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Old Apr 3rd, 2012, 10:32 PM   #1
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NCAA Tournament projections

Someone last year (Gouci?) started projecting the field of 64 when it came down to crunch time. I really enjoyed that thread and would like to see that again this year. I'm going to take an amateur hack at it but I'm interested to hear any input.

For the sake of convenience, I'm going to assume for the first projection that the highest currently ranked team will be the conference champion, although I know that will not be the case.

(* = Conference Champ)

Rank School
1 UCLA * Pac-12
2 University of Florida * SEC
3 Duke University *ACC
4 University of Southern California - At Large #1
5 University of Georgia - At Large #2
6 Stanford - At Large #3
7 University of Miami (Florida) - At Large #4
8 North Carolina - At Large #5
9 California - At Large #6
10 University of Texas at Austin - Big 12
11 University of Alabama - At Large #7
12 Baylor University - At Large #8
13 University of Virginia - At Large #9
14 Northwestern University * Big Ten
15 University of Michigan - At Large #10
16 University of Mississippi - At Large #11
17 University of Nebraska - At Large #12
18 University of Notre Dame * Big East
19 University of Illinois - At Large #13
20 Texas Tech University - At Large #14
21 Texas A&M University - At Large #15
22 University of Tennessee - At Large #16
23 Vanderbilt University - At Large # 17
24 Clemson University - At Large #18
25 Georgia Tech - At Large #19
26 University of Tulsa * Conference USA
27 Yale University * Ivy
28 University of Arizona - At Large #20
29 Arizona State University - At Large #21
30 Washington State University - At Large #22
31 Florida State University - At Large #23
32 University of South Carolina - At Large #24
33 University of Minnesota - At Large #25
34 Purdue University - At Large #26
35 Pepperdine * West Coast
36 Rice University - At Large #27
37 University of South Florida - At Large #28
38 Saint Mary's College of California - At Large #29
39 Louisiana State University - At Large #30
40 University of Arkansas - At Large #31
41 TCU * Mountain West
42 Univ. of Missouri, Columbia - At Large #32
43 University of Utah - At Large #33
44 University of Washington - At Large #34
45 Indiana University-Bloomington
46 Oklahoma State University
47 Penn State University
48 Virginia Commonwealth University * Colonial Athletic Assoc.
49 Fresno State * WAC
50 Stephen F. Austin * Southland
51 Long Beach State University * Big West
52 UNLV
53 Brown University
54 University of Oklahoma
55 Univ. of Hawaii, Manoa
56 Syracuse University
57 Univ. of Memphis
58 Tulane University
59 Univ. of Wyoming
60 UC Irvine
61 College of Charleston * Southern Conference
62 Mississippi State University
63 Auburn University
64 Sacramento State * Big Sky
65 DePaul University
66 Virginia Tech
67 University of North Texas * Sun Belt
68 Wichita State University * Missouri Valley
69 Princeton University
70 Boston College
71 University of San Diego
72 Univ. of Iowa
73 University of Maryland, College Park
74 Marshall University
75 UNC Wilmington

Conferences with bids & no ranked teams:

1. America East
2. Atlantic Sun
3. Big South
4. Horizon
5. Metro Atlantic
6. Mid-American
7. Mid-Eastern
8. Northeast
9. Ohio Valley
10. Patriot
11. SWAC
12. Summit
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Old Apr 3rd, 2012, 10:56 PM   #2
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Re: NCAA Tournament projections

That would be me. 64 spots, 32 conference champs (as I recall)... you add back those that would otherwise be in to expand the at large pool.

As of today, # 43 Utah is the last team in. (Sorry this does not paste real well).

Couple thoughts:

1) Typically the last few years a final points total of 17.5 is the last at large. Lots of points still to be added and subtracted of course.

2) There is quite a group of schools 'currently' leading their conferences at # 48 to # 51. These are schools that could still potentially climb higher into the rankings. If they push up to # 43 or better than additional at large spots would theoretically be available assuming there are no conference tournament upsets.



