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Old Jul 26th, 2013, 12:10 AM   #4321
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

look like Hinigs is coming back to play singles this going make thing hardly on Caro & Aga too win too win an major which in Caro case her form has been bad lately & she has not been doing good at the major so she going have too make so improvement and changes soon if she want too stay in the mix
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Old Jul 26th, 2013, 12:15 AM   #4322
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trey View Post
look like Hinigs is coming back to play singles this going make thing hardly on Caro & Aga too win too win an major which in Caro case her form has been bad lately & she has not been doing good at the major so she going have too make so improvement and changes soon if she want too stay in the mix
I don't really see how Hingis coming back to singles if she does is going to make things harder on Caro or Aga. She won't be remotely competitive with the top players.
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Old Jul 26th, 2013, 12:19 AM   #4323
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

^ Well to be Honest wasn't much of a big Hinigs fan in the 90's I more of a fan of the The Williams Sister, Justine Henin, & Elena D. I just said Hingis might be a problem due too the fact how well Kim & Justine comeback were
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Old Jul 26th, 2013, 12:27 AM   #4324
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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Originally Posted by ozza View Post
Caro is defending 2270 points between now and the end of the year. She only has 7 events left on her schedule (and can't add anymore unless she qualifies for Istanbul or Sofia). To put in perspective how much this, Caro this year has earned 2075 points and has played 16 events.

I also forgot to add in my previous rankings post, Caro has to come out of the USO with at least a 280 point gap over #11, because post-USO the points from Seoul come off the Monday Tokyo starts, which she is not defending.
If Caro continues the rest of the year like the last 4 months, she's way out of the top 10.
I think its similar to Jankovic & Ivanovic. Once you have money, its harder to be motivated and focused.
When Caro was playing well she went deep into almost every draw.
Right now might be her worst run since she joined the tour
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Old Jul 26th, 2013, 12:42 AM   #4325
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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Originally Posted by goldenlox View Post
If Caro continues the rest of the year like the last 4 months, she's way out of the top 10.
I think it's similar to Jankovic & Ivanovic. Once you have money, its harder to be motivated and focused.
When Caro was playing well she went deep into almost every draw.
Right now might be her worst run since she joined the tour
You are right, but history suggests the upcoming period won't be as bad as the last 4 months. She was terrible on clay and grass last year, and was able to post those results on hard courts at the end of last year.
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Old Jul 26th, 2013, 12:47 AM   #4326
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

I hope its better than the last 4 months. But she's losing to a lot of noncontenders.
I think this year is worse than last year, so far. Last year she beat Serena and lost 46 in the 3rd to Sharapova. Then made a final after that. Looked decent in her Wimbledon loss & Olympics.
looks more fragile this year

edit: I thought 2012 was bad because I was comparing to when she was playing like a #1.
This year, it looks like another step backwards, and we dont know if she can stop the fall. I'd like to see her move forward, but first she has to stop the dropoff
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Old Jul 26th, 2013, 06:40 PM   #4327
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

Have there been any recent news about Caro in Denmark ?
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Old Jul 27th, 2013, 01:49 AM   #4328
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by ozza View Post
Betting odds aren't great for these purposes, but Caro was 2nd favourite for USO 2010, going out in the SF was underachieving using the oddsmakers odds. Don't know where you got Sharapova was expected to make the final from, Wozniacki started as a 57.8% favourite to beat Sharapova in R4. She was in the top 4 favourites for USO 2011, so making SF was only equaling expectations. If we are really using this as our guide then Caro has probably exceeded expectations like once ever in grand slams, and not met expectations at the overwhelming majority. Overall at hard court slams, Caro has still underachieved. She has underachieved every year in Australia using the betting odds except maybe for 2008 (I can't find odds for this far back and no-one I know seems to have them). What the "experts" are saying are the favourites on TV, doesn't always resemble the actual favourites.
A lot of this post is opinion disguised as fact.Taking the statement Betting odds aren't great for these purposes They and a concensus of exper opinion defines expectations. And underferforming is doing worse than expectations.

USO 2009 - F - way exceeded expections.
She made her charge at IW 2010 - but OK I'll start earlier even though it's outside where I had any expectations:

AO 2010 - R4 - 6th in betting odds so OK goes out 1 round ealier. Nevertheless better than at the other tournaments surrounding AO - Sydney R1, Dubai R3

FO: Her rise was halted by that injury at Charleston and she played on the clay tournaments with that injury. Nevertheless QF at FO losing to Fran is NOT underperforming compared to 2nd round exits at the other tournaments on clay.

Wimbledon : R4 - better than the only other tournament on grass - Eastbourne R1 loss.

USO: SF - near the start of a fantastic sequence. Betting odds joint 3rd with Vika behind Kim and Pova who the experts were split in predictions who would win. 3rd equates to SF.
See http://www.tennis-x.com/xblog/2010-08-24/5063.php for the list of odds.

