How important is it that the world #1 is also favorite for Wimbledon title? - TennisForum.com
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post #1 of 48 (permalink) Old Jun 25th, 2019, 07:22 AM Thread Starter
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How important is it that the world #1 is also favorite for Wimbledon title?

This didn't happen for a long time: the current world #1 Ashley Barty is also the bookmakers favorite for the Wimbledon title.

Even Osaka won back-to-back Grand-Slam-titles she hasn't been the favorite for any big tournament she entered after her US Open title.

Serena has been the favorite for most of the tournaments she played, even though she didn't win any title since her comeback.
Anyway, that's only proof of how weak the tour is these days. Serena is 2nd favorite after Barty to win the title. And I totally agree with that, especially because Kvitova is injured.
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post #2 of 48 (permalink) Old Jun 25th, 2019, 07:25 AM Thread Starter
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Re: How important is it that the world #1 is also favorite for Wimbledon title?

Wimbledon favorites:

6.0 Barty
7.5 S. Williams
13.0 Kvitova
13.1 Osaka
15.0 Ka. Pliskova
15.1 Kerber
19.0 Konta
21.0 Halep
26.0 Keys
26.1 Stephens
29.2 Bencic
29.3 Muguruza
34.0 Bertens
34.5 Anisimova
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post #3 of 48 (permalink) Old Jun 25th, 2019, 07:39 AM
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Re: How important is it that the world #1 is also favorite for Wimbledon title?

6.0 is very very low odds for a tournament favourite. I guess it's nice that the #1 is also the favourite but the field is a much bigger favourite vs Barty which is still disappointing for a tournament favourite.

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post #4 of 48 (permalink) Old Jun 25th, 2019, 07:39 AM
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I want naomi to swing freely now as she lost the ranking and play like she has nothing to lose. And make a good run to second week. That will be good enough.
Though barty can win it as she is natural grass player and high on confidence right now. But it will be amazing if any of two wins it. New gen cmng fast .
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post #5 of 48 (permalink) Old Jun 25th, 2019, 07:45 AM
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Re: How important is it that the world #1 is also favorite for Wimbledon title?

Barty might get an easy first week draw but she’s bound to collide with a big name or a player she has a negative h2h sooner or later?

We still don't know how she will cope mentally if someone like Serena screams at her.

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post #6 of 48 (permalink) Old Jun 25th, 2019, 09:25 AM
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Re: How important is it that the world #1 is also favorite for Wimbledon title?

Interesting point, let's see since January 2017:

- AO 2017 favorite was Kerber (or Serena, can't remember exactly), was number 1, didn't win; (so one already, unless it was Serena, in which case nada)

- FO 2017 favorite was Halep, wasn't number 1, didn't win;

- WIM 2017 favorite was... I have no clue, but I know it wasn't the current number 1 at the time (Pliskova);

- USO 2017 favorite was... also can't recall right now, but at the time Muguruza was number 1, so maybe she could have been the favorite, yeah, I think she might have been the favorite after just winning Cincinnati; (so there you have, the second one already, also didn't win)

- AO 2018 favorite was... Wozniacki, Kerber or Halep, one of these three, I'm very foggy as far as the lead-up to this Slam;

- FO 2018 favorite was Halep, also world number 1 at the time, and she did win, one of the few times in the last couple of years that the favorite ends up winning; (so second or third time world number 1 enters a slam as favorite)

- Wimbledon 2018 was a split between Kvitova and Serena, and I think Kvitova might have come out on top eventually, neither was number 1;

- USO 2018 was Serena until Halep made back to back finals in Montreal (winning) and Cincinnati, which turned the odds in her favor (she was the bookie favorite just before the draw by like a hair), but we know how that went, also second slam in a row where the favorite is eliminated early; (and another number 1 as favorite for a slam, don't need to count them anymore, it's clear it happens quite often)

- AO 2019 was Serena, not number 1, didn't win;

- FO 2019 was Halep, not number 1, didn't win.

That's three or four instances of the world number 1 being also the favorite in the previous 10 slams, so having Barty as the favorite at Wimbledon gets us that much closer to 50%. If she can be the favorite for the USO too as the world number 1 then we'll be at 6 out of 12 slams where the number 1 favorite was also number 1, so pretty good, nothing quite like the days of Serena dominating the tour, but still okay. Now if only more favorites actually won Slams, then we might be on to something. The fact we've only had that happen once or twice in 3 years is pretty ridiculous.

If anyone has access to older data for odds feel free to come in, maybe we can figure out those Slams I'm not so sure about (looking strictly for the odds before the official draw, since the draw muddies the water too much).

Why did I pick starting 2017? Well easy, before that Serena was the favorite like 90% of the time for any slam, so that data is pretty useless for what I was going for here.
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post #7 of 48 (permalink) Old Jun 25th, 2019, 09:28 AM Thread Starter
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Re: How important is it that the world #1 is also favorite for Wimbledon title?

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Originally Posted by Riskiick View Post
6.0 is very very low odds for a tournament favourite. I guess it's nice that the #1 is also the favourite but the field is a much bigger favourite vs Barty which is still disappointing for a tournament favourite.
That's true. Novak is at 2,4 this year and Nadal unsually has a 1,something odd at Roland Garros.
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post #8 of 48 (permalink) Old Jun 25th, 2019, 09:37 AM Thread Starter
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Re: How important is it that the world #1 is also favorite for Wimbledon title?

