[AYUMI-GOAT]

Originally Posted by SilverPersian

Oudin won her only match with Keys in straight sets, and that was last year

Keys has improved so much since then though and look at the shape of Oudin now
Also Maddie has a good backhand and is a very good ball striker and maybe the top spiny balls Sam gives might put it in Keys hitting zone

[Adomoose]

Originally Posted by stromatolite

I think this draw is about as good or as bad as could have been expected, to be honest the ways Sam has played this year I don't think the draw matters very much. Not overly worried about Keys. She's an up and comer for sure, but I don't think she's that good (yet). My main worry is that Sam has a bye so will come into that match cold.

If she can get past her first match then she's got a decent chance of reaching the quarters I think, which would be a great result given the year she's had so far. But one match at a time. Guess she won't be playing before about Friday anyway.

I agree. The draw she has been given means Sam should reach the semis as all players in that section are beatable. The main factor is which Sam will turn up. Results in this tourney are in her hands win or lose.

[stromatolite]

^On paper Madison had a very good Aussie season, but I think it's too early to say she's systematically that much better than she was in October.

All kinds of strange results happen at the start of the year, so I wouldn't read too much into her Aussie results. Her best win was against a hopelessly out of form Safarova, and she pushed a fatigued Na Li to 3 sets.

Bottom line: if Sam plays well she should beat Maddy. If she doesn't, pretty well anybody could beat her.

[annetcl]

Originally Posted by stromatolite

^On paper Madison had a very good Aussie season, but I think it's too early to say she's systematically that much better than she was in October.

All kinds of strange results happen at the start of the year, so I wouldn't read too much into her Aussie results. Her best win was against a hopelessly out of form Safarova, and she pushed a fatigued Na Li to 3 sets.

Bottom line: if Sam plays well she should beat Maddy. If she doesn't, pretty well anybody could beat her.

I was a bit worried about Keys when I first heard about Sam's draw but then again - you are right about Sam being her own worse enemy. She was awful last year at IW against Nadia so hopefully that's once off. Hopefully she gets a few good days of training last week and is ready to give this a good shot. Once she gets past Keys her draw is definitely decent. With her playing an up and coming american hopefully it would be on a court with tv/streaming coverage - staring at livescores will be torture!

[SilverPersian]

^I don't think TV coverage of Indian Wells/Miami begins until the weekend/third round, so Sam and Madison/Melanie could very well be on centre court AND we could have to follow over livescoreboard

[bertisonline]

Originally Posted by stromatolite

^On paper Madison had a very good Aussie season, but I think it's too early to say she's systematically that much better than she was in October.

All kinds of strange results happen at the start of the year, so I wouldn't read too much into her Aussie results. Her best win was against a hopelessly out of form Safarova, and she pushed a fatigued Na Li to 3 sets.

Bottom line: if Sam plays well she should beat Maddy. If she doesn't, pretty well anybody could beat her.

I feel like the IW surface does not perfectly suit Sam’s game. That would explain why she has never had good results at IW even in “good” years. Sam's great awakening is generally Miami and/or immediately after… Charleston. Generally does not mean automatically, but as history repeats itself most of the time with Sam, Maddy is probably not the main factor...

I will probably scoreboard the match like Annetcl!…

B.

[stromatolite]

^You could be right about the surface Bertrand, but then again she did reach the SF in 2010, so it's not as if she can't play there.

I do think she underperforms in PMs, which really hurts her a lot in rankings. Last year she managed just 475 points from IW, Miami, Madrid and Beijing combined. Just playing to her seeding would have netted her 1000, so that's pretty seriously under par, and unlike other tournaments these are results she can't replace.

In general I think the surface only matters a lot of Sam lets it, i.e. gets it into her head that she can't play on it. If she believed in herself enough I think she could play on a stack of old mattresses if she had to

[annetcl]

^ Sam seems to think the courts at IW really suit her game. I guess that explains the good results in 2010. But it does not really explain 2011/12.

We’re coming up to the spring hardcourt events in Indian Wells and Miami. Do you feel the slow hardcourts suit your game?
I really like playing the next tournaments.

"The conditions in Indian Wells are light and I feel suit my natural style of play. I also feel Miami does too even though it’s much more humid there – I’m pretty used to that kind of weather being from the Gold Coast and spending a bit of time Tampa which is only a few hours from Miami."

Based on Sam's comments seems IW is better for her than Miami? - humidity usually means she needs to work alot harder to make the ball turn as the balls pick up moisture and become heavy as the game goes on.

As ever, Sam is just so unpredictable you never know when she will hit top form or slump

[bertisonline]

Originally Posted by annetcl

^ Sam seems to think the courts at IW really suit her game. I guess that explains the good results in 2010. But it does not really explain 2011/12.

We’re coming up to the spring hardcourt events in Indian Wells and Miami. Do you feel the slow hardcourts suit your game?
I really like playing the next tournaments.

"The conditions in Indian Wells are light and I feel suit my natural style of play. I also feel Miami does too even though it’s much more humid there – I’m pretty used to that kind of weather being from the Gold Coast and spending a bit of time Tampa which is only a few hours from Miami."

Based on Sam's comments seems IW is better for her than Miami? - humidity usually means she needs to work alot harder to make the ball turn as the balls pick up moisture and become heavy as the game goes on.

As ever, Sam is just so unpredictable you never know when she will hit top form or slump

She is suffering really more in Miami: so she feels home, don't consider it too lightly.
B.

[stromatolite]

Originally Posted by bertisonline

She is suffering really more in Miami: so she feels home, don't consider it too lightly.
B.

Maybe the solution is to pay a group of protesters to turn up with "Aussies go home" and "aren't you back in Australia already?" banners, so there's no risk of her feeling at home.

Then all we need to do is figure out how to transform Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, so that they look like Osaka, Charleston, Paris or NY, at least in January.

[stromatolite]

Streams start in R2 on Friday, so with any luck we might get to see Sam play:

http://www.bnpparibasopen.com/TV/2013-TV-Schedule.aspx

[SilverPersian]

Originally Posted by stromatolite

Streams start in R2 on Friday, so with any luck we might get to see Sam play:

http://www.bnpparibasopen.com/TV/2013-TV-Schedule.aspx

Good news

Raysur take on BMS/Mirza in their first round match, who are the number eight seeds.

Keys/Oudin aren't playing Wednesday, which probably means Sam's first singles match might not be until Saturday

[stromatolite]

^Doubles MD starts today as well, so there's a pretty good chance that Raysur will get their match in before Sam's R2 singles. That would give her a chance to get a bit of a feel for the courts.

Raysur already beat BMirza handily in Doha, so that's a good draw first up. Potential clash with Casey and Kimiko on R2 though

[aussie_fan]

Originally Posted by SilverPersian

which probably means Sam's first singles match might not be until Saturday

Good news, that means there will be a chance of a stream

[SilverPersian]

Originally Posted by aussie_fan

Good news, that means there will be a chance of a stream

I'm struggling between wanting her to play right now and wanting to actually see her play.

Delayed gratification is a bitch