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Old May 6th, 2012, 04:59 PM   #1966
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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Originally Posted by bruce goose View Post
G-lox is correct in stating that Caroline looks out of form with her playing style,but doing the same thing while expecting different results is how Einstein defined insanity...being the sharp gal that she is,Caro knew that she needed to do stuff like improving her serve if she wanted to be assured of taking those final steps to a GS trophy
Well, the line of reasoning applied to the situation of one or two years ago is that there were only two or three players around who Caroline was a clear underdog against (Serena, Kim and Venus) and that those players wouldn't be around forever. So from that perspective it was quite logical to assume that if the Caro of that time kept on knocking on the door that there was a decent chance that it would open eventually. But since that time other young players have stepped up to the plate making it a different ballgame. I'm of the opinion that Caroline shouldn't give up the game that has made her a success to begin with but that she should add little things to it that give her when needed some more options. I think most of us agree about that actually. It's finding the right balance that's the hard and to Caroline probably the confusing part. But let's hope that she gets it right eventually.
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Old May 6th, 2012, 05:06 PM   #1967
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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Originally Posted by Chrissie-fan View Post
Well, the line of reasoning applied to the situation of one or two years ago is that there were only two or three players around who Caroline was a clear underdog against (Serena, Kim and Venus) and that those players wouldn't be around forever. So from that perspective it was quite logical to assume that if the Caro of that time kept on knocking on the door that there was a decent chance that it would open eventually. But since that time other young players have stepped up to the plate making it a different ballgame. I'm of the opinion that Caroline shouldn't give up the game that has made her a success to begin with but that she should add little things to it that give her when needed some more options. I think most of us agree about that actually. It's finding the right balance that's the hard and to Caroline probably the confusing part. But let's hope that she gets it right eventually.
As usual,I really appreciate your input,but I think that it was only some FANS,and not Caroline herself,who thought that there'd be clear sailing when Kim and the WS retired.This would assume that no one else was going to rise up prior to the legends' retirements,and I'd be very surprised if Caroline had such a naive approach...I don't believe she did
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Old May 6th, 2012, 05:16 PM   #1968
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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Originally Posted by bruce goose View Post
As usual,I really appreciate your input,but I think that it was only some FANS,and not Caroline herself,who thought that there'd be clear sailing when Kim and the WS retired.This would assume that no one else was going to rise up prior to the legends' retirements,and I'd be very surprised if Caroline had such a naive approach...I don't believe she did
I never believed that myself, actually. It sounds logical considering the situation back then, but circumstances change all the time in tennis (or any sport for that matter). I at the time considered 2010/2011 her "window of opportunity" with Serena, Venus and Kim being regularly injured and nobody else from her contemporaries having yet made the big jump. But it was inevitable that that would happen sooner or later.
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Old May 6th, 2012, 05:24 PM   #1969
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

Yes, I agree that it was silly to assume that all Caroline had to do was wait until certain players retired and then she would comfortably take over winning the slams. There are always going to be young players coming up and as we have seen in recent years with Francesca Schiavone, Na Li and Sam Stosur older players are playing some of their best tennis later in their careers.

I also agree that fundamental change to her core game is not the way to go but there is plenty of room for her to get much better. Imagine if she ever turns her serve into a weapon, develops a more effective net game and "fixes" her forehand. All three of those things are very possible and would make her a much better player.
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Old May 6th, 2012, 07:30 PM   #1970
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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The only big flaw with your mathematical probability arguments is that the kind of success we're hoping for depends on MUCH more than pure luck.I could cite many similar examples from several different sports(and for any JJ fans here,you should recall my high respect for her H2H vs. the WS...and that I'm not her basher),but let's look at the Henin-Jankovic matchup.Most would agree that there wasn't any enormous talent gap between them when JJ was at her best...and there were inevitably some days when Justine wasn't playing at her top level...yet Jelena NEVER beat her(if I'm not mistaken,they played at least a dozen times).Many of the matches were competitive;Jelena was tough enough to make it close but she couldn't ever close it out despite having MORE than enough 'rolls of the dice' to get the right result.
You can't say Mathematics doesn't apply just because of the JJ vs Henin sequence - which was 10 attempts not a dozen:
  1. Firstly - Mathematics gives a probability not a certainty and yes you can gamble against the odds and win a few times. But in the long run you will lose even if you have success a few times. And 10 occasions on the trot is too low a number to be so unusual if it is against the odds (see later).
    .
  2. Secondly - 7 of those matches were in 2007 where Justine completely dominated. Not since Serena in 2002 had we had this. there was a huge difference between her and the rest that year. She only lost 4 times - winning over 90% of the time.
A low initial % has to be assigned to beat Justine in a single encounter in her matches against her that year. And then a figure could be derived for 7 occasions. But saying that Mathematics doesn't come into it just because of what transpired on that one occasion was probably against the odds (depending on initial % assigned) is on a par with believing you can always get away with jumping a red light in a very busy road because you've done it a few times without being hit and that the odds aren't building up that one day you won't be so lucky the more you do it.

