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Old Sep 9th, 2013, 01:28 AM   #3856
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Re: *Vika Azarenka Cheering Thread* - Vikalume 4.

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Originally Posted by Patrick345 View Post
Having a better serve takes care of the conditioning problem, but Vika had a higher average 2nd serve speed than Serena today. She won more points on 2nd serve than Serena, despite her own return being sub-standard. Any way you look at this, despite the great 2nd set comeback you also have to say that if Vika played at the level of Doha/Cincy she likely wins this match as easily as Stosur did two years. Thatīs the sad truth underneath all the bravery and drama. She could never get her own nerves under control. This hasnīt been OlympicRena. Vika staggered her with the Doha/Cincy results and she failed to deliver the KO blow today.
But if Vika served every match like today there wouldn't be much of a problem. Outside of the game with 3 double faults in it, it was adequate enough. But Vika doesn't serve like that every match.

It's the serve that imo has dragged her into a lot more closer matches than before. Vika has stopped steamrollering through draws early on in tournaments recently. Part of this is because so many of her matches turn into break fests. It makes her matches look very messy at times.

Her results are interesting, because she drops a number of sets in matches she shouldn't, but she tends to do it in a fashion where you never fear she's actually going to lose the match. She drops a set, but she never looks in danger of dropping the match several times. But I wish she would go back to steamrollering through draws more.
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Old Sep 9th, 2013, 01:36 AM   #3857
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Re: *Vika Azarenka Cheering Thread* - Vikalume 4.

Agree. She doesn't need a great serve but a good serve. She is a rhythm girl, every part needs to work together. The problem is now other players would attack this relatively weak component because the other parts are super solid. What I see is when she is focused the aerve is solid, when she tenses up a bit it becomes a liability
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Old Sep 9th, 2013, 01:38 AM   #3858
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Re: *Vika Azarenka Cheering Thread* - Vikalume 4.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hurricanejeanne View Post
I haven't read through everything about her serve, but honestly she's never going to have a huge serve, but what she has had when she plays well is a consistent well placed serve that does get her free points but also gives her easy replies to attack.

For some reason, the serve has been disjointed of late. If she can regain her rhythm on it, she'll be in better position to win matches like this. Even against Serena.
The opponent get used to her serve. She has basically stopped using the wide serve on deuce, because the opponents are so ready for it. She tried it once against Pennetta and Pennetta immediately hit a cc fh winner. The same with Serena today. Itīs not the pace, itīs that is such an "easy to read- nothing on it-comfortable to return" shot. Vika is in the top 10 for 1st serve percentage in 2013. Here is her company: Errani, Niculescu, KDK, Zheng, Beck, Wozniacki, Cadantu, Halep and Suarez Navarro. So basically the who is who of crap serves. She is not in the top 10 of service games held percentage, despite the high 1st serve percentage and despite being in the top 10 in breakpoints saved this season. So sadly this could be even worse than it already is. That keep in mind is the 2nd best player in the world that is superior to everybody not named Serena off the ground.

But you accept her serve for what it is at the moment. Statistically today, it was probably above her average for the season and against Serena. Her ROS win percentage was 5% below her average in the previous three matches against Serena this season, 10% below it in the 1st set.

I think if Vika had a top 10 serve of the WTA Tour, sheīd be a lock to win 8-10 Slams regardless of Serena or Kvitova or whoever else might appear in the next five year. As it is 4-5 seem likely, but nothing is guaranteed. A lot depends on how long Serena keeps going. If Serena can keep her level for 2-3 more years, who knows what kind of talent has developed in that timeframe.
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Old Sep 9th, 2013, 01:44 AM   #3859
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Re: *Vika Azarenka Cheering Thread* - Vikalume 4.

Her serve isn't bad at all, that's not the issue. The problem is the amount of double faults. In general today she served quite well, but it's times like the game with three double faults and the amount that she was hitting earlier this tournament that are worrying.
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Old Sep 9th, 2013, 01:47 AM   #3860
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Re: *Vika Azarenka Cheering Thread* - Vikalume 4.