AO 2011: SF- betting odds she 3rd at 8:1. So on that expected to make SF which she did.
See http://www.tennis-x.com/xblog/2011-01-14/6025.php

I consider the beginnings of the slide South started at Miami that year. But let's look at:
USO 2011: SF (lost to Serena) - betting odds 6th at 14:1 not 4th so EXCEEDS expectations
See http://www.tennis-x.com/xblog/2011-08-23/7770.php
And what about those other tournament that you claim she does so much better in. Well the two P5s before USO were 1st round exits whilst Tokyo and Bijing were R3 and QF. And Serena, Pova, Kim weren't playing many of those tournaments. How anyone can consider that USO result as underperforming compared to those other brilliant P5/PM performances is beyond me.

Finally AO 2012 well into her slide. So with no good results at other tournaments - now you expect her to beat Kim - a player she has never ever beaten and that she's an underperformer just at slams because she doesn't?

Caro's whole game was based on playing to her strengths and making a player have to play at their best to beat her. There were many players able to play at their peak better than Caro could at her peak. But it's what % of the time could they play at that peak against Caro. At a slam (a single tournament) - the odds were higher that a few players could do that than that they could sustain that over a year to take the # 1 ranking. Plus at a slam - all the top players who are able to walk are there playing.

It's therefore just common sense that expectations in the form of expert opinion and betting odds is going to be lower than ranking say. It's not underperforming at slams but common sense as to where the realistic expectation from her game was to the best of her ability.

Talking about a so-called underperforming at slams to justify tinkering with her US hardcourt schedule which has given her superb slam results of F SF SF at USO serves no purpose and probably makes her plight worse since New Haven is where she enjoys playing and is probably her best chance of getting a good result nowadays.
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Old Jul 27th, 2013, 07:33 AM   #4329
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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^ Well to be Honest wasn't much of a big Hinigs fan in the 90's I more of a fan of the The Williams Sister, Justine Henin, & Elena D. I just said Hingis might be a problem due too the fact how well Kim & Justine comeback were
I was/am a huge Hings fan, but I agree with ozza that she won't be a factor anymore. You mention Kim & Justine, but they were much younger when they made their comebacks and they hadn't been away for as long as Martina either. With the rigt partner I can imagine her making a successful comeback in doubles because she's very crafty and her natural talent might see her through. But in singles I can't see it happening.
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Old Jul 27th, 2013, 10:16 AM   #4330
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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I was/am a huge Hings fan, but I agree with ozza that she won't be a factor anymore. You mention Kim & Justine, but they were much younger when they made their comebacks and they hadn't been away for as long as Martina either. With the rigt partner I can imagine her making a successful comeback in doubles because she's very crafty and her natural talent might see her through. But in singles I can't see it happening.
I first hought you were talking about Caro never being the player she was (which might be true of course but hope not). Then I realised it was Hingis.

I'd like to see her in doubles though. That could be fun. But not singles please.

In singles - Martina did have a comeback anyway which was what some 6-7 years ago. And that was a yes and no success. Yes I was happy for her she could beat most of the women and make deep runs. But time had moved on even then and she wasn't up to the level of the really top women. So she found out then all she needed to know about how she'd do. Even then I had mixed feelings seeing her then compared to what she was.

Although you can never take away what a player has achieved - I think there is a such a thing as harming or perhaps denting your legacy when a great player makes comebacks. A classic example was in F1 recently when Michael Schumacher who won more world championships than anyone else, was miles better than anone else at the time and peformed miracles even if his car performed like a dog. When he retired he said that he wouldn't come back. But he did. In his comeback - he was nearly always outperpormed by his teammte in the same car, and his temmate then wasn't considered then one of the elite. Yet he insisted that he was actually a better driver than he was in his heyday. That was simply pure denial of reality.
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Old Jul 27th, 2013, 10:23 AM   #4331
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

Quote:
Originally Posted by terjw View Post
A lot of this post is opinion disguised as fact.Taking the statement Betting odds aren't great for these purposes They and a concensus of exper opinion defines expectations. And underferforming is doing worse than expectations.

USO 2009 - F - way exceeded expections.
She made her charge at IW 2010 - but OK I'll start earlier even though it's outside where I had any expectations:

AO 2010 - R4 - 6th in betting odds so OK goes out 1 round ealier. Nevertheless better than at the other tournaments surrounding AO - Sydney R1, Dubai R3

FO: Her rise was halted by that injury at Charleston and she played on the clay tournaments with that injury. Nevertheless QF at FO losing to Fran is NOT underperforming compared to 2nd round exits at the other tournaments on clay.

Wimbledon : R4 - better than the only other tournament on grass - Eastbourne R1 loss.

