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Old Feb 4th, 2003, 03:18 AM   #1
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Probability of winning Open Gaz de France

As swhon in more detail at http://www.sportpunter.com the following are the probability of winning and coming runner up respectively:

Serena Williams (USA) 48.9% 65.3%
Amelie Mauresmo (FRA) 15.3% 41.4%
Daniele Hantuchova (SVK) 7.1% 23.3%
Jelena Dokic (YUG) 4.9% 7.9%
Patty Schnyder (SUI) 4.5% 6.8%
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Old Feb 4th, 2003, 04:04 AM   #2
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shouldnt Serena be at 99.9876%?

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Old Feb 4th, 2003, 05:09 PM   #3
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LMAo @ mmcdonald. too funny
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Old Feb 4th, 2003, 05:15 PM   #4
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Naldo, whatever...
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Old Feb 6th, 2003, 01:05 AM   #5
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probabilities of winning after 1st round

As shown at http://www.sportpunter.com the following are the probs or winning and making the final respectively after round 1

Serena Williams (USA) 49.3% 66.6%
Amelie Mauresmo (FRA) 16.7% 42.7%
Daniele Hantuchova (SVK) 7.1% 20.8%
Eleni Daniilidou (GRE) 5.0% 10.8%
Elena Dementieva (RUS) 4.8% 16.1%
Jelena Dokic (YUG) 3.7% 7.2%
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Old Feb 6th, 2003, 01:47 AM   #6
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Serena Williams - Chances of winning:

99.999999999999294134820954947854561999487516919 %
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Old Feb 6th, 2003, 02:05 AM   #7
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Very good sign that you (or rather, your system) have Daniilidou higher than Dokic. Some would probably laugh at Dementieva having better odds than Dokic, but that's of course where the draw sets in.

Instinctively, I would grant around 70% to Serena Williams for winning the title, as opposed to the 48.8% you operate with. If we ran this tournament 10 times, I would expect her to win 7 times. That may even be modest.

If we go by last year's form, she wins more than 60% of the tournaments she enters. Considering this is a Tier II (fewer rounds, weaker field than her average tournament) her winning percentage should be even higher.

What am I missing that the computer puts emphasis on? I sincerely believe that an oddsmaker, who goes by your chance distribution, will be vulnerable to heavy betting on Serena.
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Old Feb 6th, 2003, 03:24 AM   #8
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Gus what's up with u???????????//
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Old Feb 6th, 2003, 04:03 AM   #9
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So... would that be like 2-1 odds that Serena wins the tournament? I wish Vegas had those odds... I'd put my life savings on it.
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Old Feb 6th, 2003, 10:55 AM   #10
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I think Hantuchova has more chance than Amelie to win, because shes been playing well lately while Amelie is just coming off injury.
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Old Feb 7th, 2003, 12:34 AM   #11
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probability of winning after round 2

The fact that serena, although she won the australian open, played a few tough 3 setters and was below her normal best. This is probably the main reason why her probability has come down to say evens.

Probs after round 2:
Serena Williams (USA) 47.4% 69.8%
Amelie Mauresmo (FRA) 23.1% 49.8%
Daniele Hantuchova (SVK) 9.4% 24.2%
Eleni Daniilidou (GRE) 7.0% 14.4%
Elena Dementieva (RUS) 6.5% 19.3%
Jelena Dokic (YUG) 4.2% 11.9%
Janette Husarova (SVK) 1.5% 3.8%
Magui Serna (ESP) 0.9% 6.8%
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