Re: How important is it that the world #1 is also favorite for Wimbledon title?
Interesting point, let's see since January 2017:
- AO 2017 favorite was Kerber (or Serena, can't remember exactly), was number 1, didn't win; (so one already, unless it was Serena, in which case nada)
- FO 2017 favorite was Halep, wasn't number 1, didn't win;
- WIM 2017 favorite was... I have no clue, but I know it wasn't the current number 1 at the time (Pliskova);
- USO 2017 favorite was... also can't recall right now, but at the time Muguruza was number 1, so maybe she could have been the favorite, yeah, I think she might have been the favorite after just winning Cincinnati; (so there you have, the second one already, also didn't win)
- AO 2018 favorite was... Wozniacki, Kerber or Halep, one of these three, I'm very foggy as far as the lead-up to this Slam;
- FO 2018 favorite was Halep, also world number 1 at the time, and she did win, one of the few times in the last couple of years that the favorite ends up winning; (so second or third time world number 1 enters a slam as favorite)
- Wimbledon 2018 was a split between Kvitova and Serena, and I think Kvitova might have come out on top eventually, neither was number 1;
- USO 2018 was Serena until Halep made back to back finals in Montreal (winning) and Cincinnati, which turned the odds in her favor (she was the bookie favorite just before the draw by like a hair), but we know how that went, also second slam in a row where the favorite is eliminated early; (and another number 1 as favorite for a slam, don't need to count them anymore, it's clear it happens quite often)
- AO 2019 was Serena, not number 1, didn't win;
- FO 2019 was Halep, not number 1, didn't win.
That's three or four instances of the world number 1 being also the favorite in the previous 10 slams, so having Barty as the favorite at Wimbledon gets us that much closer to 50%. If she can be the favorite for the USO too as the world number 1 then we'll be at 6 out of 12 slams where the number 1 favorite was also number 1, so pretty good, nothing quite like the days of Serena dominating the tour, but still okay. Now if only more favorites actually won Slams, then we might be on to something. The fact we've only had that happen once or twice in 3 years is pretty ridiculous.
If anyone has access to older data for odds feel free to come in, maybe we can figure out those Slams I'm not so sure about (looking strictly for the odds before the official draw, since the draw muddies the water too much).
Why did I pick starting 2017? Well easy, before that Serena was the favorite like 90% of the time for any slam, so that data is pretty useless for what I was going for here.