less claim.

I do think it puts her in contention for a QWC. Before this week, I don't think she was in line for that.

I also think Broady was doubtful for even a QWC, and this week will have helped her.

And of course, Fran Jones has had another great week, even though she has shunned grass.

I don't see any sign that Naiktha will not be treated like any other British player with a similar resume.

And I don't think a semifinal in an overseas International tournament that does not take her within the top 100 will cut the mustard for Rybakina. The committee doesn't mind not filling the WC allocation.

My only caveat there, is that every year since 2008 (where my spreadsheet goes back to!), they have awarded at least 2 (and up to 5) wildcards to international players. They will probably hold one for the Ilkley winner, but if not needed there, then I don't know.
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post #294 of 314 (permalink) Old Jun 16th, 2019, 08:54 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

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I certainly don't think that's anywhere near enough for a Wimby MDWC for Sam.

20-year-old Harriet Dart reached the semis in Surbiton in 2017, ranked 299 at the time and rising to around 280, and didn't get one, even though there were two unused. Sam has far less claim.

I do think it puts her in contention for a QWC. Before this week, I don't think she was in line for that.

I also think Broady was doubtful for even a QWC, and this week will have helped her.

And of course, Fran Jones has had another great week, even though she has shunned grass.

I don't see any sign that Naiktha will not be treated like any other British player with a similar resume.

And I don't think a semifinal in an overseas International tournament that does not take her within the top 100 will cut the mustard for Rybakina. The committee doesn't mind not filling the WC allocation.

My only caveat there, is that every year since 2008 (where my spreadsheet goes back to!), they have awarded at least 2 (and up to 5) wildcards to international players. They will probably hold one for the Ilkley winner, but if not needed there, then I don't know.
Yeah, I guess Rybakina was more in hope than expectation, as had it have been someone like Minnen or Vikhylantseva who reached the SF instead, then I wouldn't really be championing it.

I do think the 5 which seem generally acknowledged by most will be locks (Swiatek and the 4 FC team), plus a potential Ilkley winner, and after that it's very subjective. Not too long to find out, and not too many more opportunities to make any further impact.
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post #295 of 314 (permalink) Old Jun 16th, 2019, 10:23 PM
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

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Give it to Swan. She's the British Bouchard.
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post #296 of 314 (permalink) Old Jun 17th, 2019, 06:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pesto View Post
Maybe they think Emma needs to re-find her rhythm after her break for studying, and with age-eligibility restrictions, is better off saving her allowance of senior events?

Or maybe they thought if she entered for senior events, she would focus on that, to the detriment of her studies?

Or if she would really like to do well at J-Wimbledon, maybe they think it better if she is as familiar as possible with her probable opponents there?

I do worry whether Katie S and / or Gabi might have injury niggles, and are avoiding playing every week. Maia being announced first as MDWC strengthens that fear - KS is surely better known, and more of a draw.
If I was reading between the lines I think I'd surmise that Emma's short term goal is to have a proper crack at Junior Wimbledon. And maybe given she's had three months off they thought playing the Junior preps will be a better strategy than getting involved in Wimbledon Qualies. If you play qualies I think you're ruled out of Roehampton?
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post #297 of 314 (permalink) Old Jun 18th, 2019, 06:58 PM
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

Wild card play-off draws: https://lta.tournamentsoftware.com/s...4-546F6FADB2D4 (empty at the moment, of course)
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post #298 of 314 (permalink) Old Jun 19th, 2019, 09:13 AM
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

Wild card are out

Dart
Swan
Swiatek
Watson

So Katie B is still not ready


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post #299 of 314 (permalink) Old Jun 19th, 2019, 09:29 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

That's annoyed me. Bains, Dunne and Lumsden certainly hadn't done enough to be considered locks, but they're effectively only using 2 MDWCs (Swan and Dart) with 5 or 6 going next in depending on what happens in Ilkley. Lazy as fuck. Could have easily given one to someone like Rybakina or taken a punt on Raducanu if she's down for qualifying. Worse than I was expecting, but I guess, not too surprised. I feared they'd just go next in.
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post #300 of 314 (permalink) Old Jun 19th, 2019, 10:27 AM
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Re: Grass summer wildcard speculation

It explains why they didn't use the fourth MDWC in Ilkley. Broady and Murray need to play play-off.

I feel that Murray has been particularly hard-done by. She hasn't had any wildcards this year - she was in the Manc qualie draw by right.

I seem to recall her being snubbed before - maybe when she did well in Ilkley and couldn't make play-offs, and didn't get an upgrade to QWC.
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