And now let's move on to JJ vs Kim. JJ couldn't beat "the Belgians" - not just Justine. She'd gone 9+5=14 matches always losing to Kim or Justine. Fifteenth time - 6th time against Kim - she won. Then she lost 1 more to Kim and 1 more to Justine. But she gave herself 17 chances against those two and she did win one of them eventally. The fact she kept giving herself chances to play them - she won 1 in the end. And that is a Mathematical principle.

Going on further. Luck is an overused term. Who really wants to hear anyone wailing about bad luck in real life. And easy draws is wailingb about good luck someone had and therefore someone else din't have. There's a phrase that "champions make their own luck" and it applies in all sports. It's basis is steeped in Mathematics and what amounts to always being there to take advantage of it when the breaks go your way. That's the basis of my saying Caro needing to be at SF in a slam at AO and USO all the time. I didn't mention RG and Wimbledon because Caro never demonstarted capabilty of making it there in her heyday. But AO and USO she did.

Michael Schumacher in his heyday (not his comeback as a shadow of his former self) - I'd see him win a race he didn't deserve when the leader ran out of fuel and had to go in for a splash and dash. Lucky? - Yes. But he was the one there to take advatage of it.

Caro in USO 2009. I wish DIAH would tell all those top Russians in Caro's half that it was an easy draw. And tell Sveta it was a cakewalk draw as well after the way she pkayed those first two sets against Caro and still lost the match. That was the first time Caro gave herself a chance and that would have been a massive upset and way against the odds to have won.

I notice DIAH asked me to state what points he hadn't answered. I couldn't actually find any he had addressed on my original post.
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Old May 6th, 2012, 08:25 PM   #1971
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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Originally Posted by terjw View Post
Caro in USO 2009. I wish DIAH would tell all those top Russians in Caro's half that it was an easy draw. And tell Sveta it was a cakewalk draw as well after the way she pkayed those first two sets against Caro and still lost the match. That was the first time Caro gave herself a chance and that would have been a massive upset and way against the odds to have won.

I notice DIAH asked me to state what points he hadn't answered. I couldn't actually find any he had addressed on my original post.
That's because I think we are engaged in two completely different conversations. The original conversation I found myself in was arguing about whether or not "peak" Caroline could have won a slam with me taking the position that it was unlikely. I have already made that argument a couple of times so I will not do so again.

You seem to be going under the hypothetical theory that Caroline was always going to have deep runs at the U.S. Open and/or the Australian Open. Assuming that to be true, and assuming that she did regularly find herself in the semis, then I can see where you are coming from. If she "always" had deep runs chances are that sooner or later she would make and/or win the final, or at least that she would be giving herself a good chance to do so. The problem with this argument is that it is not easy to make the semis at any slam. True, Caroline has been remarkably consistent at the U.S. Open over the last three years but I think it is foolish to assume that will always be the case as your argument based on percentages does.

Well, Caroline had recently defeated Svetlana, on grass, so I don't think her win at the 2009 U.S. Open was such a big upset.