It was written that she would lose because you know : I won't go with my diatribe but since the beginning I suspect the WS and mostly Serena to be on doping ! Maybe a lame excuse but did you really think she had a chance ? It's like on the Spa-Francorchamps race track : having a ferrari and loads of Lada going for the title : it doesn't work ! You don't have to be sad : Cheat won again : As long there's no control like in cycling : SW always will get away with it : I refuse and I boycott to see any matches involving SW since 15 years ! No need to be sad at all : USTA and WTA wanted their SW to win... SW being the greatest tennis player make me laugh : she has no real opposition since the beginning of her career except at times Hingis ( should stop licking SW arse ), Henin : that are the only two I can remember having her game in mind ! Victoria be a woman : dump RedFOO, stop licking FAKE SW arse because it's ridiculous only to be on the right side : at the end you are punished ! Glad I boycotted that US Open ! Being that strong at 32 years old when someone as Federer at the nearly same age declines : you can ask yourselves question, don't you ? Embolism two years ago but doing as nothing happened : WAKE UP, Tennis fans !
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Old Sep 9th, 2013, 01:47 AM   #3861
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Re: *Vika Azarenka Cheering Thread* - Vikalume 4.

I have to say, something it is interesting is that I'm MORE sad now that I've had time to process the match. Right after she lost I was obviously sad, but I was still so proud of the second set and could see it coming in the third. Now that I've reflected on the match, it's good that she stepped up her game overall and was able to get a set (better than I expected, honestly) but still sad she didn't win the third set. Also, I don't really think she was out of gas in the third (at least not physically) but just the mental hangover of the effort it took to win the second led to a drop in play again and Williams played very well.

I'm very proud of her getting to the final and making a great match, but it was definitely a winnable match, so the loss hurts .
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Old Sep 9th, 2013, 01:47 AM   #3862
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Re: *Vika Azarenka Cheering Thread* - Vikalume 4.

Vika gained tweeter fans from this.

She will win a US Open SOON. I guarantee it.
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Old Sep 9th, 2013, 01:54 AM   #3863
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Re: *Vika Azarenka Cheering Thread* - Vikalume 4.

That stupid attempt to reach a stupid meaningless wrong-footer from somebody like Koehler. I so donīt give a shit what others say she is not losing to Flipkens, Kvitova, Bartoli or Lisicki. That would make this loss, so much easier to accept. If you win the 1st Slam and end the season with one itīs always somewhat meh. Maybe she can win the YEC. At least sheīll not be overplayed and well-rested this time.
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Old Sep 9th, 2013, 02:01 AM   #3864
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Re: *Vika Azarenka Cheering Thread* - Vikalume 4.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick345 View Post
The opponent get used to her serve. She has basically stopped using the wide serve on deuce, because the opponents are so ready for it. She tried it once against Pennetta and Pennetta immediately hit a cc fh winner. The same with Serena today. Itīs not the pace, itīs that is such an "easy to read- nothing on it-comfortable to return" shot. Vika is in the top 10 for 1st serve percentage in 2013. Here is her company: Errani, Niculescu, KDK, Zheng, Beck, Wozniacki, Cadantu, Halep and Suarez Navarro. So basically the who is who of crap serves. She is not in the top 10 of service games held percentage, despite the high 1st serve percentage and despite being in the top 10 in breakpoints saved this season. So sadly this could be even worse than it already is. That keep in mind is the 2nd best player in the world that is superior to everybody not named Serena off the ground.

But you accept her serve for what it is at the moment. Statistically today, it was probably above her average for the season and against Serena. Her ROS win percentage was 5% below her average in the previous three matches against Serena this season, 10% below it in the 1st set.

