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Old Jan 25th, 2013, 04:44 PM   #1
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Best matches of the AO 2013 according to statistics

As always after a Grand Slam, discussions are ongoing to determine the best matches of the tournament. I thought that a look at the data provided by the AO could help bringing some insights on this.

Therefore, I have compiled the data from the official website concerning the winners and the unforced errors, which I could use in order to calculate the forced errors.

I did it for all the matches from the semifinals, quaterfinals, round of 16 and most matches played by the Top10 players and those who reached the last 16, and I added some matches that appeared of high quality (Wickmayer/Cepelova for example).

Statistically, a match will be of high quality if the winners and forced errors greatly exceed the UE. So I calculated the difference (shown in red). And to allow a comparison between matches of different length, I have divided the aforementioned difference (in red) by the number of points played by each players. The resulting ratio indicates the quality showed by each player. The higher the better. Since a quality match would show a good display by both players, I summed the ratio obtained for each player. The best results would normally identified the best matches. It goes without saying that an outstanding performance from a player tends to magnify the global ratio.

According to my experience, when the number showed in red is negative, the player was awful. From 10 to 20 we usually talk about an average or a good performance. From 30 the player normally played some very good to great tennis and over 40 it was just an amazing display of skills. Of course, those stats can't replace the real feeling given while watching a match and they're not taking into account the quality of the rallies, net play etc.

Without further preamble, here are the best matches, from a statistical perspective (W = winners, FE = forced errors, UE = unforced errors).

The best matches:

1- Serena/Kirilenko (4th round) Global Ratio of 0.80

Serena (22W + 17 FE) - 6UE = 33. Ratio 0.61
Kirilenko (7W + 13 FE) - 15UE = 5. Ratio 0.19

Obviously, that match wasn't that good, but Serena's epic performance single-handedly bring it to the top (and Kirilenko wasn't especially bad either, she was simply outclassed in every aspect).

2- Kirilenko/Peng (2nd round) Global Ratio of 0.71

Kirilenko (25W + 23 FE) - 16UE = 32. Ratio 0.43
Peng (25W + 19 FE) - 27UE = 5. Ratio 0.28

3- Na Li/Goerges (4th round) Global Ratio of 0.68

Na Li (16W + 30 FE) - 16UE = 30. Ratio 0.44
Goerges (9W + 25 FE) - 22UE = 12. Ratio 0.24

4- Wozniacki/Kuznetsova (4th round) Global Ratio of 0.68

Wozniacki (23W + 28 FE) - 22UE = 29. Ratio 0.32
Kuznetsova (52W + 25 FE) - 41UE = 36. Ratio 0.36

5- Radwanska/Ivanovic (4th round) Global Ratio of 0.66

Radwanska (14W + 20 FE) - 4UE = 30. Ratio 0.44
Ivanovic (35W + 10 FE) - 34UE = 11. Ratio 0.22

6- Kuznetsova/Hsieh Global Ratio of 0.60

Kuznetsova (23W + 20 FE) - 15UE = 28. Ratio 0.48
Hsieh (9W + 10 FE) - 15UE = 4. Ratio 0.12

7- Kvitova/Robson (2nd round) Global Ratio of 0.58

Kvitova (42W + 48 FE) - 51UE = 39. Ratio 0,30
Robson (25W + 52 FE) - 41UE = 36. Ratio 0,28

8- Kirilenko/Wickmayer (3rd round) Global Ratio of 0.58

Kirilenko (21W + 28 FE) - 22UE = 27. Ratio 0.35
Wickmayer(28W + 17 FE) - 29UE = 16. Ratio 0.23

9- Makarova/Bartoli (3rd round) Global Ratio of 0.57

Makarova (51W + 19 FE) - 32UE = 38. Ratio 0.34
Bartoli(27W + 38 FE) - 43UE = 22. Ratio 0.23

10- Makarova/Kerber(4th round) Global Ratio of 0.52

Makarova (32W + 22 FE) - 29UE = 25. Ratio 0.33
Kerber(23W + 11 FE) - 22UE = 12. Ratio 0.19


The good matches:

Radwanska/Watson Global Ratio of 0.49

Na Li/Sharapova Global Ratio of 0.46

Wickmayer/Cepelova Global Ratio of 0.45

Kvitova/Schiavone Global Ratio of 0.45

Vesnina/Vinci Global Ratio of 0.42

Azarenka/Hampton Global Ratio of 0.39

Wozniacki/Lisicki Global Ratio of 0.38

Serena/Morita Global Ratio of 0.38 (because of Serena's performance)

Sharapova/Flipkens Global Ratio of 0.36 (because of Sharapova's performance)

Azarenka/Kuznetsova Global Ratio of 0.32


The worst matches:

Those are either a total domination from a player or a pure shitfest.

1- Sharapova/Doi (2nd round) Global Ratio of -0.54

Sharapova (16W + 12 FE) - 9UE = 19. Ratio 0.40
Doi (1W + 5 FE) - 20UE = -14. Ratio -0.93

2- Wozniacki/Tsurenko (3th round) Global Ratio of -0.35

Wozniacki (5W + 12 FE) - 17UE = 0. Ratio 0.00
Doi (19W + 12 FE) - 48UE = -17. Ratio -0.35

3- Radwanska/Bobusic (First round) Global Ratio of -0.28

Radwanska (10W + 16 FE) - 16UE = 10. Ratio 0.15
Bobusic (17W + 7 FE) - 41UE = -17. Ratio -0.43

4- Jovanovski/Date-Krumm (3th round) Global Ratio of -0.25

Radwanska (29W + 22 FE) - 52UE = -1. Ratio -0.01
Bobusic (9W + 10 FE) - 36UE = -17. Ratio -0.24

5- Serena/Gallovits (3th round) Global Ratio of -0.24

Serena (18W + 15 FE) - 11UE = 22. Ratio 0.42
Gallovits (1W + 6 FE) - 19UE = -12. Ratio -0.66
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Old Jan 25th, 2013, 05:09 PM   #2
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Re: Best matches of the AO 2013 according to statistics

Interesting.

A lot of TFers claimed the Na/Julia match a "shitfest" between two BBBs, turns out this is the best of Na's all 6 matches

There should be another ratio to value a balanced performance from both players, then the Kuz/Woz match and Kvitova/Robson match could get higher marks


btw, where can I find FE figures of every match?
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Old Jan 25th, 2013, 07:16 PM   #3
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Re: Best matches of the AO 2013 according to statistics

Quote:
Originally Posted by Drake Ramoray View Post
Interesting.

A lot of TFers claimed the Na/Julia match a "shitfest" between two BBBs, turns out this is the best of Na's all 6 matches

There should be another ratio to value a balanced performance from both players, then the Kuz/Woz match and Kvitova/Robson match could get higher marks


btw, where can I find FE figures of every match?
Yes, these two matches have among the best stats for the whole tournament. As well as Kirilenko/Peng and Kirilenko/Wickmayer. I saw two of them (Woz/Kuzzy and Kiri/Wick) and they were both great. And the feedback for Kirilenko/Peng was very positive. I don't know for the Kvitova's upset. But the stats seem reliable when you read them properly.

About the FE, they're not available. You have to do the calculation.

You simply substract the amount of winners made by the player and the unforced errors made by her opponent from her total of points. The result are the FE.

As an example, in the Azarenka/Kuznetsova:

Azarenka made 95 pts. 26 of them were her own winners and she benefited of 43 UE from Kuzzy. The other 26 pts (95pts - 26W -43UE = 26) are the FE for Azarenka (those who are included in her pts).

The stats from the AO are available here:

http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/...15/2501ms.html
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