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Old Jul 28th, 2013, 08:01 PM   #4351
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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Originally Posted by Trey View Post
Sharapova has just WD from Roger CUp & I think Vika did not enter it so I think that make Caro the 7-8 seed ?
Vika has taken a wildcard. So no, Caro #9 seed unless someone else withdraws.
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Old Jul 28th, 2013, 08:51 PM   #4352
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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Originally Posted by goldenlox View Post
Which means she's not coming back until the top players are all in the draw.
Everything with Caro is all wrong. The scheduling, the lack of fight.
Things have just fallen and fallen. She almost HAS to get a coach.
It seems she is doing everything possible to unravel her career. She's going into Rogers Cup as a noncontender, after winning it in 2010
Agree!
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Old Jul 28th, 2013, 09:50 PM   #4353
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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Originally Posted by Saraya00000 View Post
Agree!
I thought Rory must know what he's doing to have 2 majors and be #1 last fall.
But I now agree with you. He's crazy and seems glad to screw around with his career. Cant be a good influence for Caroline.
Caroline has to get to work. I mean mentally. She has to go into these matches the way she used to. The way Radwanska does now.
You have to be mentally strong the whole match
Rory's career is a mess now and Caroline is the same
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Old Jul 28th, 2013, 10:13 PM   #4354
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

Orf wiv their 'eads!
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Old Jul 30th, 2013, 12:16 AM   #4355
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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Originally Posted by ozza View Post
(Warning: I know some of you hate betting talk, if you don't like it, don't read this post )

The problem with this is it's taking bookmaker odds, and one particular bookmaker at that (who are also known for being one of the worst). Bookmakers odds aren't the true market value, they aren't the true expectations. The Asian markets are the true market value, they are the true expectations (to an extent, in tennis it's nearly always true, in stuff like football there are other factors, I will only give explanation if asked though because it's irrelevant to this). Contrary to what bookmakers claim, the amount of odds making they actually do these days is nearly zero, they pretty much only get involved in pricing things up initially. After that they just move their prices in line with what is going on in Asia, and align appropriately to what they want to achieve (explained below).

Sharapova is a popular bet with bookmakers thus they undercut her price massively. You see this with current USO odds. Sharapova is best price 7/1 with the bookmakers, Azarenka is best price 6/1 with the bookmakers. In full market odds Azarenka is trading at around 8/1, Sharapova is trading is trading at 12.5/1. Notice how much more of an edge the bookmakers have taken on Sharapova, because she is a more popular bet, thus people will back her at any price. They want to reduce their liabilities, this is why bookmakers will consistently put up crap odds on Kvitova, Robson etc. On the flip side look at Serena's USO odds. 10/11 best price at bookmakers, incidentally this is around the exact price she is trading in markets. You may ask isn't Serena a popular bet too, why are they taking next to no edge whatsoever opposing her. The answer is because the vast majority of bookmakers target audience don't back 10/11 outright odds over a 2 week period. They want a "bit of value" so look elsewhere.

You can see the very flaw in the USO 2010 prices. Sharapova 7/2, Wozniacki 7/1. They played in R4, prices were Wozniacki 1.73-2.35 Sharapova. It's blindingly obvious from the form guide going in why Wozniacki was a bigger favourite, but you have to remember how bookmakers operate. Bookmakers aren't really in the business contrary to what they tell you of taking serious bets. They will never take someone plonking down like 10k on on of these outrights. They want the thousands of people who will come to a grand slam, and bet like 25 quid on someone "for interest", to these people form guide isn't really of interest, they just want to back Sharapova because they know her, she's hot, whatever.

Anyway enough of that. The reason I say betting odds aren't great for these purposes, because if you are using this, you are getting into the territory of Caro was never the best player in the world, never actually expected to win majors etc. The truth is though if you'd taken Caro's average odds to win grand slams by now, expectation would dictate she should have won at least one, so in that sense she has still underachieved. By the same principle, her averaged odds extrapolated to the future from this point will say she should win none.

