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Old Jan 12th, 2013, 11:34 PM   #16
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Re: Australian Open 2013

I don't think its a bad draw. To reach 2nd week on AO she only needs to defeat Wozniacki.
I checked the odds on betting sites (I don't bet, I just check those sites to see who they favorited) They favorited Wozniack which I wasn't expecting with looking their latest tennis. When they give these odds they watch players matches, trainings, they also know whats going on their life etc. So bookies may know something about Sabine or Wozniacki's tennis which we don't know. Maybe its a trap for bettors don't know...

Also odds for Wozniacki are decreasing and for Lisicki is increasing which means people betting for Wozniacki to win.
http://www.oddsportal.com/tennis/aus...2/#home-away;2
The tennis which she played against Safarova was good but I don't think Safarova started well to the new season so it is not a good criteria to understand Sabine's tennis. The tennis she played against Azarenka was nice but not her best. Great winners, serves and also unforced errors. I'm sure her team took action to fix them before AO which might be the reason to skip Sydney.
I heard Wozniacki training with Makarova these days. Don't know why she trains with a lefty player
I believe Sabine. We all know what she can do in her day. She can easily reach to 2nd week which might be her aim for this grand slam.
May the force be with you Sabine

Last edited by Geekking : Jan 12th, 2013 at 11:46 PM.
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Old Jan 13th, 2013, 12:11 AM   #17
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Re: Australian Open 2013

If both players have their best day, Sabine will win. Historically, Caro has been more consistently at her best although that has changed recently. There are so many uncertainties in this match that I don't think bookies have any better idea than the rest of us. We just have to hope that Sabine is healthy and confident, and I think she will be okay.
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Old Jan 13th, 2013, 07:03 AM   #18
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Re: Australian Open 2013

I really fancy Sabine to win. She seems very happy at present, and this always brings out the best in her. Her tweets..."I simply LOVE it here" is what she always says about Wimbledon, so hopefully she'll produce similar results
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Old Jan 13th, 2013, 07:28 AM   #19
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Re: Australian Open 2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by Geekking View Post
I don't think its a bad draw. To reach 2nd week on AO she only needs to defeat Wozniacki.
I checked the odds on betting sites (I don't bet, I just check those sites to see who they favorited) They favorited Wozniack which I wasn't expecting with looking their latest tennis. When they give these odds they watch players matches, trainings, they also know whats going on their life etc. So bookies may know something about Sabine or Wozniacki's tennis which we don't know. Maybe its a trap for bettors don't know...

Also odds for Wozniacki are decreasing and for Lisicki is increasing which means people betting for Wozniacki to win.
http://www.oddsportal.com/tennis/aus...2/#home-away;2
The tennis which she played against Safarova was good but I don't think Safarova started well to the new season so it is not a good criteria to understand Sabine's tennis. The tennis she played against Azarenka was nice but not her best. Great winners, serves and also unforced errors. I'm sure her team took action to fix them before AO which might be the reason to skip Sydney.
I heard Wozniacki training with Makarova these days. Don't know why she trains with a lefty player
I believe Sabine. We all know what she can do in her day. She can easily reach to 2nd week which might be her aim for this grand slam.
May the force be with you Sabine

They are not watching them train or anything like that, the odds are just calculated, pure math.

Wozniacki is higher ranked and won their HC match. They also take into account how they played individualy during the lastmonths. This is how the starting odds are calculated, the changes after that are due to bets put on them.

Wozniacki is the favorite which is no surprise at all, Sabine has shown some improvements, but we don't know how she will play at the AO.
The court favours Wozniacki a lot actually.....
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Old Jan 13th, 2013, 11:13 AM   #20
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Re: Australian Open 2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziva View Post

They are not watching them train or anything like that, the odds are just calculated, pure math.

Wozniacki is higher ranked and won their HC match. They also take into account how they played individualy during the lastmonths. This is how the starting odds are calculated, the changes after that are due to bets put on them.

