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Old Jan 15th, 2013, 02:03 PM   #1
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Day 3 - upsets

Rank the seeded players: who has the biggest chance to loose in R2? Use 1-5 points system. 1 point means that the possibility is very small, on the opposite 5 means big possibility.

Radwanska (4) - Begu : 1/5
Stosur (9) - Zheng : 3/5
V.Williams (25) - Cornet : 2/5 (you never know with her health nowadays)
Li (6) - Govortsova : 2/5
Sharapova (2) - Doi : 1/5
Kerber (5) - Hradecka : 2/5
Goerges (18) - Oprandi : 3/5
Ivanovic (13) - Chan : 2/5
Cibulkova (15) - Savinykh : 2/5
Jankovic (22) - Koehler : 2/5
Paszek (30) - Keys : 4/5
Bartoli (11) - Dolonc : 2/5
Zakopalova (23) - Flipkens : 3/5
Makarova (19) - Foretz : 2/5
Cirstea (27) - Pliskova : 4/5
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Old Jan 15th, 2013, 02:11 PM   #2
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Re: Day 3 - upsets

Radwanska (4) - Begu : 1/5
Stosur (9) - Zheng : 4/5
V.Williams (25) - Cornet : 2/5
Li (6) - Govortsova : 2/5
Sharapova (2) - Doi : 1/5
Kerber (5) - Hradecka : 2/5
Goerges (18) - Oprandi : 4/5
Ivanovic (13) - Chan : 2/5
Cibulkova (15) - Savinykh : 2/5
Jankovic (22) - Koehler : 2/5
Paszek (30) - Keys : 5/5
Bartoli (11) - Dolonc : 2/5
Zakopalova (23) - Flipkens : 3/5
Makarova (19) - Foretz : 2/5
Cirstea (27) - Pliskova : 4/5
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Old Jan 15th, 2013, 02:29 PM   #3
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Re: Day 3 - upsets

Radwanska (4) - Begu : 1/5 (Aga might get tired at some point in this tournament but not in this round)
Stosur (9) - Zheng : 4/5 (well, it's Stosur)
V.Williams (25) - Cornet : 1/5 (Cornet has absolutely nothing to hurt Venus with)
Li (6) - Govortsova : 1/5 (Li is simply too good atm)
Sharapova (2) - Doi : 1/5 (this will surely be NID)
Kerber (5) - Hradecka : 2/5 (Kerber likes error-prone ball bashers - if Lucie has a GOAT day she might have an outside chance though)
Goerges (18) - Oprandi : 3/5 (Görges is inconsistent so you never know)
Ivanovic (13) - Chan : 2/5 (expect Ana to win this rather comfortably)
Cibulkova (15) - Savinykh : 1/5 (Domi showing some good form lately; upset is unlikely imo)
Jankovic (22) - Koehler : 2/5 (OK, maybe 5/5 would be more accurate since we're talking about JJ)
Paszek (30) - Keys : 4/5 (Tamira - HC - upset in the making)
Bartoli (11) - Dolonc : 1/5 (probably an easy win for Marion)
Zakopalova (23) - Flipkens : 3/5 (Kirsten certainly has a chance here but Klara's form has been good as well)
Makarova (19) - Foretz : 2/5 (hard to predict Ekat's matches but still)
Cirstea (27) - Pliskova : 4/5 (depends on how Sori's brain works which means that it might easily be completely out of action)
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Old Jan 15th, 2013, 02:38 PM   #4
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Re: Day 3 - upsets

Radwanska (4) - Begu : 1/5
Stosur (9) - Zheng : 4/5
V.Williams (25) - Cornet : 2/5
Li (6) - Govortsova : 1/5
Sharapova (2) - Doi : 1/5
Kerber (5) - Hradecka : 3/5
Goerges (18) - Oprandi : 3/5
Ivanovic (13) - Chan : 2/5
Cibulkova (15) - Savinykh : 1/5
Jankovic (22) - Koehler : 2/5
Paszek (30) - Keys : 5/5
Bartoli (11) - Dolonc : 1/5
Zakopalova (23) - Flipkens : 2/5
Makarova (19) - Foretz : 1/5
Cirstea (27) - Pliskova : 3/5
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Old Jan 15th, 2013, 02:43 PM   #5
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Re: Day 3 - upsets