As to whether or not Caroline had an "easy" draw at the 2009 U.S. Open I don't think we will ever see eye to eye on the subject. Let me put it this way, her draw opened up in a way that was potentially very beneficial to her much like her 2011 French Open draw did. The difference was that she took advantage of one and not the other. Caroline had Melanie Oudin in the quarters and Yanina Wickmayer in the semis. Kim had Na Li in the quarters and Serena Williams in the semis. Did one player have a tougher path to the final than the other? I would emphatically say "yes!" How about we swap their draws. Would Caroline have made the final if she had to go through Na and Serena? Possibly buy very unlikely. Serena is Serena and this was a slam. It seems very unlikely that Caroline would have won that match. At that point Caroline and Na had only played once with Caroline winning but this was just a few months before Na defeated Caroline twice (once in Sydney and once at the Australian Open).
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Old May 6th, 2012, 10:20 PM   #1972
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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That's because I think we are engaged in two completely different conversations. The original conversation I found myself in was arguing about whether or not "peak" Caroline could have won a slam with me taking the position that it was unlikely. I have already made that argument a couple of times so I will not do so again.

You seem to be going under the hypothetical theory that Caroline was always going to have deep runs at the U.S. Open and/or the Australian Open. Assuming that to be true, and assuming that she did regularly find herself in the semis, then I can see where you are coming from. If she "always" had deep runs chances are that sooner or later she would make and/or win the final, or at least that she would be giving herself a good chance to do so. The problem with this argument is that it is not easy to make the semis at any slam. True, Caroline has been remarkably consistent at the U.S. Open over the last three years but I think it is foolish to assume that will always be the case as your argument based on percentages does.

Well, Caroline had recently defeated Svetlana, on grass, so I don't think her win at the 2009 U.S. Open was such a big upset.

As to whether or not Caroline had an "easy" draw at the 2009 U.S. Open I don't think we will ever see eye to eye on the subject. Let me put it this way, her draw opened up in a way that was potentially very beneficial to her much like her 2011 French Open draw did. The difference was that she took advantage of one and not the other. Caroline had Melanie Oudin in the quarters and Yanina Wickmayer in the semis. Kim had Na Li in the quarters and Serena Williams in the semis. Did one player have a tougher path to the final than the other? I would emphatically say "yes!" How about we swap their draws. Would Caroline have made the final if she had to go through Na and Serena? Possibly buy very unlikely. Serena is Serena and this was a slam. It seems very unlikely that Caroline would have won that match. At that point Caroline and Na had only played once with Caroline winning but this was just a few months before Na defeated Caroline twice (once in Sydney and once at the Australian Open).
Well I actually put a percentage figure on making USO and AO slam SFs of 90% if you remember. And I'm not stating a hypothetical theory she will always make it. It's an answer to your question as to how she might win a slam playing at the level she was. And that was if she makes it there - and it's not unrealistic playing at the level she was because that's what she was ding - then that puts the odds of her actually winning some day much lower.

Your posts on if X can't beat Y and Y woulda coulda beat Z and if X diodn''t have a lucky draw she woulda coulda blaa blaa blaa - the way to go on for ever in circles. Sorry - but most of that stuff I just mentrally draw a line through it and think - just give me a percentage chance Caro wins a SF and Caro wins a F and we work it out from there.

As for USO 2009- yes we will never see eye to eye. Another difference between us on this subject is I don't constantly bring up the subject of lucky draws and say it was the luckiest draw in a slam ever. I just respond to you on this. You seem to have this need to periodically state it every few weeks.

As for playing down Caro's win against Sveta with this <<Well, Caroline had recently defeated Svetlana, on grass, so I don't think her win at the 2009 U.S. Open was such a big upset>> - words fail me that. . I can't believe it. A year and a half previously - there was a masiive upset. I watched at Eastbourne when Caro beat the #1 seed Sveta. Then ayear and a half later in the 2009 USO - Sveta was ranked #6 and a grand slam winner that year. She played nearly 2 sets of unbelievable tennis that would have defeated practically anyone else. And you dismiss that as no big thing. I think both her wins were fantastic achievements. I can't begin to express how happy I was then. It was so against the odds like a David and Goliath situation.

Much as I love to read your posts and I do love your funny posts - I will always find you and your posts on this highly annoying. I'm frankly amazed that if you think it wouldn't and think this subject is just a difference of opinion. Bottom line is I'm not interested in your woulda coulda things in the past that could be made about any player.