@AlexMA : Thanks!!

Does anyone remember the last time neither Federer nor Nadal or Djokovic haven't been the favorite at a Slam?

Was anybody alive at that time?
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post #9 of 48 (permalink) Old Jun 25th, 2019, 09:42 AM
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Re: How important is it that the world #1 is also favorite for Wimbledon title?

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That's true. Novak is at 2,4 this year and Nadal unsually has a 1,something odd at Roland Garros.
6 is usually the norm for the favorite in the WTA, the lowest I've seen that number go was this year before the FO, and it was a 4 for Halep (and that was after making the previous two finals over there), otherwise it's 5, 6 or 7 for the favorite, almost all the time. Serena was the only one I remember being under 2, and that was way back in 2015 when she was going for the calendar slam, I remember her being like 1.5 or something similar for the USO.

But yeah, no one is like Nadal and his 1.1-1.2, which is just absolutely ridiculous. Even in the ATP 2-4 is the usual norm unless you have a player who usually absolutely dominates that slam. Federer was under 2 for Wimbledon at least once, and I think Djokovic had that once before an AO, but that's it.
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post #10 of 48 (permalink) Old Jun 25th, 2019, 09:51 AM
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Re: How important is it that the world #1 is also favorite for Wimbledon title?

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@AlexMA : Thanks!!

Does anyone remember the last time neither Federer nor Nadal or Djokovic haven't been the favorite at a Slam?

Was anybody alive at that time?
I was, and thanks for making me feel even older than I am. I remember the days of Agassi and Pistol Pete (Pete Sampras) and I can tell you they never had the numbers that trio has today, as far as odds go. And in the women's game Steffi Graf was an absolute legend, she definitely had a couple under 2s. Serena was a lot less consistent in the first half of her career, it's the second half when she turned into the second coming of Graf. But if you put a gun to my head and force me to pick a women's tennis GOAT, in my book it has to be Graf, followed by Serena and then Evert. In the ATP the jury is still out, but right now I'd say Fed, Nadal and Djokovic, and I could totally see that turn into Djokovic, Nadal, Fed, or really any combination of those three. And that's the incredible part, that all three are playing at the same time. That just NEVER happens in any sport. the closest I can think of right now is Formula 1 with Hamilton (5 times Champion) and Vettel (4), which would have matched by now Schumacher's record (7) if not for the fact they are racing at the same time.

Two GOATS in a sport at the same time is ridiculous, three should be illegal! After those three retire the ATP will be in shambles for years.
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post #11 of 48 (permalink) Old Jun 25th, 2019, 10:20 AM
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Re: How important is it that the world #1 is also favorite for Wimbledon title?

How important is it that the world #1 is also favorite for Wimbledon title?

In the bigger scheme of things....it is extremely unimportant I'd say. Global warming is important. Getting rid of nationalist governments is important. Having the number one seed at Wimbledon also be the bookmakers favourite? Much less so.

Having said that, it is nice that Ash is getting the respect that she deserves and it is fitting that Ash is the bookmakers favourite as she is playing better tennis than anyone else right now.

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post #12 of 48 (permalink) Old Jun 25th, 2019, 10:39 AM
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Re: How important is it that the world #1 is also favorite for Wimbledon title?

It depends on the surface, ranking is secondary. For example, No.1 Pliskova would never be favorite at Roland Garros. Osaka can only play on hard courts. No.12 ranked player in the world Sevastova is priced 81.00 which is outside top 30 because she can't play on grass etc.

Odds of 5.00 (the lowest I see) for Barty just shows how weak era this is with Serena being a part-time player and not even being able to run anymore. Normally big favorites would be priced between 2 & 3, or even slightly below evens.
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post #13 of 48 (permalink) Old Jun 25th, 2019, 10:59 AM
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Lol whatever crumbs TF can get against Ash. She’s new to the top so obviously bookies aren’t going to put really high odds. And a recovering Serena is still second because she is the GOAT and has the best serve of all time, playing on grass. But whatever.
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post #14 of 48 (permalink) Old Jun 25th, 2019, 11:06 AM
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It depends on the surface, ranking is secondary. For example, No.1 Pliskova would never be favorite at Roland Garros. Osaka can only play on hard courts. No.12 ranked player in the world Sevastova is priced 81.00 which is outside top 30 because she can't play on grass etc.

Odds of 5.00 (the lowest I see) for Barty just shows how weak era this is with Serena being a part-time player and not even being able to run anymore. Normally big favorites would be priced between 2 & 3, or even slightly below evens.
Wasnt pliskova like top 5 at roland garros this year. Pliskova can play on any surface, her focus is the problem.
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post #15 of 48 (permalink) Old Jun 25th, 2019, 11:25 AM
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Re: How important is it that the world #1 is also favorite for Wimbledon title?

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Wasnt pliskova like top 5 at roland garros this year. Pliskova can play on any surface, her focus is the problem.
LOL. Her problem is lack of game outside of serve. She can't run and rally for hours.
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