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Old Jan 12th, 2013, 12:59 PM   #166
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Re: Australian Open 2013

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Originally Posted by mk27 View Post
AF bleibt aus deutscher Sicht absolute Pflicht, alles andere wäre katastrophal. Man sollte nicht vergessen, dass die US Open größtenteils schon blamabel waren.
Ich schätze mal die ersten 3 Gegnerinnen der Deutschen (Runde 4 wäre ja dann AF):

Sabine Lisicki (Caroline Wozniacki, Andrea Hlavackova, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova) -> gegen Wozniacki und Pavlyuchenkova sehe ich sie nicht als Favoritin. Die Chance die ersten 3 Runden zu überstehen dürften daher sehr gering sein.

Annika Beck (Yaroslava Shvedova, Anna Tatishvili, Serena Williams) -> Es wär schon ein Erfolg die erste Runde zu überstehen. In Runde 3 ist auf jeden Fall Schluss.

Julia Goerges (Vera Dushevina, Tsvetana Pironkova, Samantha Stosur) Dass es zu einem Duell Görges Stosur überhaupt kommt, sehe ich bei der Form der beiden als eher unwahrscheinlich. Bei Görges Form könnte tatsächlich gegen Pironkova oder Oprandi in R2 Schluss sein.

Mona Barthel (Ksenia Pervak, Heather Watson, Agnieszka Radwanska) Gegen Pervak hat sie eine Bilanz von 0:2. Watson wäre auch ein Hürde. Und bei der Form der Polin, dürfte in R3 spätestens Schluss sein. Neben Lisicki das härteste Draw.

Angelique Kerber (Elina Svitolina, Lucie Hradecka, Madison Keys/Tamira Paszek) Hradecka ist an einem guten Tag immer gefährlich. In R3 hätte ich lieber Paszek als die junge Keys. Aber Kerber hat gute Chancen die ersten 3 Runden zu schaffen.

Würd mich also nicht wundern, wenn nur Kerber das Achtelfinale schafft.
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Old Jan 12th, 2013, 01:22 PM   #167
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Re: Australian Open 2013

Dann ist es die nächste Verschlechterung zum Vorjahr und dann braucht wirklich niemand mehr mit dem Wort Aufstieg in Verbindung zum deutschen Damentennis zu kommen.

2011 war Petkovic noch im VF von Melbourne
2012 standen Görges und Lisicki im AF von Melbourne, dazu 3.Runde von Kerber und Barthel
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Old Jan 12th, 2013, 01:43 PM   #168
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Re: Australian Open 2013

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Originally Posted by mk27 View Post
Dann ist es die nächste Verschlechterung zum Vorjahr und dann braucht wirklich niemand mehr mit dem Wort Aufstieg in Verbindung zum deutschen Damentennis zu kommen.
Mach' ich trotzdem

Code:
Aufstieg der deutschen Tennisdamen

Januar Beste Top10 Top20 Top50
 2009    56     0     0     0
 2010    22     0     0     1
 2011    33     0     0     3
 2012    10     1     2     4
 2013     5     1     2     4

Und im Race aktuell 2 in den Top 10.

Also langfristig, mittelfristig und kurzfristig ein klarer Aufstieg. Und hätte Petko nicht die Seuche, würde es sogar noch besser aussehen.
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Old Jan 12th, 2013, 02:00 PM   #169
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Re: Australian Open 2013

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Originally Posted by Holy Father View Post
Also langfristig, mittelfristig und kurzfristig ein klarer Aufstieg. Und hätte Petko nicht die Seuche, würde es sogar noch besser aussehen.
Langfristig wohl kaum und ob Petkovic verletzt, krank oder sonst etwas hat, spielt für die Betrachtung absolut keine Rolle.
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Old Jan 12th, 2013, 02:01 PM   #170
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Re: Australian Open 2013

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Mach' ich trotzdem
Wird dir aber nichts nutzen. Mk wird dann eben ab Ende 2011 rechnen.

Ich rechne übrigens auch nur mit Kerber im Achtelfinale. Wobei ich bei Görges sowieso keine Prognosen mehr wage aus den bekannten Gründen.
Bei Kerber sehe ich es als "Pflicht", aber nur in Gänsefüßen. Über alles darüber hinaus würde ich mich freuen.
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Old Jan 12th, 2013, 02:06 PM   #171
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Re: Australian Open 2013

Nur Beck und Kerber würden bei frühen Niederlagen nicht signifikant abstürzen, anders sieht das bei Barthel aber vor allem bei Görges und Lisicki aus.