Just as a test - suppose you were a Sharapova fan. Active in her forum. Now she reached the Wimbledon final and the highest ranked player she had to play was ranked #19. No player who had ever won a slam either. Funny that you consider Caro's draw the easiest ever when she did have to play a slam winner and a player ranked #6 - but never mind. Suppose as a keen contributor in Pova's forum - you harped on about her Wimbledon drawc being the easiest ever. Not just once - but again and again. Tied up with saying nowadays she will never win a slam again. Just think. What do you think the reaction would be? All smiles and "we just have a little disagreement".

Another test. Suppose you were a Serena fan. Active in her forum. How about you make post after post that until Justine's comeback in 2010 - she'd never atually won a slam after 2003 that Justine was playing in. And couple that with harping on about Serena is the only player to have ever won a slam (Wimby 2010) without having to play a to ten player. What do you think the reaction would be? All smiles and "we just have a little disagreement".
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Old May 6th, 2012, 11:14 PM   #1973
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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Well I actually put a percentage figure on making USO and AO slam SFs of 90% if you remember. And I'm not stating a hypothetical theory she will always make it. It's an answer to your question as to how she might win a slam playing at the level she was. And that was if she makes it there - and it's not unrealistic playing at the level she was because that's what she was ding - then that puts the odds of her actually winning some day much lower.

Your posts on if X can't beat Y and Y woulda coulda beat Z and if X diodn''t have a lucky draw she woulda coulda blaa blaa blaa - the way to go on for ever in circles. Sorry - but most of that stuff I just mentrally draw a line through it and think - just give me a percentage chance Caro wins a SF and Caro wins a F and we work it out from there.

As for USO 2009- yes we will never see eye to eye. Another difference between us on this subject is I don't constantly bring up the subject of lucky draws and say it was the luckiest draw in a slam ever. I just respond to you on this. You seem to have this need to periodically state it every few weeks.

As for playing down Caro's win against Sveta with this <<Well, Caroline had recently defeated Svetlana, on grass, so I don't think her win at the 2009 U.S. Open was such a big upset>> - words fail me that. . I can't believe it. A year and a half previously - there was a masiive upset. I watched at Eastbourne when Caro beat the #1 seed Sveta. Then ayear and a half later in the 2009 USO - Sveta was ranked #6 and a grand slam winner that year. She played nearly 2 sets of unbelievable tennis that would have defeated practically anyone else. And you dismiss that as no big thing. I think both her wins were fantastic achievements. I can't begin to express how happy I was then. It was so against the odds like a David and Goliath situation.

Much as I love to read your posts and I do love your funny posts - I will always find you and your posts on this highly annoying. I'm frankly amazed that if you think it wouldn't and think this subject is just a difference of opinion. Bottom line is I'm not interested in your woulda coulda things in the past that could be made about any player.

Just as a test - suppose you were a Sharapova fan. Active in her forum. Now she reached the Wimbledon final and the highest ranked player she had to play was ranked #19. No player who had ever won a slam either. Funny that you consider Caro's draw the easiest ever when she did have to play a slam winner and a player ranked #6 - but never mind. Suppose as a keen contributor in Pova's forum - you harped on about her Wimbledon drawc being the easiest ever. Not just once - but again and again. Tied up with saying nowadays she will never win a slam again. Just think. What do you think the reaction would be? All smiles and "we just have a little disagreement".

Another test. Suppose you were a Serena fan. Active in her forum. How about you make post after post that until Justine's comeback in 2010 - she'd never atually won a slam after 2003 that Justine was playing in. And couple that with harping on about Serena is the only player to have ever won a slam (Wimby 2010) without having to play a to ten player. What do you think the reaction would be? All smiles and "we just have a little disagreement".
I think both of our approaches are flawed but I do believe it is reasonable to look at her record against her potential opponents and draw conclusions. Sure, any player is capable of defeating any other player on any given day but I don't think it is a stretch to say that it is very unlikely that Caroline would have defeated Petra in the 2011 Wimbledon final.

