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Old Jan 27th, 2012, 04:56 AM   #241
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

Quote:
Originally Posted by theFutureisNow View Post
You should hedge big.

Djokovic always beats Nadal.
Wouldn't he be fairly low odds though ($1.40ish?), would it be worth it?
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Old Jan 27th, 2012, 05:18 AM   #242
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

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Originally Posted by Floor View Post
Wouldn't he be fairly low odds though ($1.40ish?), would it be worth it?
Let's suppose the EV from the Sharapova/Azarenka part of the bet is 2500.

I think that the chances of Djokovic winning is at least 80%. Do you really want to have an 80% chance of getting nothing?

Say you could find a 1.40/1 bet for Novak. If you bet 2000 on that then you get $500 dollars guaranteed, with an 80% chance at $800.

Assuming that these odds are anywhere close then I think the hedge option would be preferred by most people that don't have an extreme preference for risk.
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Old Jan 27th, 2012, 05:23 AM   #243
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

Ok cheers, hopefully Muzza can somehow win tonight
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Old Jan 27th, 2012, 09:01 AM   #244
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

Won 70 on Kuznetsova/Zvonareva + Ito+Sugita
Betted 10 on Murray to win @ 40
Betted 100 on Djokovic to win 30
Betted 20 on Djokovic + a itf girl to win 45
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Old Jan 27th, 2012, 09:49 AM   #245
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

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Nadal @ 2.25.
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You were saying?
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Old Jan 27th, 2012, 10:10 AM   #246
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

just took Nole @ 2,50
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Old Jan 27th, 2012, 10:10 AM   #247
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

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You were saying?
Just ing at the 'experts' giving those bets. It was NID that Nadal would win. Safe money.

Taking Azarenka tomorrow 2-1.
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Old Jan 27th, 2012, 10:28 AM   #248
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

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Originally Posted by rrfnpump View Post
Just ing at the 'experts' giving those bets. It was NID that Nadal would win. Safe money.
Sorry. I thought you were laughing at me making a stupid bet rather than at the ludicrous odds.
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Old Jan 27th, 2012, 10:44 AM   #249
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

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Sorry. I thought you were laughing at me making a stupid bet rather than at the ludicrous odds.
No. Laughing at the hilarious odds of Nadal. Acting like in men's tennis there are still surprises possible. The Grand Slams these days are so predictable way before its start. And bookies dont seem to realize. Good for us.

SF: Djokovic d. Murray or Federer
SF: Nadal d. Murray or Federer
F: Djokovic d. Nadal

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Old Jan 27th, 2012, 10:53 AM   #250
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

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Originally Posted by rrfnpump View Post
SF: Djokovic d. Murray


The score right now hints that it's not a given yet. Depends on the next game.
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Old Jan 27th, 2012, 10:55 AM   #251
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

i think Nadal will win it no matter what
Nole wake up
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Old Jan 27th, 2012, 10:56 AM   #252
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

TB
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Old Jan 27th, 2012, 11:07 AM   #253
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

I think Mugray still won't win this
I might bet some huge money on Djoko now
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Old Jan 27th, 2012, 11:08 AM   #254
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

Nole at 2.45
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Old Jan 27th, 2012, 11:09 AM   #255
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Re: TF Betting Thread : 2012 Australia Open The 1st major

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I think Mugray still won't win this
I might bet some huge money on Djoko now
i doubt it
Murray still won this set altough broken when up a break,saved 3 SPs and broken while serving for it so no way he will lose now
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