UPDATE | Battle in 2 for WTA World #1 @ Rogers Cup (Toronto). Chart + explanations - TennisForum.com
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post #1 of 57 (permalink) Old Jul 17th, 2019, 01:25 PM Thread Starter
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Post UPDATE | Battle in 2 for WTA World #1 @ Rogers Cup (Toronto). Chart + explanations

UPDATE after R2, with explanations in writing, if the chart is or was confusing:

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post #2 of 57 (permalink) Old Jul 17th, 2019, 01:27 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Tight battle in 3 for WTA World #1 @ Rogers Cup (Toronto). Chart with scenarios

Reserved post.
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post #3 of 57 (permalink) Old Jul 17th, 2019, 01:38 PM
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Re: Tight battle in 3 for WTA World #1 @ Rogers Cup (Toronto). Chart with scenarios

Osaka is a mess and her ranking will fall as soon as her US Open points come off. Barty will be safe at number 1 until the US Open, then Halep will pass her.
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post #4 of 57 (permalink) Old Jul 17th, 2019, 01:55 PM
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Re: Tight battle in 3 for WTA World #1 @ Rogers Cup (Toronto). Chart with scenarios

It looks like there will be a battle for top seed in NYC.
No new contenders for #1 now. Kvitova, Bertens have to stay close, maybe they'll get it in NY or asia

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post #5 of 57 (permalink) Old Jul 17th, 2019, 05:20 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Tight battle in 3 for WTA World #1 @ Rogers Cup (Toronto). Chart with scenarios

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Osaka is a mess and her ranking will fall as soon as her US Open points come off. Barty will be safe at number 1 until the US Open, then Halep will pass her.
Well, if you looked closely at the chart, Osaka is very very close to Barty and if we take off the Cincy points as well, she can regain the #1 spot even with zero wins until the US Open, in theory.

I'm just saying this from a mathematical perspective, not game-wise.
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post #6 of 57 (permalink) Old Jul 17th, 2019, 05:21 PM
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Re: Tight battle in 3 for WTA World #1 @ Rogers Cup (Toronto). Chart with scenarios

Not Pliskova becoming #1 again... and right around the time when we thought Petra might finally snatch it
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post #7 of 57 (permalink) Old Jul 17th, 2019, 05:33 PM
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Re: Tight battle in 3 for WTA World #1 @ Rogers Cup (Toronto). Chart with scenarios

So basically to keep her number 1 spot Barty has to make it at least as far as Osaka. Now as far as Pliskova goes, that's a bit more complicated but also tougher on Karolina. She needs to at least make the semifinals, which won't be easy in that draw, and that's assuming Barty loses early, which is highly unlikely (she made semifinals here last year, losing to eventual champion Halep).

Yeah, I too think she is safe until the USO (Halep is defending way too many points between Canada and Cincinnati, Osaka is concentrating on her USO defense and Pliskova is dangerous, but also quite fragile under the pressure of playing to get to number 1). After that, who knows, if it's anyone of the top 3 in the Race winning (her, Pliskova, Halep) then that will most certainly be it and probably also it for the Race and YE based on how things have gone in the past.
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post #8 of 57 (permalink) Old Jul 17th, 2019, 08:20 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Tight battle in 3 for WTA World #1 @ Rogers Cup (Toronto). Chart with scenarios

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So basically to keep her number 1 spot Barty has to make it at least as far as Osaka. Now as far as Pliskova goes, that's a bit more complicated but also tougher on Karolina. She needs to at least make the semifinals, which won't be easy in that draw, and that's assuming Barty loses early, which is highly unlikely (she made semifinals here last year, losing to eventual champion Halep).

Yeah, I too think she is safe until the USO (Halep is defending way too many points between Canada and Cincinnati, Osaka is concentrating on her USO defense and Pliskova is dangerous, but also quite fragile under the pressure of playing to get to number 1). After that, who knows, if it's anyone of the top 3 in the Race winning (her, Pliskova, Halep) then that will most certainly be it and probably also it for the Race and YE based on how things have gone in the past.
Mostly correct. If Barty and Osaka both make the final, the winner will be #1.

Pliskova has very slim chances with a SF. Barty would have to lose in her first match (R2) and Osaka to not make the QF. If she wins the whole thing she'll be #1 again.

Halep has no chance here and like 0.01% chances for Cincy, but starting with USO she defends absolutely nothing.
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post #9 of 57 (permalink) Old Jul 21st, 2019, 10:09 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Tight battle in 3 for WTA World #1 @ Rogers Cup (Toronto). Chart with scenarios

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post #10 of 57 (permalink) Old Jul 21st, 2019, 10:53 AM
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Not Pliskova becoming #1 again... and right around the time when we thought Petra might finally snatch it
Yep one time was enough
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post #11 of 57 (permalink) Old Jul 21st, 2019, 04:04 PM
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Re: Tight battle in 3 for WTA World #1 @ Rogers Cup (Toronto). Chart with scenarios

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She needs to at least make the semifinals, which won't be easy in that draw,
Which draw are you referring to?
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post #12 of 57 (permalink) Old Jul 21st, 2019, 04:36 PM
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Re: Tight battle in 3 for WTA World #1 @ Rogers Cup (Toronto). Chart with scenarios

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Which draw are you referring to?
The main draw, I know we don't have the actual draw yet, but it's a P5 and it will have a very competitive draw (unless it completely falls apart in her section, which is always a possibility). I guess I could have used a better word for that, lineup of players maybe instead of draw.
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post #13 of 57 (permalink) Old Jul 21st, 2019, 04:53 PM
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Re: Tight battle in 3 for WTA World #1 @ Rogers Cup (Toronto). Chart with scenarios

I am not sure Pliskova can do it, normally Barty is the favourite to keep it. Halep needs great results at the end of this season to surpass Barty's advantage. Barty also doesn't need to defend huge.

I just hope we will finally see first version of Halep in terms of American ending circuit. The one that beat Kvitova in the New Haven final.

Normally with Pliskova solid on the American hardcourt, we could have a very competitive stint including the US Open.

Wondering about Osaka, because Bajin is clearly a loss.
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post #14 of 57 (permalink) Old Jul 21st, 2019, 11:41 PM
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Tight battle in 3 for WTA World #1 @ Rogers Cup (Toronto). Chart with scenarios

I just realized the ATP #1 has DOUBLE the number of points as WTA #1. 12,000 vs 6,000.

ATP #s 4 - 10 all have LESS points than WTA players at the same rank.

That is crazy and certainly shows the drastic difference between the two tours right now!!!


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post #15 of 57 (permalink) Old Jul 22nd, 2019, 08:07 AM
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Re: Tight battle in 3 for WTA World #1 @ Rogers Cup (Toronto). Chart with scenarios

Let Osaka has her last hurrah. As much as I feel for her, I don't believe she will ever be #1 again after USO points fall off.
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