I'm fairly certain that I never referred to Caroline's draw at the 2009 U.S. Open as "the luckiest draw ever." I'm pretty sure that I refer to it as a "reasonably easy" draw which I believe is accurate. I don't mean it as an insult either. If your draw opens up you would be foolish not to take advantage of it. That's one reason Caroline's loss at the 2011 French Open was particularly hard to take. Her draw had opened up and she had very winnable matches ahead of her to possibly make the final.

Regarding the match against Svetlana, at the time Svetlana was ranked sixth and Caroline was ranked eighth. Looking at it from that perspective is it really shocking that the eighth ranked player defeated the sixth ranked player? You seem to be implying that there was a huge gulf between Svetlana and Caroline and I just don't think that is true. To be sure Svetlana was the more accomplished player and slightly favoured to win the match but, at least on paper, I really don't think the outcome was that shocking. Look at Svetlana's results after her win at Roland Garros, there were several first or second round exits and she hardly played stellar on hardcourts leading up to the U.S. Open. During that same stretch Caroline won Eastbourne, made the final of Bastad and won New Haven. She had some early exits too but post Roland Garros Caroline was the better player which makes the win less shocking than you are trying to paint it as being.

It's impossible to say but I suspect that if I was a fan of Sharapova or Serena that I would not be afraid to mention their "easy" draws however I should like to point out that there is a key difference: both of those players have won multiple slams in the past beating some of the best players so that kind of makes the situation a little bit different. I also pointed to Sam's relatively easy draw to the final at last years U.S. Open although in retrospect seeing how Kerber has improved it looks a bit less easy now than it did at the time. Of course once Sam made the final she had an awfully tall mountain to climb but she was able to do it.
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Old May 6th, 2012, 11:53 PM   #1974
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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... I'm of the opinion that Caroline shouldn't give up the game that has made her a success to begin with but that she should add little things to it that give her when needed some more options. I think most of us agree about that actually. It's finding the right balance that's the hard and to Caroline probably the confusing part. But let's hope that she gets it right eventually.
She has to change what she's doing now. This is 10 months of ordinary results, and that was on hardcourt for most of it.
Even if Caroline never goes back to what got her to #1, she certainly has to make changes that will make her game more effective than it is now.

How long does she plan on going in-between titles? 2 or 3 years? Tennis careers arent that long to give away this much time.
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Old May 7th, 2012, 12:04 AM   #1975
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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Originally Posted by DownInAHole View Post
I think both of our approaches are flawed but I do believe it is reasonable to look at her record against her potential opponents and draw conclusions. Sure, any player is capable of defeating any other player on any given day but I don't think it is a stretch to say that it is very unlikely that Caroline would have defeated Petra in the 2011 Wimbledon final..
Sorry - you've totally lost me on that. Petra played Sharapova at 2011 Wimbledon not Caro. I have no idea what you are trying to say here.

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I'm fairly certain that I never referred to Caroline's draw at the 2009 U.S. Open as "the luckiest draw ever." I'm pretty sure that I refer to it as a "reasonably easy" draw which I believe is accurate.
See below:

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Lastly, I absolutely maintain that Caroline's path to the 2009 U.S. Open was about as easy as a player could hope for
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I don't mean it as an insult either. If your draw opens up you would be foolish not to take advantage of it. That's one reason Caroline's loss at the 2011 French Open was particularly hard to take. Her draw had opened up and she had very winnable matches ahead of her to possibly make the final.
But you do insult her - or her achievements anyway - whether you meant to or not. You are saying in effect that it's no big deal because her draw was as easy as it gets.


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Regarding the match against Svetlana, at the time Svetlana was ranked sixth and Caroline was ranked eighth. Looking at it from that perspective is it really shocking that the eighth ranked player defeated the sixth ranked player? You seem to be implying that there was a huge gulf between Svetlana and Caroline and I just don't think that is true. To be sure Svetlana was the more accomplished player and slightly favoured to win the match but, at least on paper, I really don't think the outcome was that shocking. Look at Svetlana's results after her win at Roland Garros, there were several first or second round exits and she hardly played stellar on hardcourts leading up to the U.S. Open. During that same stretch Caroline won Eastbourne, made the final of Bastad and won New Haven. She had some early exits too but post Roland Garros Caroline was the better player which makes the win less shocking than you are trying to paint it as being..
Yes - very much against the odds. Ranking, grand slam winner and just watch the match. I was thriilled that "David" beat "Goliath"