1 UCLA PAC 1 83.13
2 Florida SEC 2 75.47
3 Duke ACC 3 68.53
4 USC 64.36
5 Georgia 63.19
6 Stanford 62.94
7 Miami (Florida) 61.04
8 North Carolina 60.01
9 California 54.96
10 Texas at Austin Big 12 4 53.17
11 Alabama 52.5
12 Baylor 49.3
13 Virginia 48.56
14 Northwestern Big 10 5 48.33
15 Michigan 47.28
16 Mississippi 43.58
17 Nebraska 40.22
18 Notre Dame Big East 6 40.21
19 Illinois 39.22
20 Texas Tech 38.66
21 Texas A&M 38.51
22 Tennessee 7 38.25
23 Vanderbilt 36.52
24 Clemson 33.13
25 Georgia Tech 30.49
26 Tulsa CUSA 8 30.2
27 Yale IVY 9 26.73
28 Arizona 25.48
29 Arizona State 23.56
30 Washington State 21.08
31 Florida State 20.35
32 South Carolina 20.3
33 Minnesota x 19.93
34 Purdue x 19.1
35 Pepperdine WCC x 10 18.73
36 Rice x 18.44
37 South Florida x 18.37
38 Saint Mary's x 18.02
39 Louisiana State x 17.52
40 Arkansas x 17.28
41 TCU MW x 11 17.16
42 Missouri, Columbia x 17.05
43 Utah x - LAST AT LARGE 15.35
44 Washington 13.56
45 Indiana-Bloomington 13.44
46 Oklahoma State 12.94
47 Penn State 12.91
48 Virginia Commonwealth Colonial 12.65
49 Fresno State WAC 12.5
50 Stephen F. Austin Southland 12.38
51 Long Beach State Big West 12.04
52 UNLV 11.72
53 Brown 11.39
54 Oklahoma 11.26
55 Hawaii 11
56 Syracuse 10.99
57 Memphis 10.9
58 Tulane 10.4
59 Wyoming 10.03
60 UC Irvine 9.61
61 College of Charleston Southern 8.91
62 Mississippi State 8.87
63 Auburn 8.86
64 Sacramento State Big Sky 8.74
65 DePaul 8.54
66 Virginia Tech 8.25
67 North Texas Sun Belt 7.92
68 Wichita State 7.37
69 Princeton 7.23
70 Boston College 7.13
71 U. San Diego 6.64
72 Iowa 6.21
73 Maryland 6.18
74 Marshall 5.9
75 UNC Wilmington 5.62

Last edited by form : Apr 3rd, 2012 at 11:02 PM.
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Old Apr 4th, 2012, 12:30 AM   #3
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Re: NCAA Tournament projections

10sE said "started projecting" not just "if the season ended today."

10sE also said a "thread" and not just a "post."

I think this is the thread 10sE is referring to from 2010.

I probably won't have time to do detailed analysis this year. However if UCI is in at-large contention I might just forfeit sleep to make the time.

A post from that thread. Teams in red had bubble burst and teams in blue got an at-large.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gouci View Post
Taking a quick look here are other locks for the NCAA at-large.


(ranking)(team)(# wins vs top 60)-(# win vs top 61-75)

Locks

29. Vanderbilt 4-5
26. Virginia 5-1
33. Princeton 7-2
32. Ohio St. 5-1
36. Texas A&M 3-3
35. Tulsa 6-2
34. UNLV 3-4

46. North Carolina St. 3-2-1 16.69 pts. -4
wins = 32 Princeton, 53 FIU, 51 WF, 66 Winthrop, 65 CofC, VA Tech

plays ACC 1R #53 WF 4/22

42. Indiana 3-1-0 18.16 pts. -1
wins = 14 TN, 49 Purdue, 51 WF, 71 Minn.
plays Big10 QF #26 Iowa 4/30

38. St. Mary's 4-3-0 20.91 pts. -12
wins = 44 Pepp., 44 Pepp., 45 LBS, 54 Sac. St., 63 Cal Poly, 70 USD, 69 UCI

plays WCC F #44 Pepperdine 4/25

45. Long Beach St. 1-6-0 16.80 pts. +3
wins = 36 NE, 63 Cal Poly, 63 CP, 71 Minn., 69 UCI, 74 NV, 67 SDSU
plays #63 Cal Poly 5/1, #69 UCI 5/2