Radwanska (4) - Begu : 1/5
Stosur (9) - Zheng : 3/5
V.Williams (25) - Cornet : 1/5
Li (6) - Govortsova : 2/5
Sharapova (2) - Doi : 1/5
Kerber (5) - Hradecka : 1/5
Goerges (18) - Oprandi : 3/5
Ivanovic (13) - Chan : 1/5
Cibulkova (15) - Savinykh : 2/5
Jankovic (22) - Koehler : 2/5
Paszek (30) - Keys : 4/5
Bartoli (11) - Dolonc : 1/5
Zakopalova (23) - Flipkens : 3/5
Makarova (19) - Foretz : 2/5
Cirstea (27) - Pliskova : 3/5

Funny how this half seems to be sticking together and the top is falling apart already. Normally its the shit half/quarters that fall apart making for epic joke QFs (Errani/Vinci anyone)
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Old Jan 15th, 2013, 02:53 PM   #6
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Re: Day 3 - upsets

Tamira
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Old Jan 15th, 2013, 07:10 PM   #7
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Re: Day 3 - upsets

Not going through every match.

Georges has a bad habit of losing to players she shouldn't be and is so erratic, so I rank her as most likely.

Flipkens has been playing well since last fall and Zako can be hot and cold. Thats my 2nd choice.

Despite the seedings, I wouldn't consider Keys beating Paszek an upset.
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Old Jan 15th, 2013, 07:18 PM   #8
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Re: Day 3 - upsets

Radwanska (4) - Begu : 1/5
Stosur (9) - Zheng : 4/5
V.Williams (25) - Cornet : 1/5
Li (6) - Govortsova : 2/5
Sharapova (2) - Doi : 1/5
Kerber (5) - Hradecka : 2/5
Goerges (18) - Oprandi : 4/5
Ivanovic (13) - Chan : 2/5
Cibulkova (15) - Savinykh : 2/5
Jankovic (22) - Koehler : 2/5
Paszek (30) - Keys : 5/5
Bartoli (11) - Dolonc : 2/5
Zakopalova (23) - Flipkens : 2/5
Makarova (19) - Foretz : 1/5
Cirstea (27) - Pliskova : 3/5
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Old Jan 15th, 2013, 07:20 PM   #9
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Re: Day 3 - upsets

Radwanska (4) - Begu : 1/5
Stosur (9) - Zheng : 4/5
V.Williams (25) - Cornet : 1/5
Li (6) - Govortsova : 2/5
Sharapova (2) - Doi : 1/5
Kerber (5) - Hradecka : 3/5
Goerges (18) - Oprandi : 4/5
Ivanovic (13) - Chan : 2/5
Cibulkova (15) - Savinykh : 3/5
Jankovic (22) - Koehler : 2/5
Paszek (30) - Keys : 5/5
Bartoli (11) - Dolonc : 3/5
Zakopalova (23) - Flipkens : 3/5
Makarova (19) - Foretz : 3/5
Cirstea (27) - Pliskova : 4/5
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Old Jan 15th, 2013, 07:22 PM   #10
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Re: Day 3 - upsets

Radwanska (4) - Begu : 1/5
Stosur (9) - Zheng : 4/5
V.Williams (25) - Cornet : 2/5
Li (6) - Govortsova : 2/5
Sharapova (2) - Doi : 1/5
Kerber (5) - Hradecka : 2/5
Goerges (18) - Oprandi : 4/5
Ivanovic (13) - Chan : 2/5
Cibulkova (15) - Savinykh : 2/5
Jankovic (22) - Koehler : 2/5
Paszek (30) - Keys : 4/5
Bartoli (11) - Dolonc : 2/5
Zakopalova (23) - Flipkens : 4/5
Makarova (19) - Foretz : 2/5
Cirstea (27) - Pliskova : 3/5
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Old Jan 15th, 2013, 07:24 PM   #11
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Re: Day 3 - upsets