I think if Vika had a top 10 serve of the WTA Tour, sheīd be a lock to win 8-10 Slams regardless of Serena or Kvitova or whoever else might appear in the next five year. As it is 4-5 seem likely, but nothing is guaranteed. A lot depends on how long Serena keeps going. If Serena can keep her level for 2-3 more years, who knows what kind of talent has developed in that timeframe.
Her ROS has always set her aside from other players, it's what makes her special. But it was never dialed in during this tournament. Sometimes it would show flashes of clicking in, but she never seemed to be as sharp with it as she usually is. That's probably part of the reason her whole game was out of sync.

I wish she could disguise her serve more, and mix it up more. That would definitely help her, I think.

Well, I guess all we can do now is hope she rebounds for the fall season, find some rhythm, and finishes the year solid. She's probably already thinking about defending Melbourne.

And yes, if she hadn't fallen at Wimbledon, she would have won that after Serena lost. There's no doubt in my mind.
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Old Sep 9th, 2013, 02:03 AM   #3865
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Re: *Vika Azarenka Cheering Thread* - Vikalume 4.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick345 View Post
The opponent get used to her serve. She has basically stopped using the wide serve on deuce, because the opponents are so ready for it. She tried it once against Pennetta and Pennetta immediately hit a cc fh winner. The same with Serena today. Itīs not the pace, itīs that is such an "easy to read- nothing on it-comfortable to return" shot. Vika is in the top 10 for 1st serve percentage in 2013. Here is her company: Errani, Niculescu, KDK, Zheng, Beck, Wozniacki, Cadantu, Halep and Suarez Navarro. So basically the who is who of crap serves. She is not in the top 10 of service games held percentage, despite the high 1st serve percentage and despite being in the top 10 in breakpoints saved this season. So sadly this could be even worse than it already is. That keep in mind is the 2nd best player in the world that is superior to everybody not named Serena off the ground.
Her figures have declined in both these departments recently though. Both first serve % and service games won (which she was in the top 10 for until very recently). These stats are misleading though, because being in the top 10 service games won doesn't mean Vika has a good serve, she was in that list despite her serve. Really given the rest of her game she should be aiming at winning 75%+ of her service games for the year. I don't even think she'd need a particularly great serve to do that, I look at someone like Kirilenko, if Vika had a serve like that she probably would win 75%+ of her service games. Given Vika's height, she should get more out of her serve.

This is from before the US Open (it will have got worse since), but this paints some of the picture of the battle Vika has against her serve.

Top 10 Aces/Double Faults Differential
Williams +247
Radwanska +38
Wozniacki -10
Sharapova -25
Kerber -41
Errani -50
Jankovic -57
Li -77
Kvitova -77
Azarenka -126

This doesn't give you a full picture because just because you have a low negative differential doesn't mean you have a good serve, but that is a huge negative in Vika's column. This stat probably highlights Vika's real problem though.

2nd Serve Points Won
Williams 51.8%
Radwanska 50.4%
Wozniacki 47.6%
Li 47.4%
Kerber 47.4%
Sharapova 47.3%
Kvitova 46.4%
Errani 45.4%
Jankovic 45.1%
Azarenka 42.4%

Vika should never be last in this list ever.

Last edited by ozza : Sep 9th, 2013 at 12:10 PM.
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Old Sep 9th, 2013, 02:14 AM   #3866
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Re: *Vika Azarenka Cheering Thread* - Vikalume 4.

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Originally Posted by hurricanejeanne View Post
Her ROS has always set her aside from other players, it's what makes her special. But it was never dialed in during this tournament.
No the horrible part is that it was dialed in, especially the last tgwo rounds and in the end it lost her the final. Not the serve that had been shit all tournament.

Of course you have to adjust for the level of opponent, but I already covered the comparison for the previous three Rena matches, so here is the tournament breakdown:

Serena: ROS points won 37%, Serve points won 55% (61% 1st set, 55% 2nd set)
Pennetta: ROS points won 67%, Serve points won 47%
Hantuchova: ROS points won 63%, Serve points won 53%
Ivanovic: ROS points won 54%, Serve points won 49%
Cornet: ROS points won 40%, Serve points won 71%
Wozniak: ROS points won 70%, Serve points won 42%
Pfizenmaier: ROS points won 61%, Serve points won 68%

She almost won as many points on serve in 1st set against Serena as she did in the double bagel against Pfizenmaier and lost it.