Bubble teams = 5

48. Rice 4-2-0 16.16 pts. +20
wins = 24 VCU, 25 AR, 50 AZ, 75 TX Tech, 62 LSU, 60 N. TX
plays CUSA SF #35 Tulsa 4/24

40. Utah 3-3-1 18.71 pts. +17
wins = 23 DePaul, 33 UNLV, 50 AZ, 64 TCU, 73 BYU, 67 SDSU, Wichita St.

plays #77 TCU 4/18, MWC SF #67 SDSU 4/30

47. Yale 6-0-0 16.43 pts. +1 = lock 4/16 with win over #53 Dartmouth
wins = 41 Harvard, 51 WF, 56 W&M, 57 Dartmouth, 57 Dartmouth, #59 Brown

plays #53 Dartmouth 4/16, #56 Harvard 4/18, #58 Brown 4/24

44. Pepperdine 3-4-0 17.44 pts. -9 = lock 4/16 with win over #40 LBS
wins = 33 UNLV, 45 LBS, 48 Rice, 63 Cal Poly, 70 USD, 70 USD, 67 SDSU

plays #40 LBS 4/16, WCC SF #62 SD 4/24, WCC F #38 SMC 4/25

41. Harvard 5-1-0 18.37 pts. -2 = lock 4/21 with win over #56 Dartmouth
wins = 32 Princeton, 38 SMC, 47 Yale, 57 Dart., 59 Brown, 74 NV

plays #62 Brown 4/16, #46 Yale 4/18, #56 Dart. 4/21


Long shots

39. Oklahoma 3-4-1 19.86 pts. +2
wins = 34 Tulsa, 58 OK St., 68 AL, 65 CoC, 72 CO, 75 TX Tech, Wichita St., 60 N. TX
plays #59 OK St. 4/14, #49 Nebraska 4/23, B12 QF #36 TX A&M 4/30

43. Boise St. 1-5-0 17.57 pts. -17
wins = 40 UT, 70 USD, 72 CO, 69 UCI, 73 BYU, 74 NV
plays WAC F Fresno St. 5/2

53. FIU 4-0-1 12.78 pts. +11 = eliminated 4/11 with MS St. & North TX falling out of rankings
wins = 31 SMU, 47 Yale, 59 Brown, MS St., 60 North TX

plays SBC F North TX 4/25

49. Purdue 2-1-0 14.71 pts. -4 = eliminated 4/23 with loss to #28 Iowa
wins = 35 OSU, 41 Harvard, 71 Minn.

plays #28 Iowa 4/23, #66 Minn. 4/25, B10 QF #21 Illinois 4/30

36. Nebraska 3-4-1 23.48 pts. -18 = lock 4/24 with win over #57 OKlahoma St.
wins = 37 TA&M, #39 OK, #58 OK St., 71 MN, 72 CO, 69 UCI, 75 TX Tech, Wichita St.

plays #34 TX A&M 4/16, #37 OK 4/23, #57 OK St. 4/24, B12 QF #75 TX Tech 4/30, B12 SF #18 Texas 5/1