Quote:
Originally Posted by Natural Joe View Post
Radwanska (4) - Begu : 1/5 (Aga might get tired at some point in this tournament but not in this round)
Li (6) - Govortsova : 1/5 (Li is simply too good atm)
What's the logic here? Radwanska will get tired but Li won't despite having played more tennis this year and being 7 years older?
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Old Jan 15th, 2013, 07:24 PM   #12
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Re: Day 3 - upsets

Radwanska (4) v. Begu: No chance, obviously.

Stosur (9) v. Zheng: I'd make this 50/50. Stosur can lose to absolutely anybody in Australia, but she's a really bad match-up for Zheng, and she'll probably be a little more settled than she was in her last match. Still, Zheng beat her last week, so who knows...

V.Williams (25) - Cornet: Cornet is garbage, so even if Sjogrenus shows up, she'll still win in 3.

Li (6) v. Govortsova: Govortsova hasn't done anything in ages, so Li would have to play terrible to lose this.

Sharapova v. Doi: No chance, obviously.

Kerber v. Hradecka: Hradecka in-form is obviously a danger to anybody, but the chances she puts in a good enough performance to give herself a chance in this one are slim to none.

Goerges v. Oprandi: Goerges was a me$$ against Dushevina. She beat Oprandi here last year though and I haven't seen Oprandi plays in years so I have no idea what her ground game is looking like these days, but if all she has is her bag of tricks then I don't think she'll get the upset.

Ivanovic v. Chan : Another NID oppenent for VIP.

Cibulkova v. Savinykh: Savinykh is really average, but if Cibulkova puts in a stinker then a steady performance could be enough to take her out.

Jankovic v. Koehler: Junkovic can lose to anybody these days, and Koehler seems to be playing well, so I'm predicting a her in 3 to prevent the Serbian Sister R3.

Paszek v. Keys: Paszek is the new Grassonkova, and Keys is on the verge of a breakout, so I think she'll take this in 2.

Bartoli v. Dolonc: I think Dolonc will be too up-and-down for Bartoli.

Zakopalova v. Flipkens: Both were in good form in AO lead-ups. Flipkens has a decent shot at the "upset" in 3
Makarova v. Foretz: Meh, no idea really, but Foretz is a non-entity and Makarova always plays well in Australia so I don't see an upset.

Cirstea v. Pliskova: Should be a messy match, and while I think that the blond Pliskova has a decent chance here, you can never rely on the Pliskys to do anything.
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Old Jan 15th, 2013, 07:34 PM   #13
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Re: Day 3 - upsets

Radwanska (4) - Begu : 0/5
Stosur (9) - Zheng : 3/5
V.Williams (25) - Cornet : 1/5 (Venus leads their H2H, but it depends on her health)
Li (6) - Govortsova : 2/5
Sharapova (2) - Doi : 0/5
Kerber (5) - Hradecka : 1/5
Goerges (18) - Oprandi : 3/5
Ivanovic (13) - Chan : 2/5
Cibulkova (15) - Savinykh : 1/5
Jankovic (22) - Koehler : 2/5
Paszek (30) - Keys : 10/5 (Let's be Honest Madison Keys has to be the favorite)
Bartoli (11) - Dolonc : 2/5
Zakopalova (23) - Flipkens : 3/5
Makarova (19) - Foretz : 2/5
Cirstea (27) - Pliskova : 4/5
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Old Jan 15th, 2013, 07:38 PM   #14
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Re: Day 3 - upsets

Keys isn't really an upset. She's the clear betting fav.
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Old Jan 15th, 2013, 07:42 PM   #15
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Re: Day 3 - upsets

I think people are underestimating Begu. She ripped Wozniacki last year at USO and breezed through round 1 here. Aga still favorite, obviously, but an upset shouldn't be a total shock given the way Aga keeps her opponent in the point.
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