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Originally Posted by DownInAHole View Post
It's impossible to say but I suspect that if I was a fan of Sharapova or Serena that I would not be afraid to mention their "easy" draws however I should like to point out that there is a key difference: both of those players have won multiple slams in the past beating some of the best players so that kind of makes the situation a little bit different.
That's just even worse that you harp on about Caro's USO 2009 USO draw as "easy" but you may consider not saying anything about an "easier" draw Serena and Sharapova had (playing no top ten / top 19 players or slam winners) because they have previously won a slam. Talk about rooting for Goliath agains David . Criticise a player before they won a slam but consider giving a free pass to a player once they win a slam. Shoulsd be the other way round.

Anyway - the actual question I posed wasn't whether you would. It was "what do you think the reaction would be in her forum as a fan" if you criticised Shaerapova for not winning a slam since her comeback saying she wouldn't win another even though she had as easy as it gets draw at Wimby 2011. And what reaction as a Serena fan do you think you'd get saying all her slams post 2003 were easy because she didn't have Justine in the draw and that the Wimby 2010 draw was as easy as it gets.
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Old May 7th, 2012, 12:46 AM   #1976
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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Originally Posted by Chrissie-fan View Post
Well, the line of reasoning applied to the situation of one or two years ago is that there were only two or three players around who Caroline was a clear underdog against (Serena, Kim and Venus) and that those players wouldn't be around forever. So from that perspective it was quite logical to assume that if the Caro of that time kept on knocking on the door that there was a decent chance that it would open eventually. But since that time other young players have stepped up to the plate making it a different ballgame. I'm of the opinion that Caroline shouldn't give up the game that has made her a success to begin with but that she should add little things to it that give her when needed some more options. I think most of us agree about that actually. It's finding the right balance that's the hard and to Caroline probably the confusing part. But let's hope that she gets it right eventually.
It's all on hold at the moment anyway until her ankle has healed whether or not she plays with her injury (I really hope not).

But her game now - she is making more UEs and that is really hurting her. And from the little I've seen and the comments - they don't seem to be because she's trying to take more risks either. The other thing that I think is hurting her is she doesn't seem to be getting so many balls back which are deep and she is surrendering control with more short returns than before. I wish she could do something about this and in particular get back to fewer UEs.

In the past in the early rounds - playing a lower ranked player - she very rarely lost. She would in fact have a lot of what looked a loty of very easy one-sided scoreline wins. Lower ranked players in the early rounds would die a death because they simply couldn't get a ball past her and she wouldn't make a mistake. Now we get close matches which means she has much more work to do in the early rounds.
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Old May 7th, 2012, 03:38 AM   #1977
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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You can't say Mathematics doesn't apply just because of the JJ vs Henin sequence - which was 10 attempts not a dozen:
Never said that mathematics didn't apply...only that the cited reasoning process was somewhat flawed...and that's true regardless of whether or not we nitpick over how many times JJ played Justine.Bottom line is,there were at least 5 occasions,IIRC,when JJ was quite close to victory.....so,apparently,Justine wasn't so dominant that one solid service hold by Jelena wouldn't have brought the Serb a win.

Bottom line is,Caro would have better mathematical odds if she consistently made Slam semis...but nothing even CLOSE to certainty...not even a fair amount of assurance.As another reference point,the Naval Academy football team once played Notre Dame U. 30-plus years consecutively without getting a single win in that annual matchup.Granted,NDU usually recruited more blue-chip athletes than Navy did,yet there were ample down years for NDU during that long span,including games when they played sub-par...and the talent gap between the two schools wasn't always so enormous so as to make the outcome a foregone conclusion...and still Navy couldn't beat NDU over that 30-plus year stretch...and sports offers us countless other examples if you don't like the two above

Trying to win a Slam by just getting back shots,and hoping for top-flight SF and F opponents to make mistakes,isn't an impossible proposition,but it's rare for someone to win a major championship with passive play...usually such feats require one to take control of a pressure situation....NOT sit back and wait for mistakes.