Lisicki droht der Absturz aus den Top 50. Wenn man bedenkt, dass sie vor einem halben Jahr noch in Richtung Top 10 schauen konnte, ist das fast schon ein Debakel.
Barthel droht der Absturz aus den Top 40, dazu hat sie bereits bei den letzten 3 GS-Turnieren in der 1.Runde verloren.
Görges droht der Absturz aus den Top 25.
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Old Jan 12th, 2013, 02:11 PM   #172
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Re: Australian Open 2013

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Originally Posted by mk27 View Post
Nur Beck und Kerber würden bei frühen Niederlagen nicht signifikant abstürzen, anders sieht das bei Barthel aber vor allem bei Görges und Lisicki aus.

Lisicki droht der Absturz aus den Top 50. Wenn man bedenkt, dass sie vor einem halben Jahr noch in Richtung Top 10 schauen konnte, ist das fast schon ein Debakel.
Barthel droht der Absturz aus den Top 40, dazu hat sie bereits bei den letzten 3 GS-Turnieren in der 1.Runde verloren.
Görges droht der Absturz aus den Top 25.
Was denen schon alles droht. Muss dich ja gefuchst haben, dass Barthel doch noch so viele Punkte in Hobart gewonnen hat, du hattest ja vor dem Turnier schon einen signifikanten Absturz prognostiziert.

Und auch wenn ich mich wiederhole: der Aufschwung ist sicher nicht vorbei, weil das Spielermaterial noch da ist!
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Old Jan 12th, 2013, 02:23 PM   #173
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Re: Australian Open 2013

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Was denen schon alles droht. Muss dich ja gefuchst haben, dass Barthel doch noch so viele Punkte in Hobart gewonnen hat, du hattest ja vor dem Turnier schon einen signifikanten Absturz prognostiziert.
Barthel hat zumindest den Absturz abgebremst. Sie wird trotzdem ab Montag nur auf 38 im Ranking stehen und hat 160 Punkte in Melbourne zu verteidigen. Lisicki ist inzwischen Lichtjahre vom ihrem Höchstranking entfernt und ob Petkovic je die Top 50 wieder erreichen wird, das steht in den Sternen.
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Old Jan 12th, 2013, 02:27 PM   #174
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Re: Australian Open 2013

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...und ob Petkovic verletzt, krank oder sonst etwas hat, spielt für die Betrachtung absolut keine Rolle.
Du sprachst vom "deutschen Damentennis". Für diese Betrachtung spielt Petko keine Bedeutung?
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Old Jan 12th, 2013, 02:29 PM   #175
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Re: Australian Open 2013

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Du sprachst vom "deutschen Damentennis". Für diese Betrachtung spielt Petko keine Bedeutung?
Es zählt die aktuelle Platzierung und nicht wieso, warum und weshalb
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Old Jan 12th, 2013, 02:37 PM   #176
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Re: Australian Open 2013

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Es zählt die aktuelle Platzierung und nicht wieso, warum und weshalb
Eben nicht.
Ich hab lieber eine Lisicki, die jederzeit eine der großen schlagen kann, als eine Su-Wei Hsieh, die durch kleine Turniere vor der Deutschen steht, aber dann chancenlos gegen eine Annika Beck ist.
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Old Jan 12th, 2013, 02:38 PM   #177
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Re: Australian Open 2013

Doppel-Teams

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Kerber/A.Radwanska
Görges/Stosur
Grönefeld/Peschke
Barthel/Cornet
Beck/Dekmeijere
Malek/Bertens
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Old Jan 12th, 2013, 02:44 PM   #178
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Re: Australian Open 2013

Lisicki ist aber die Einzige, die über den Winter etwas spürbar verbessert hat (Fitness, und ich finde den 2. Aufschlag stabiler). Ich denke, dass sie mit den kleinen Turnieren nach den AO auch richtig liegt. Danach würde ich ein erstes Zwischenfazit ziehen.

Aber bei Görges und Barthel sehe ich einfach viele Stolpersteine im Draw.

Letztlich wird es wohl Kerber richten und vllt. kann uns Beck ja sogar überraschen.
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Old Jan 12th, 2013, 02:45 PM   #179
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Re: Australian Open 2013

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Originally Posted by mk27 View Post
Langfristig wohl kaum und ob Petkovic verletzt, krank oder sonst etwas hat, spielt für die Betrachtung absolut keine Rolle.
Natürlich gibt es einen langfristigen Aufstieg im deutschen Damentennis. OMG bist du ignorant.
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Old Jan 12th, 2013, 02:48 PM   #180
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Re: Australian Open 2013

Für Beck ist das glaube ich erst das 2. Mal in einem MD bei einem Major, und definitiv das erste mal, dass nicht rein unter "dabei sein ist alles" fällt. Da wäre auch eine Erstrundenpleite kein Beinbruch.
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