A couple of quick points on your individual event points. "Wimbledon : R4 - better than the only other tournament on grass - Eastbourne R1 loss." The Wimbledon odds don't pay much attention to what goes on in Eastbourne. Radwanska, Kvitova lost early this year, their prices barely moved as a result. Eastbourne is highly unpredictable every year, and too many of the best players are missing for it to be truly used as a guide.

Pinning the exact point where her decline started is debatable. It tends to be thought of somewhere around Roland Garros 2011-Canada 2011 though. The USO 2011 odds you posted are slightly flawed on top of the points posted above. They were taken before she won New Haven, late money will have come in for the world number 1 winning the week before a grand slam. I have her starting 4th favourite, but I also think my odds are taken after the draw was made (Azarenka had a terrible draw here).

On this point: "Finally AO 2012 well into her slide. So with no good results at other tournaments - now you expect her to beat Kim - a player she has never ever beaten and that she's an underperformer just at slams because she doesn't?" Clijsters was very beatable here. Point is often made how Caro had it hard, she had to always beat one of Clijsters or Serena on her way. What are we hoping for then? That she just gets a dream draw with zero obstacles in her way? Rarely going to happen. Azarenka also had to beat Clijsters to win her first grand slam title here, Caro had the same opportunity here. The betting odds for this were pretty much 50:50, and Caro had her chances to drag it into a 3rd when Kim was looking tired, but she didn't.

On your final point. It still ultimately hasn't brought her the ultimate prize. You try things, you tinker, trying to find that extra couple of %. The schedule completely backfired on her last year, it likely played a major role in her going into the US Open injured. You can't just ignore that last year she went out R1 on top of the good results in the years prior. On top of this Caro isn't in the position anymore where she should be passing up easy ranking points. Look at the draw in Stanford this week, far softer than the draw in New Haven. You of course have to balance these things out, but something needs to be looked at as to why Caro is joint 28th in terms of grand slam points earned in the past year (she was in a similar low position last year), because for a player of her calibre that's simply not good enough.
Three whole paras of minor inconsistencies on betting odds. Betting odds and a consensus of expert analysts are the best measure we have of expectations. And the level realistically expected gives definition to the word underperform. Whatever you say about not liking the betting odds I showed for 2010 USO - they agreed totally with all the experts predictions beforehand. They were split betwee Kim and Masha winning the USO. Can't remeber a single analyst tipping any other player

And I can't believe you are trying to defend your assertion that Caro underperfored at AO 2012 compared to other tournament by glibly sayng Kim was very beatable. Just where in the last 8 months did you get this expectation that Caro had become good enough to beat Kim. I mean the only time Caro had got past QF at any tournament for the past 7 months was USO and New Haven, So I don't know what other tounament in that period she was underperforming by not beating the player who she had never ever beaten, had won the AO the previous year, and was Vika's toughest opponent to win the slam that year.

As for your you are getting into the territory of Caro was never the best player in the world, never actually expected to win majors etc - I did explain this but I'll try again. Caro was #1 - thoroughly deserved. It measured the best player in the world over a sustained 12 month period. She was the best in the world over the long haul. But she was never the best in the world for say a one on one match or at a slam where every top player is present if they can walk. She was even more never the best player in the world if you measure peak player vs peak Caro etc.

Imagine a heptathlon and a player you support winning it. She is the best and she wins some of the events. But it doesn't mean to say she's better than the other athletes at each and every event. Suppose in her weakest event there were 3 athletes just better than her. Your post is like saying she underperformed when she comes in 3rd at that particular event but wins overall at the heptahlon. No she did not underperform. There were 3 athletes expected to do better than her at that single event.

Anyway I'm proud of Caro's record end of 2010 to beginning 2011 when she strung together those results. And that includes those slam SFs. No if and buts - I'm proud of that for her.