Let's create another hypothetical scenario and transport Caroline thru time and have her compete between 1993-2003.That would have her battling vs. Graf,Seles,Sanchez-Vicario,Hingis,peak Capriati(2001-2003),the WS and Davenport.If Caroline made 10 Slam QFs in that stretch,withOUT winning a GS,no one would be at all surprised if she went 0-for-10 while employing the same style she's been known for.Burisleif has posted that Caroline was a successful junior and had a more aggressive style then...so it IS possible for her.However,her best odds would be if she found the right balance between the passive style and the elements she's trying to tweak in now...that would increase her chances much more than simply praying for an advantageous draw with no great players
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Old May 7th, 2012, 08:11 AM   #1978
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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Sorry - you've totally lost me on that. Petra played Sharapova at 2011 Wimbledon not Caro. I have no idea what you are trying to say here.
You really don't understand where I am coming from? OK, let me try again. We were talking about Caroline at her peak and her odds of winning a slam. It's tough to define exactly what her peak was but I think it is reasonable to consider her time as number one as her peak so that means circa 2010 U.S. Open (technically she wasn't yet number one but her hot streak started before then) through till the end of 2011. I looked at the players she would have faced had she made the final and came to the conclusion that in three of her potential finals (2010 U.S. Open [she would have faced Kim], 2011 Australian Open [Kim again] and 2011 Wimbledon [she would have faced Petra]) she had very little chance of winning. Sure, it is possible that she could have won any or all finals but the three mentioned above I believe to be the least likely. Specifically regarding 2011 Wimbledon, Caroline was on Maria's half of the draw so had Caroline made the final she would have played Petra. I don't see what is confusing about what I typed. I was using that as an example of a final that I believe would have been extremely tough for Caroline to have won. Even if she had somehow found a way to beat Sabine in the semis (which I think is very unlikely) would she have managed to defeat Petra on grass?

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See below:

But you do insult her - or her achievements anyway - whether you meant to or not. You are saying in effect that it's no big deal because her draw was as easy as it gets.
As your quotes prove I never typed the words "luckiest draw ever." Still, if you are playing Melanie Oudin in the quarters and Yanina Wickmayer in the semis that is about as easy as it gets to make the final of a grand slam. That is an opinion but I believe it is an opinion that most objective people would agree with. Just contrast it with who Kim faced in the quarters (Na Li) and semis (Serena Williams).

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Yes - very much against the odds. Ranking, grand slam winner and just watch the match. I was thriilled that "David" beat "Goliath"
Currently Caroline is ranked sixth and Na Li is ranked eighth. So in that scenario is Caroline Goliath and Na David and would it be equally shocking for Na to beat Caroline? Of course not. Was Caroline the better player in the two and a half months leading up to the U.S. Open? Her results say that she was. Sure, Svetlana won the French Open that year but look at her results over the course of the entire year, she was very up and down. This was hardly comparable to Bartoli ending Azarenka's streak this year. It was two players that were fairly evenly matched. I just think you are wildly exaggerating the difference between the two players. Absolutely, at that point Svetlana was the better player and Caroline defeating her was a mild upset but as an example it was hardly as shocking as what happened to Na Li and Petra Kvitova at the U.S. Open last year.

Quote:
That's just even worse that you harp on about Caro's USO 2009 USO draw as "easy" but you may consider not saying anything about an "easier" draw Serena and Sharapova had (playing no top ten / top 19 players or slam winners) because they have previously won a slam. Talk about rooting for Goliath agains David . Criticise a player before they won a slam but consider giving a free pass to a player once they win a slam. Shoulsd be the other way round.
Again, you missed my point. Both Serena and Maria have won slams by defeating top players so it undercuts any arguments about them having "easy" draws. How can you criticise them for having an "easy" draw when in the past they both won slams getting through "tough" draws? To criticise them for not doing something in the present that they have done in the past seems a bit silly. They are both multiple slam winners and Caroline has yet to win a slam so I don't think it makes sense to compare them to her. It would make more sense to compare Caroline to other top players that never won a slam (Dementieva, Jankovic, Safina).

