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Old Jan 21st, 2013, 12:16 PM   #1
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AO '13: Evaluate chances for QF outcomes

Quarter-finals are here. No outcome (win/lose) of a match is certain. The only thing we know for 100% is that a match will have a result. Please distribute the 100% between players to indicate what chance they have to win their encounter. My distributions are as follows:

V. Azarenka vs. S. Kuznetsova 65%:35%
S. Williams vs. S. Stephens 90%:10%
N. Li vs. A. Radwanska 45%:55%
E. Makarova vs. M. Sharapova 15%:85%
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Old Jan 21st, 2013, 12:18 PM   #2
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Re: AO '13: Evaluate chances for QF outcomes

Azarenka vs Kuznetsova - 70%:30%
S. Williams vs Stephens - 85%:15%
Li vs Radwanska - 40%:60%
Makarova vs Sharapova - 10%:90%
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Old Jan 21st, 2013, 12:20 PM   #3
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Re: AO '13: Evaluate chances for QF outcomes

Azarenka vs Kuznetsova - 75%:25%
S. Williams vs Stephens - 95%:5%
Li vs Radwanska - 35%:65%
Makarova vs Sharapova - 20%:80%
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Old Jan 21st, 2013, 12:24 PM   #4
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Re: AO '13: Evaluate chances for QF outcomes

V. Azarenka vs. S. Kuznetsova 65%:35%
S. Williams vs. S. Stephens 95%:5%
N. Li vs. A. Radwanska 50%:50%
E. Makarova vs. M. Sharapova 25%:75%
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Old Jan 21st, 2013, 12:25 PM   #5
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Re: AO '13: Evaluate chances for QF outcomes

V. Azarenka vs. S. Kuznetsova 60%:40%
S. Williams vs. S. Stephens 90%:10%
N. Li vs. A. Radwanska 30%:70%
E. Makarova vs. M. Sharapova 5%:95%
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Old Jan 21st, 2013, 12:26 PM   #6
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Re: AO '13: Evaluate chances for QF outcomes

V. Azarenka vs. S. Kuznetsova 70%:30%
S. Williams vs. S. Stephens 95%:5%
N. Li vs. A. Radwanska 40%:60%
E. Makarova vs. M. Sharapova 10%:90%
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Old Jan 21st, 2013, 12:43 PM   #7
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Re: AO '13: Evaluate chances for QF outcomes

Azarenka vs Kuznetsova - 65%:35% - even closer if I was more confident about Sveta's mantal strength
S. Williams vs Stephens - 90%:10%
Li vs Radwanska - 40%:60%
Makarova vs Sharapova - 20%:80%

Last edited by Irute : Jan 21st, 2013 at 05:25 PM.
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Old Jan 21st, 2013, 12:49 PM   #8
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Re: AO '13: Evaluate chances for QF outcomes

Azarenka vs Kuznetsova 70%-30%
S. Williams vs Stephens 100%-0%
Li vs Radwanska 40%-60%
Makarova vs Sharapova 30%-70%
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Old Jan 21st, 2013, 12:50 PM   #9
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Re: AO '13: Evaluate chances for QF outcomes

V.Azarenka vs S.Kuznetsova 50%-50%
S. Williams vs Stephens 90%-10%
Li vs Radwanska 30%-70%
Makarova vs Sharapova 10%-90%
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Old Jan 21st, 2013, 12:53 PM   #10
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Re: AO '13: Evaluate chances for QF outcomes

Azarenka - Kuznetsova 90% - 10%
Sharapova - Makarova 96% - 4%
Williams - Stephens 99% - 1%
Radwanska - Li 30% - 70%
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Old Jan 21st, 2013, 01:24 PM   #11
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Re: AO '13: Evaluate chances for QF outcomes

Azarenka 80%
Williams 99%
Radwanska 55%
Sharapova 88%
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Old Jan 21st, 2013, 01:37 PM   #12
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Re: AO '13: Evaluate chances for QF outcomes

Azarenka 80%
Williams 95%
Radwanska 75%
Sharapova 85%
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Old Jan 21st, 2013, 01:37 PM   #13
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Re: AO '13: Evaluate chances for QF outcomes

If Sveta plays at the level she played during the first sets of her last two matches, she can make this match competitive. But then we know those second sets came and Sveta's energy and skills seemed to be completely gone. On the other hand, Vika' s serving has been horrible this week, she played very streaky too. Hard to say, I would still go with Vika.

Aga can have a bad day, finally, after all those wins, so Na has a decent chance to win if she plays patiently.

The other two matches, I do not really see how an upset can happen, I would certainly love one.
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Old Jan 21st, 2013, 01:38 PM   #14
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Re: AO '13: Evaluate chances for QF outcomes

Azarenka - Kuznetsova: 70% 30%
Williams - Stephens: 99.8% 0.02%
Radwanska- Na: 55% 45%
Sharapova - Makarova: 95% 5%
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Old Jan 21st, 2013, 01:39 PM   #15
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Re: AO '13: Evaluate chances for QF outcomes

Azarenka 75%
Williams 95%
Radwanska 50%
Sharapova 90%
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