I need to stop. This is getting too depressing.
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Old Sep 9th, 2013, 02:22 AM   #3867
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Re: *Vika Azarenka Cheering Thread* - Vikalume 4.

I'm excited for the rest of the year. I'm not sure she'll put as much effort into it as she did for Cincinnati and the US Open (and can't blame her if she doesn't as I think she must be mentally tired) but she has a chance to do very well and potentially pick up points in Tokyo/YEC and potentially defend Beijing . She could also definitely beat Williams again.
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Old Sep 9th, 2013, 02:24 AM   #3868
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Re: *Vika Azarenka Cheering Thread* - Vikalume 4.

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Originally Posted by ozza View Post
Her figures have declined in both these departments recently though. Both first serve % and service games won (which she was in the top 10 for until very recently). These stats are misleading though, because being in the top 10 service games won doesn't mean Vika has a good serve, she was in that list despite her serve. Really given the rest of her game she should be aiming at winning 75%+ of her service games for the year. I don't even think she'd need a particularly great serve to do that, I look at someone like Kirilenko, if Vika had a serve like that she probably would win 75%+ of her service games. Given Vika's height, she should get more out of her serve.

This is from before the US Open (it will have got worse since), but this paints some of the picture of the battle Vika has against her serve.

Top 10 Aces/Double Faults Differential
Williams +247
Radwanska +38
Wozniacki -10
Sharapova -25
Kerber -41
Errani -50
Jankovic -57
Li -77
Kvitova -77
Azarenka -126

This doesn't give you a full picture because just because you have a low negative differential doesn't mean you have a good serve, but that is a huge negative in Vika's column. This stat probably highlights Vika's real problem though.

2nd Serve Points Won
Williams 51.8%
Radwanska 50.4%
Wozniacki 47.6%
Li 47.4%
Kerber 47.4%
Sharapova 47.3%
Kvitova 46.4%
Errani 45.4%
Azarenka 42.4%

Vika should never be last in this list ever.
No doubt. Iīm not going to argue that her serve couldnīt do with any sort of improvement be it variability with better angles, more kick, disguise or simply power: something, anything. But that is for days, when Serena plays near to her best. Today Serena was beatable even with Vikaīs serve. Obviously having a serve also makes it easier to beat sub-par Serena, but it wasnīt a day that made me think: If you want to beat Serena you need to learn how to serve. Today it was that she wasnīt authorative or assertive on ROS or during the rallies. I absolutely loved the open racquet fh down the line and it surprised Serena a few times, because she didnīt expect that shot, but too often she just played the balls back to Serena.
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Old Sep 9th, 2013, 02:30 AM   #3869
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Re: *Vika Azarenka Cheering Thread* - Vikalume 4.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hurricanejeanne View Post
I haven't read through everything about her serve, but honestly she's never going to have a huge serve, but what she has had when she plays well is a consistent well placed serve that does get her free points but also gives her easy replies to attack.

For some reason, the serve has been disjointed of late. If she can regain her rhythm on it, she'll be in better position to win matches like this. Even against Serena.
I think if she managed to get her serve to consistently hit at least 165kmh, that would go a long way.

In addition, the disappointment of this loss should be erased if she beats Serena at the YEC (which is a very likely meeting). A positive you can take is that we're no longer at the stage where we hope she's not going to be double breadsticked, but at a stage where we believe that she should be winning a good portion of their meetings.
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Old Sep 9th, 2013, 02:33 AM   #3870
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Re: *Vika Azarenka Cheering Thread* - Vikalume 4.

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Originally Posted by Muttley View Post
Did you think Serena was doping a few weeks ago when Vika beat her?
I think it's best you ignore someone who makes baseless accusations like that.
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