Quote:
Anyway - the actual question I posed wasn't whether you would. It was "what do you think the reaction would be in her forum as a fan" if you criticised Shaerapova for not winning a slam since her comeback saying she wouldn't win another even though she had as easy as it gets draw at Wimby 2011. And what reaction as a Serena fan do you think you'd get saying all her slams post 2003 were easy because she didn't have Justine in the draw and that the Wimby 2010 draw was as easy as it gets.
Again, this is a different scenario than Caroline. Since Wimbledon Maria made another slam final. The Justine question is just silly. You beat the players you need to beat to win a slam. As far as Serena's "easy" 2010 Wimbledon draw again, there is a difference. She took advantage of it and won. I know a lot of people disagree but when you look at the slams where Caroline was seeded first (from 2010 U.S. Open to the 2012 Australian Open) she had six chances to make a final as the top seed and failed all six times. She had tremendous success over that stretch but for some reason she was unable to have that level of success at the slams. I think it is perfectly fair and valid to ask why and to criticise her for that. With the number one ranking come great expectations. People expect you to be the best and at the slams as number one Caroline was never better than third best.

To specifically answer your question I think the response would be that "Maria has now made two slam finals in the last year and she has three slams, why are you harping on about a single draw in a single slam?"

Regarding Serena I expect it would be something like "she is the most accomplished player of her generation and has beaten every top player she faced, what are you going on about you silly little man?"

Again, I don't think it would make sense to make those arguments about those players when they have already proven that they are capable of winning multiple slams. To date Caroline has not proven that she is capable of the same thing.
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Old May 7th, 2012, 08:17 AM   #1979
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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It's all on hold at the moment anyway until her ankle has healed whether or not she plays with her injury (I really hope not).

But her game now - she is making more UEs and that is really hurting her. And from the little I've seen and the comments - they don't seem to be because she's trying to take more risks either. The other thing that I think is hurting her is she doesn't seem to be getting so many balls back which are deep and she is surrendering control with more short returns than before. I wish she could do something about this and in particular get back to fewer UEs.

In the past in the early rounds - playing a lower ranked player - she very rarely lost. She would in fact have a lot of what looked a loty of very easy one-sided scoreline wins. Lower ranked players in the early rounds would die a death because they simply couldn't get a ball past her and she wouldn't make a mistake. Now we get close matches which means she has much more work to do in the early rounds.
I could not agree more. When she was at her best it seemed like even if she was out of position and barely got her racket on the ball her shots still landed very deep and put her opponent in a tough position. Now it seems like too many of her balls are landing right in the middle of the court giving her opponent all the time they need to put the ball exactly where they want to. I still think her inability to hold her serve is her biggest problem but she is definitely getting a lot less depth on her groundstrokes and that is also really hurting her.
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Old May 7th, 2012, 10:21 AM   #1980
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

I just want to add one thing on the matter of Caroline reaching the U.S Open final in 2009. Whilst on paper Oudin/Wickmayer was an easy path, the top half in itself was an incredibly easy road for Caroline. Would anyone care to name one player who would have troubled Caro that year? Safina was struggling with injury and barely getting past top 100 players. Sharapova's serve was at her utmost worst and Caroline would have been a horrible match up for her much like Oudin. The straight sets defeat she suffered at the hands of Woz the following year just adds to the fact that Maria was highly unlikely to beat her in 2009. Petrova.....again, she is similar to Sveta in headcaseness so Woz would have similarly worn her down eventually. Perhaps Dementieva would have been the most likely possible conqueror of Caro that year but it is worth noting that from the time that the U.S Open started that year till Elena's retirement, Woz did not lose a single match to her and was beginning to become her bogeyman.

The Serbian sistas were also in horrible form. Jelena was a bad match-up for Caroline at the time but the previous year she had been taken to 3 sets by Woz and circumstances were different in 2009. The other seeds were Kleybanova,Schnyder,Lisicki, Bondarenko and Zheng, all arguably not as tough as Sveta.

Of course the Williams+Clijsters being on the other side of the draw was helpful but that's just the way the draw goes sometimes

I'm not saying Woz was always a shoe-in for the final and yes she may have lost at some point if perhaps the draw was different, but chances were that she would be the one likely to come through the top half
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