USO: SF - near the start of a fantastic sequence. Betting odds joint 3rd with Vika behind Kim and Pova who the experts were split in predictions who would win. 3rd equates to SF.
See http://www.tennis-x.com/xblog/2010-08-24/5063.php for the list of odds.

AO 2011: SF- betting odds she 3rd at 8:1. So on that expected to make SF which she did.
See http://www.tennis-x.com/xblog/2011-01-14/6025.php

I consider the beginnings of the slide South started at Miami that year. But let's look at:
USO 2011: SF (lost to Serena) - betting odds 6th at 14:1 not 4th so EXCEEDS expectations
See http://www.tennis-x.com/xblog/2011-08-23/7770.php
And what about those other tournament that you claim she does so much better in. Well the two P5s before USO were 1st round exits whilst Tokyo and Bijing were R3 and QF. And Serena, Pova, Kim weren't playing many of those tournaments. How anyone can consider that USO result as underperforming compared to those other brilliant P5/PM performances is beyond me.

Finally AO 2012 well into her slide. So with no good results at other tournaments - now you expect her to beat Kim - a player she has never ever beaten and that she's an underperformer just at slams because she doesn't?

Caro's whole game was based on playing to her strengths and making a player have to play at their best to beat her. There were many players able to play at their peak better than Caro could at her peak. But it's what % of the time could they play at that peak against Caro. At a slam (a single tournament) - the odds were higher that a few players could do that than that they could sustain that over a year to take the # 1 ranking. Plus at a slam - all the top players who are able to walk are there playing.

It's therefore just common sense that expectations in the form of expert opinion and betting odds is going to be lower than ranking say. It's not underperforming at slams but common sense as to where the realistic expectation from her game was to the best of her ability.

Talking about a so-called underperforming at slams to justify tinkering with her US hardcourt schedule which has given her superb slam results of F SF SF at USO serves no purpose and probably makes her plight worse since New Haven is where she enjoys playing and is probably her best chance of getting a good result nowadays.
These discussions are like Caro has already retired, but since she seems to have lost the fight & focus she used to have, I'll give my opinion on USO's F, SF, SF:
She got lucky the QF Oudin, SF Wickmayer. Kim was playing Serena in the other semi.
It was a lopsided draw. The 2 semis were okay, nothing bad, not underachieveing, but Vera was a winnable semi.

Overall, if thats it - those 3 and the loss with matchpoint against Li, I would say she didnt underperform, but didnt play her absolute best either.
But she had other majors where she did underperform, like Hantuchova loss, so overall I would say her slam results were about average. But a short window where she was a contender, and she never took advantage like she did in many good fields outside majors
I dont think she deserves criticism for those slam results. But the fall off after wards was strange. The more I watch Rory blow up his career, I can see having him around was not good.
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Old Jul 27th, 2013, 11:13 AM   #4332
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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Originally Posted by terjw View Post
A lot of this post is opinion disguised as fact.Taking the statement Betting odds aren't great for these purposes They and a concensus of exper opinion defines expectations. And underferforming is doing worse than expectations.

...

Talking about a so-called underperforming at slams to justify tinkering with her US hardcourt schedule which has given her superb slam results of F SF SF at USO serves no purpose and probably makes her plight worse since New Haven is where she enjoys playing and is probably her best chance of getting a good result nowadays.
(Warning: I know some of you hate betting talk, if you don't like it, don't read this post )

The problem with this is it's taking bookmaker odds, and one particular bookmaker at that (who are also known for being one of the worst). Bookmakers odds aren't the true market value, they aren't the true expectations. The Asian markets are the true market value, they are the true expectations (to an extent, in tennis it's nearly always true, in stuff like football there are other factors, I will only give explanation if asked though because it's irrelevant to this). Contrary to what bookmakers claim, the amount of odds making they actually do these days is nearly zero, they pretty much only get involved in pricing things up initially. After that they just move their prices in line with what is going on in Asia, and align appropriately to what they want to achieve (explained below).

Sharapova is a popular bet with bookmakers thus they undercut her price massively. You see this with current USO odds. Sharapova is best price 7/1 with the bookmakers, Azarenka is best price 6/1 with the bookmakers. In full market odds Azarenka is trading at around 8/1, Sharapova is trading is trading at 12.5/1. Notice how much more of an edge the bookmakers have taken on Sharapova, because she is a more popular bet, thus people will back her at any price. They want to reduce their liabilities, this is why bookmakers will consistently put up crap odds on Kvitova, Robson etc. On the flip side look at Serena's USO odds. 10/11 best price at bookmakers, incidentally this is around the exact price she is trading in markets. You may ask isn't Serena a popular bet too, why are they taking next to no edge whatsoever opposing her. The answer is because the vast majority of bookmakers target audience don't back 10/11 outright odds over a 2 week period. They want a "bit of value" so look elsewhere.

