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Old Jan 13th, 2012, 12:36 AM   #1
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Australian Open 2012

Here is Sammy's quarter of the draw:

[6] STOSUR, Samantha AUS v CIRSTEA, Sorana ROU
[Q] QUALIFIER v RADWANSKA, Urszula POL
[Q] QUALIFIER v ERRANI, Sara ITA
[Q] QUALIFIER v [29] PETROVA, Nadia RUS

[23] VINCI, Roberta ITA v CADANTU, Alexandra ROU
[WC] KEYS, Madison USA v ZHENG, Jie CHN
DOKIC, Jelena AUS v [SR] CHAKVETADZE, Anna RUS
RAZZANO, Virginie FRA v [9] BARTOLI, Marion FRA

[15] PAVLYUCHENKOVA, Anastasia RUS v ZAKOPALOVA, Klara CZE
BONDARENKO, Kateryna UKR v KING, Vania USA
BARROIS, Kristina GER v KRAJICEK, Michaella NED
DOMINGUEZ LINO, Lourdes ESP v [21] IVANOVIC, Ana SRB

[27] KIRILENKO, Maria RUS v GAJDOSOVA, Jarmila AUS
[WC] ZHANG, Shuai CHN v WOZNIAK, Aleksandra CAN
BEGU, Irina-Camelia ROU v SUAREZ NAVARRO, Carla ESP
DUSHEVINA, Vera RUS v [2] KVITOVA, Petra CZE

I guess it could have been worse, but this isn't the favourable draw I was hoping for. Cirstea's beaten Sam in the past, third round with Petrova looks dangerous, then probably Bartoli, then Kvitova. Kirilenko's floating around as well
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Old Jan 13th, 2012, 12:47 AM   #2
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Re: Australian Open 2012

One match at a time. My thoughts:

R1 vs Sorana
Not an easy opponent but Sam is still the firm favourite. Let's hope it's a repeat of French Open 2009. They are both different players now, so it should be an interesting match.

Potential R2 vs Q/Radwanska
No idea

Potential R3 vs Petrova
Sam has to win the previous two matches comprehensively to have a chance here. That USO match was SO close. Could have gone either way. Nadia is as hard as 3rd round opponents get.

Potential R4 vs Bartoli
Sadly, Sam has no chance. Best hope is this match doesn't happen at all. Marion needs to lose randomly to someone else.
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Old Jan 13th, 2012, 01:10 AM   #3
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Re: Australian Open 2012

Its a very tough draw. I dont give Sam NO chance if she should face Marion. Afterall she would have 3 matches under her belt, and when Sam gets on a little run it can help her. Plus its one match at a time so it may not happen at all

First up Sori. I dont see her losing this, it could be a close first set but I think Sam will win this match.
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Old Jan 13th, 2012, 01:31 AM   #4
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Re: Australian Open 2012

I could maybe see Vinci causing Marion some problems...maybe Zheng as well, given that she's already won a tournament this year and is playing well. But I'm pretty sure Marion will be waiting in the fourth round.

I can't Sam beating Petrova to be honest. At least not the Petrova who showed up at the USO...
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Last edited by SilverPersian : Jan 13th, 2012 at 03:43 AM.
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Old Jan 13th, 2012, 03:49 AM   #5
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Re: Australian Open 2012

Not the worst draw not the best. I expect at leat round 4. Hoping for QF though.
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Old Jan 13th, 2012, 04:36 AM   #6
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Re: Australian Open 2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by Huntress55 View Post
Its a very tough draw. I dont give Sam NO chance if she should face Marion. Afterall she would have 3 matches under her belt, and when Sam gets on a little run it can help her. Plus its one match at a time so it may not happen at all

First up Sori. I dont see her losing this, it could be a close first set but I think Sam will win this match.
I agree with all of this. Sam *should* get past Sori OK - I think Sam needs to stop letting her opponents in right of the bat. As long as she's in Australia, she's prone to panicking and tightening up the moment her opponent doesn't allow her to dictate play. Once that happens, her usual fighting spirit doesn't seem to kick in quickly or effectively enough (in Oz, that is).

IF she gets as far as to play Marion, she does have a chance, but I'm not rating her chances very highly. Sam's focus is so off in Australia, and Marion's oddball between-point and receiving-serve antics are very distracting at the best of times.

I'll be satisfied if she makes it to R3 tbh. Of course, I say that now but...
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Old Jan 13th, 2012, 05:23 AM   #7
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Re: Australian Open 2012

From R3 onwards this is about as tough a draw as Sam could possibly have been dealt. Unless she goes into total meltdown she should beat Cirstea and whoever she gets in R2, but she has potential matchups against Nadia, Marion, Petra, Serena/Maria and Vika/Kim after that, so she's got a mountain to climb if she wants to pull this one off. IMO the hard bits are R3-R4-QF. Nadia is always a handful for Sam, Marion has been in great form and Petra... well, enough said. If Sam can get to the SF I'd like her chances against anyone, and TBH I can't really see Serena, Maria or Kim even getting that far given their fitness issues and lack of recent matches. But realistically, given this draw a QF finish would be a really great result.
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Old Jan 13th, 2012, 11:07 AM   #9
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Re: Australian Open 2012

Ha! That IS pretty funny. In fact is is a shit draw. We've come to expect that...
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Old Jan 13th, 2012, 11:34 AM   #10
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Re: Australian Open 2012

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Originally Posted by Siderophyre View Post
Ha! That IS pretty funny. In fact is is a shit draw. We've come to expect that...
Yes, tournament favorite in the QF and second favorite in the SF doesn't strike me as a generous draw either.
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Old Jan 13th, 2012, 11:39 AM   #11
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Re: Australian Open 2012

One match at a time!!! And lets be honest Sam draw are usually hard....Come on SAM!!!!
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Old Jan 13th, 2012, 11:43 AM   #12
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Re: Australian Open 2012

Well, she had just about the toughest draw imaginable at the FO2010, and look what happened there!

(She also happened to be in the form of her life, on her favourite surface, and outside of Australia, but whatever).
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Old Jan 13th, 2012, 11:49 AM   #13
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Re: Australian Open 2012

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Originally Posted by SilverPersian View Post
Well, she had just about the toughest draw imaginable at the FO2010, and look what happened there!

(She also happened to be in the form of her life, on her favourite surface, and outside of Australia, but whatever).
If she can get over her nerves I think she's in the form of her life right now. So negotiating the early rounds might well be the hardest bit if she wants to lift the trophy. But:

Quote:
Originally Posted by tenniscrazy84 View Post
One match at a time!!! And lets be honest Sam draw are usually hard....Come on SAM!!!!
Couldn't agree more!
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Old Jan 13th, 2012, 03:19 PM   #14
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Re: Australian Open 2012

Great. I'm having Hopman Cup flashbacks when I think of Sam vs Sorona

Screw it, go Sam
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Old Jan 13th, 2012, 05:31 PM   #15
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Re: Australian Open 2012

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Originally Posted by sunsets21 View Post
Great. I'm having Hopman Cup flashbacks when I think of Sam vs Sorona

Screw it, go Sam
i thought of the hc too but if sam stays calm she can get past sori. go sam!
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