Finally who cares if she is 28th at slams now when she has gone so far downhill that she can't actually get past the 1st or 2nd round of almost every tournament she plays. Lets see her just winning matches before we get into some fantasy land of her doing anything lremotely like as great as she was at slams on hard courts in her heyday. After a good break after Wimbledon, make sure that injury is gone and just focus on winning again wherever it is at.
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Old Jul 30th, 2013, 12:37 AM   #4356
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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These discussions are like Caro has already retired, but since she seems to have lost the fight & focus she used to have, I'll give my opinion on USO's F, SF, SF:
She got lucky the QF Oudin, SF Wickmayer. Kim was playing Serena in the other semi.
It was a lopsided draw. The 2 semis were okay, nothing bad, not underachieveing, but Vera was a winnable semi.

Overall, if thats it - those 3 and the loss with matchpoint against Li, I would say she didnt underperform, but didnt play her absolute best either.
But she had other majors where she did underperform, like Hantuchova loss, so overall I would say her slam results were about average. But a short window where she was a contender, and she never took advantage like she did in many good fields outside majors
I dont think she deserves criticism for those slam results. But the fall off after wards was strange. The more I watch Rory blow up his career, I can see having him around was not good.
Thanks for your views. I should clarify that I'm not claiming I wasn't disppointed with some of her matches she lost at slams. Having made SF at AO 2011 and USO 2010 - yes I was disappointed she lost winnable matches. But I could go on and on and say the same thing at all the other tournaments whenever she lost. Miami and Stuttgard 2011 I can say I really was disappointed the way she lost. But those two slam SFs in the middle of her 2010-2011 amazing sequence. I think of that very much a part of that sequence with no thought of it underperforming.
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Old Jul 30th, 2013, 01:15 AM   #4357
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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Thanks for your views. I should clarify that I'm not claiming I wasn't disppointed with some of her matches she lost at slams. Having made SF at AO 2011 and USO 2010 - yes I was disappointed she lost winnable matches. But I could go on and on and say the same thing at all the other tournaments whenever she lost. Miami and Stuttgard 2011 I can say I really was disappointed the way she lost. But those two slam SFs in the middle of her 2010-2011 amazing sequence. I think of that very much a part of that sequence with no thought of it underperforming.
Yeah, its a middleground. She certainly doesnt have to apologize for a slam final and 3 semis, but I understand the criticism of a player who was #1 for 2 years and no slam finals in the 8 majors those 2 years.

But 2 years ago Caro went into Wimbledon having won 9 of 19 tournaments. Now she goes to Rogers Cup with no titles in 2013 and she lost 10 of her last 17 matches.
So she's a different player now. Struggles to win any match.
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Old Jul 31st, 2013, 11:16 AM   #4358
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

Rory getting criticised by older golf stars who can see he has much more talent than his 2013 results.

But look at Caroline, since she lost her #1, she only won 7 matches at the last 6 majors. So her career has dropped for 2 years.
Now she underachieves every major.
I think the relationship has been worse on Caro's career
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Old Jul 31st, 2013, 11:03 PM   #4359
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

andyroddick ‏@andyroddick jetzt
I'm so sick of people bagging on Mcilroy and Caroline. They're both very bright and nice people. Let them live and stop looking for stories
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Old Jul 31st, 2013, 11:07 PM   #4360
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

Last person I would have expected to talk about wozzlry. Love you A-Rod!
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Old Jul 31st, 2013, 11:29 PM   #4361
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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Last person I would have expected to talk about wozzlry. Love you A-Rod!
Never like him before - but now!!!!
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Old Aug 1st, 2013, 12:34 AM   #4362
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

Nice word from Roddick always been a fan of his miss him on tour
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Old Aug 1st, 2013, 12:44 AM   #4363
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

Maybe all this commotion will be good for her focus. I'm looking forward to see what her game looks like in Rogers Cup
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Old Aug 1st, 2013, 12:46 AM   #4364
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

CARO Fans..please Help me in my Thread in GM!!! this Jimmie make me so angry!!!!
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Old Aug 1st, 2013, 12:52 AM   #4365
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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CARO Fans..please Help me in my Thread in GM!!! this Jimmie make me so angry!!!!
Don't waste your energy, it's not worth it.

Looking forward to the Rogers Cup, I'm hoping she gets a few matches under her belt. It's been a long break! Interesting month ahead of us!
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