You can see the very flaw in the USO 2010 prices. Sharapova 7/2, Wozniacki 7/1. They played in R4, prices were Wozniacki 1.73-2.35 Sharapova. It's blindingly obvious from the form guide going in why Wozniacki was a bigger favourite, but you have to remember how bookmakers operate. Bookmakers aren't really in the business contrary to what they tell you of taking serious bets. They will never take someone plonking down like 10k on on of these outrights. They want the thousands of people who will come to a grand slam, and bet like 25 quid on someone "for interest", to these people form guide isn't really of interest, they just want to back Sharapova because they know her, she's hot, whatever.

Anyway enough of that. The reason I say betting odds aren't great for these purposes, because if you are using this, you are getting into the territory of Caro was never the best player in the world, never actually expected to win majors etc. The truth is though if you'd taken Caro's average odds to win grand slams by now, expectation would dictate she should have won at least one, so in that sense she has still underachieved. By the same principle, her averaged odds extrapolated to the future from this point will say she should win none.

A couple of quick points on your individual event points. "Wimbledon : R4 - better than the only other tournament on grass - Eastbourne R1 loss." The Wimbledon odds don't pay much attention to what goes on in Eastbourne. Radwanska, Kvitova lost early this year, their prices barely moved as a result. Eastbourne is highly unpredictable every year, and too many of the best players are missing for it to be truly used as a guide.

Pinning the exact point where her decline started is debatable. It tends to be thought of somewhere around Roland Garros 2011-Canada 2011 though. The USO 2011 odds you posted are slightly flawed on top of the points posted above. They were taken before she won New Haven, late money will have come in for the world number 1 winning the week before a grand slam. I have her starting 4th favourite, but I also think my odds are taken after the draw was made (Azarenka had a terrible draw here).

On this point: "Finally AO 2012 well into her slide. So with no good results at other tournaments - now you expect her to beat Kim - a player she has never ever beaten and that she's an underperformer just at slams because she doesn't?" Clijsters was very beatable here. Point is often made how Caro had it hard, she had to always beat one of Clijsters or Serena on her way. What are we hoping for then? That she just gets a dream draw with zero obstacles in her way? Rarely going to happen. Azarenka also had to beat Clijsters to win her first grand slam title here, Caro had the same opportunity here. The betting odds for this were pretty much 50:50, and Caro had her chances to drag it into a 3rd when Kim was looking tired, but she didn't.

On your final point. It still ultimately hasn't brought her the ultimate prize. You try things, you tinker, trying to find that extra couple of %. The schedule completely backfired on her last year, it likely played a major role in her going into the US Open injured. You can't just ignore that last year she went out R1 on top of the good results in the years prior. On top of this Caro isn't in the position anymore where she should be passing up easy ranking points. Look at the draw in Stanford this week, far softer than the draw in New Haven. You of course have to balance these things out, but something needs to be looked at as to why Caro is joint 28th in terms of grand slam points earned in the past year (she was in a similar low position last year), because for a player of her calibre that's simply not good enough.
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Old Jul 27th, 2013, 11:29 AM   #4333
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

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Originally Posted by Chrissie-fan View Post
I was/am a huge Hings fan, but I agree with ozza that she won't be a factor anymore. You mention Kim & Justine, but they were much younger when they made their comebacks and they hadn't been away for as long as Martina either. With the right partner I can imagine her making a successful comeback in doubles because she's very crafty and her natural talent might see her through. But in singles I can't see it happening.
Genuinely in shock at the number of people who think she will just waltz back into the top 10 with ease. See the poll here: http://www.tennisforum.com/showthread.php?t=572241. But also the original thread "announcing" her comeback is full of people talking about her returning top 5, winning grand slams etc. If this ever happens, in my opinion it will be very short lived, because I just don't see Hingis content to be a journey woman, which in my mind she almost certainly would be.
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Old Jul 27th, 2013, 11:29 AM   #4334
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

Standord was a fluke because Serena, Vika, Maria, Errani all lost early at Wimbledon.
The whole YEC field could have been there this week, but some were injured, some took appearance fees for clay.
Just circumstance. Looking for a soft spot isnt going to help her. She needs to get better. She's gotten a lot worse and most of it is mental. She is still healthy, she just starts slow and doesnt finish. Its just weak mentally
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Old Jul 27th, 2013, 01:30 PM   #4335
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 6

I'm a little baffled by all the talk about whether or not Caro underperforms at majors; she has not played to her seeding for FIFTEEN majors in a row (not since US Open 2009) and she was the top seed for SIX majors in a row without even reaching the final! Both of those stats have to be some kind of record. Also, if you are going to apologize or make excuses for her grand slam record, then you really also have to buy into the narrative that she did not deserve to be number 1. In any case, lets just hope she starts playing some better tennis before she completely falls off the radar and no one cares about her results at the slams or anywhere else anymore.
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