50. Wake Forest 2-1 = eliminated 4/ll with loss to #31 Virginia

59. Oklahoma St. 1-2 = eliminated 4/14 with loss to #43 Oklahoma
plays #43 OK 4/14, #49 NE 4/24

75. San Diego St. 2-3-0 5.76 pts. = eliminated 4/16 with loss to Wyoming
wins = 38 SMC, 40 Utah, 70 USD, 64 TCU, 73 BYU

plays #66 USD 4/19, MWC QF #73 BYU 4/29, MWC SF #40 Utah 4/30, MWC F #64 TCU 5/1

77. TCU 2-2-2 = eliminated 4/18 with loss to #42 Utah
plays BYU 4/17, #42 Utah 4/18, MWC QF Wyoming 4/29, MWC SF #33 UNLV 4/30, MWC F #67 SDSU 5/1

.
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Old Apr 4th, 2012, 02:14 AM   #4
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Re: NCAA Tournament projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by form View Post
2) There is quite a group of schools 'currently' leading their conferences at # 48 to # 51. These are schools that could still potentially climb higher into the rankings. If they push up to # 43 or better than additional at large spots would theoretically be available assuming there are no conference tournament upsets.
I'm thinking that this probably won't happen, since they are all in weak conferences and all they have left is conference play. More than likely a team in a weak conference is going to keep going down in ranking even if they win out, don't you think?
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Old Apr 4th, 2012, 02:41 AM   #5
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Re: NCAA Tournament projections

I have to believe that Stanford is going to win the Pac-12
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Old Apr 4th, 2012, 05:25 AM   #6
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Re: NCAA Tournament projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by tie_breaker View Post
I have to believe that Stanford is going to win the Pac-12
When did Stanford NOT win the title?
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Old Apr 4th, 2012, 03:31 PM   #7
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Re: NCAA Tournament projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by fantic View Post
When did Stanford NOT win the title?
But for the purpose of this thread, the results are the same if Stanford gets the conference bearth, or if UCLA does. Either way, the several PAC 12 get atlarge.
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Old Apr 4th, 2012, 04:14 PM   #8
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Re: NCAA Tournament projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2nd_serve View Post
But for the purpose of this thread, the results are the same if Stanford gets the conference bearth, or if UCLA does. Either way, the several PAC 12 get atlarge.
Exactly. It doesn't really matter who wins it if all of the possible teams are in the top 40. What would shake things up is if for example Memphis State won Conference USA but still ended up ranked only 50 or so, and Tulsa ended up getting an at-large bid, taking an at-large away from a "bubble team".
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Old Apr 4th, 2012, 09:02 PM   #9
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Re: NCAA Tournament projections

43. Utah 4-0-1

top 65 wins = Wyoming, UNLV, Texas Tech, WA
good wins = Wisconsin
plays = at OR 4/6, at #44 WA 4/7, at #29 ASU 4/13, at #28 AZ 4/14

- Utah needs to beat one from Washington, Arizona or Arizona St. or they will probably be one of the last bubble teams out.

44. Washington 2-1-2

top 65 wins = Minnesota, Sac. St.
top 66-75 wins = San Diego
good wins = William & Mary, SDSU
plays = #43 Utah 4/7, at #30 WA St. 4/15, OR 4/22
.

Last edited by gouci : Apr 9th, 2012 at 08:34 PM.
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Old Apr 4th, 2012, 10:43 PM   #10
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Re: NCAA Tournament projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by gouci View Post
43. Utah 3-1

ranked wins = Wyoming, UNLV, Texas Tech
good wins = Wisconsin
plays = at OR 4/6, at #44 WA 4/7, at #29 ASU 4/13, at #28 AZ 4/14

- Utah needs to beat one from Washington, Arizona or Arizona St. or they will probably be one of the last bubble teams out.

.
Criteria says when comparing last teams (or individuals) into the tournament the key things are:
a) Head to head amongst those being compared
b) Comparable matches between those being compared
c) Wins versus IN.. meaning a win vs another team/individual that is already in the tourney
Each of those criteria is used to add additional ranking pts when making the comparison beyond the computer total.