Wozniacki is the favorite which is no surprise at all, Sabine has shown some improvements, but we don't know how she will play at the AO.
The court favours Wozniacki a lot actually.....
Ziva you are right, the odds are calculated by pure math, I know the formulas and how system works but I'm dead sure bookies watch players. I met some personally who do that for some major betting companies.
For example

If you check H2H Coco Vandeweghe vs Sorana Cirstea
Coco ranked 100
Cirstea ranked 27
Coco def Cirstea in Carlsbad

or

Barthel vs Pervak
Barthel ranked 32
Pervak ranked 79
Pervak leads 2-0 H2H but Barthel favorited even though Pervak def. Urszula and Wozniacki this season.

or
Parmentier vs Govortosova..
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Old Jan 13th, 2013, 12:39 PM   #21
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Re: Australian Open 2013

It's all about betting patterns, they don't care about the actual results. The odds are calculated in a way that the bookie makes money no matter what the result of the actual match.
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Old Jan 13th, 2013, 12:57 PM   #22
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Re: Australian Open 2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by Geekking View Post
Ziva you are right, the odds are calculated by pure math, I know the formulas and how system works but I'm dead sure bookies watch players. I met some personally who do that for some major betting companies.
For example

If you check H2H Coco Vandeweghe vs Sorana Cirstea
Coco ranked 100
Cirstea ranked 27
Coco def Cirstea in Carlsbad

or

Barthel vs Pervak
Barthel ranked 32
Pervak ranked 79
Pervak leads 2-0 H2H but Barthel favorited even though Pervak def. Urszula and Wozniacki this season.

or
Parmentier vs Govortosova..
yeah but the odds are mainly made by people betting on them, thats waht i meant, the bookies give some kind of direction, but betters decide how the bet actually turns out and its changing the whole time because of that.

Sure they change it a bit here and there to get max. profit no matter who wins.

Btw. i do bet a bit, but never on Bines matches, much to risky and i would never bet against her no matter what.
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Old Jan 13th, 2013, 08:00 PM   #23
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Re: Australian Open 2013

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Old Jan 13th, 2013, 08:14 PM   #24
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Re: Australian Open 2013

As expected Stats are in Caro's favour, by far
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Old Jan 14th, 2013, 02:18 AM   #25
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Re: Australian Open 2013

first match on Hisense Arena tomorrow
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Old Jan 14th, 2013, 02:47 AM   #26
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Re: Australian Open 2013

We can analyse the stats all we want but I prefer not to look so closely into that. It comes down to mentality under pressure. Sabine is definately capable of beating Wozniacki and I'm not making excuses in advance if she doesn't. Her her record on HC isn't so good yet she made the 4th round last year, so I'm confident and not worried about in depth stats on hard court. Woz is highly beatable at the moment so it all comes down to Sabine's performance.
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Old Jan 14th, 2013, 07:53 AM   #27
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Re: Australian Open 2013

She plays on Hisense tomorrow, 11:00 local 01:00 CET
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Old Jan 14th, 2013, 08:09 AM   #28
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Re: Australian Open 2013

Surprised it's not the night match. Wickmayer vs Gajdosova can hardly be described as a more entertaining match. I know Gajdosova goes under the banner of Australia, but she will always be Slovakian in my eyes
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Old Jan 14th, 2013, 08:30 AM   #29
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Re: Australian Open 2013

I'm sure last year it would have been a centre court match, but I guess after Sabine's form last year and even Caroline's it loses billing in the minds of tournament organisers. The highest ranked players and Aussies get top priority for Rod Laver Arena. Still the match will surely be on cable here and obviously streamed.
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Old Jan 15th, 2013, 01:03 AM   #30
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Re: Australian Open 2013

She should have won that match in 2 sets, even after the 4-0 down. She had all the chances. That 3rd set was so incredibly bad. Almost speechless.
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