That Texas Tech win (Top 25) is MONEY if they end up 43-45 on the bubble. They beat a full Texas Tech squad.

But if any team falls lower than one or two below the cut.. then no shot.

Right now.. TODAY... they are IN. Nobody near them has that kind of win.
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Old Apr 5th, 2012, 07:17 PM   #11
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Re: NCAA Tournament projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by form View Post
That Texas Tech win (Top 25) is MONEY if they end up 43-45 on the bubble. They beat a full Texas Tech squad.

But if any team falls lower than one or two below the cut.. then no shot.

Right now.. TODAY... they are IN. Nobody near them has that kind of win.
What you're not taking into account is if Utah adds 3 more losses in Washington, Arizona and Arizona State, those 3 losses will probably drag Utah's ranking down 5+ spots bursting their at-large bubble.
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Old Apr 6th, 2012, 03:31 PM   #12
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Re: NCAA Tournament projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by gouci View Post
What you're not taking into account is if Utah adds 3 more losses in Washington, Arizona and Arizona State, those 3 losses will probably drag Utah's ranking down 5+ spots bursting their at-large bubble.
Losses don't hurt a team... they just don't help you.

The ITA is like the WTA... you accumulate points for wins and wins on the road.

(Look at Tennessee)

So, Utah has those points in the bank. Yes they would be helped by beating Washington but they will only slide back as others accumulate more points OR if some of their wins slide backward in ranking value.
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Old Apr 6th, 2012, 07:03 PM   #13
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Re: NCAA Tournament projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by form View Post
Losses don't hurt a team... they just don't help you.

The ITA is like the WTA... you accumulate points for wins and wins on the road.
Incorrect.

The ranking value is the result of a fraction:

Wins (and their value, which depends on your opponents' rank) is the numerator, and countable matches plus losses as the denominator. If a team were undefeated, however many wins are being counted at the current ranking date is the denominator. This number increases as the season goes on and caps off at a certain number. Every time a team loses, there is a figure added to the denominator (the worse the ranking, the higher the number added), thereby decreasing the total value. This explains why a team's ranking drops suddenly after a "bad" loss, especially early after the computer takes over and not as many wins are being "counted".

So it's X (points for countable wins) over Y (number of countable wins) plus Z (losses)

The exact formula is "secret" but you one tell by movement in rankings that a loss against a top-10 team hardly adds any value to the denominator while an unranked loss affects a team a great deal. Also it is clear that less wins/losses are counted early in the season because big wins/bad losses affect a team's ranking # more dramatically (not actual rank, but the integer next to the team, which is the result of the calculation).
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Old Apr 6th, 2012, 07:06 PM   #14
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Re: NCAA Tournament projections

To make it more clear, and I know this is not exactly correct but just for the sake of clarifying, say there are 320 D1 teams, a win over the #1 team would get you 320 points and a win over the #320 team would get you 1 pt.

A loss against the #1 team would add 1 to your denominator while a loss against the worst team would add 320.

Judging by the final ranking value the figures above are clearly not correct, but the principle (benefit/detriment of a win/loss directly proportional to opponent's rank) is.

Someone with a math background could probably figure it out.
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Old Apr 10th, 2012, 08:48 PM   #15
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Re: NCAA Tournament projections

Women's National Team Rankings
Administered by the ITA
NCAA Division I Tennis
April 10, 2012

In the bubble discussion


Rank Avg School Previous Ranking

31 20.94 University of Minnesota 33
32 19.84 Washington State University 30
33 19.75 Florida State University 31
34 18.89 Purdue University 34
35 18.60 Pepperdine 35
36 17.92 Rice University 36
37 16.95 Louisiana State University 39
38 16.84 TCU 41
39 16.20 Saint Mary's College of California 38
40 15.82 University of South Florida 37
41 15.60 Stephen F. Austin 50
42 15.58 Virginia Commonwealth University 48
43 15.47 University of Arkansas 40
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