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Old Aug 13th, 2011, 02:27 PM   #16
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Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmie48 View Post
I agree that the Hantuchova loss was probably the biggest disappointment of her year so far. I think she played a fine clay season winning Charleston & Brussels, reaching the final in Stuttgart and SF in Rome.. the only thing that ruins her clay performance looking back is RG. Would she have reached the QF or even SF we would be praising her clay performance now.

Wimbledon was a disappointment but hardly a surprise. Her game isn't that much suited to grass and why she surely should not have lost to Cibulkova the way she did, did you really expect her to make the SF or more in Wimbledon this year? If so, you´re much more of an optimist than I am... I was hoping for QF, Wimbledon is probably the least likely slam for her to win, even though she loves the event so much.
I was hoping for a Wimbledon QF as well. A loss to Sharapova after giving a good account of herself - I could live with that. As for the FO - if you can beat Schiavone on clay one week earlier it's not unrealistic to expect her to reach the QF there as well. But Hantuchova played much better than her ranking, so I don't hold it against Caroline that she lost. It was worrying that she looked absolutely helpless throughout that match though.
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Old Aug 13th, 2011, 03:44 PM   #17
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Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

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Originally Posted by DownInAHole View Post
This I basically agree with.


This I disagree with. Grass is closer to hardcourt than clay, I would expect her to do better at Wimbledon than at Roland Garros. Maybe the problem is that there is not really a grass season. It is hard to get an idea of how well she can play on grass when she rarely plays on it. As far as how deep she could have gone I see no reason why she could not have defeated Sharapova and made the semis. Beating Lisicki on grass would have been a much more difficult task.


Eh, I maintain that a healthy number one ranked Caroline should have had better results than she did when she was injured in 2010 and still an up and comer in 2009. Assuming that she is healthy during the 2012 clay/grass season I expect her to significantly better the results she had from 2009-2011. I also don't think I am being too negative. Keep in mind that this discussion is primarily about a specific part of the season and I did mention that for the first third of the season she exceeded the expectations that I had for her. If she wins a couple of more titles and equals or betters her run at the US Open from last year I will consider the season a success. Otherwise I think it will, overall, have been a mild disappointment, particularly at the slams.
I more or less agree as well about the clay season. I do wonder about losing both matches to Goerges on clay though and Caro is the only top 15 player Hantuchova has crushed this season.

I'm not sure why you think Caro could have beaten Sharapova on grass.

Progress on clay and grass has been a lot less/slower than on hard court. In reference to your thead title, I don't think her consistency deserted her in as much as there wasn't much of it on clay or grass to begin with.

What about giving the player winning %s over a period of time?
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Old Aug 13th, 2011, 04:34 PM   #18
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Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

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Originally Posted by Protoss View Post
I more or less agree as well about the clay season. I do wonder about losing both matches to Goerges on clay though and Caro is the only top 15 player Hantuchova has crushed this season.

I'm not sure why you think Caro could have beaten Sharapova on grass.

Progress on clay and grass has been a lot less/slower than on hard court. In reference to your thead title, I don't think her consistency deserted her in as much as there wasn't much of it on clay or grass to begin with.

What about giving the player winning %s over a period of time?
Eh, why couldn't she have beaten Sharapova on grass? I'm not saying it would be easy But Maria had a fairly easy path to the final and I think at the very least that Caroline would have pushed her to three sets. I'm sure that fans of Maria would point to the semi-final in Rome and say that Maria was able to beat Caroline on her worst surface but I would argue that clay, not grass, is Caroline's worst surface too. On grass Caroline's movement is much better than on clay. Maria certainly wasn't playing dominating tennis at Wimbledon so I think that Caroline would have had at least a 50-50 chance of getting a win. To her credit Maria did eliminate Sabine Lisicki, arguably the hottest player of the tournament, but I am of the opinion that Maria's height was a great help in neutralising the Lisicki serve. Without that big serve to rely on Sabine did not have much to trouble Maria with.

I can admit that my expectations may have been too high for the clay/grass season.

Winning percentages? Shoot, it took me long enough to total up the points!

On the other hand my weekend is wide open, what period of time did you have in mind?
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Old Aug 13th, 2011, 06:20 PM   #19
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Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

I think she has slowed down a bit but given the results in the first half of the season outweigh the losses she had so far.The loss to Vinci was bad though but as you can see she is not the only one who is quite rusty after a break. She can afford to lose points now given her huge lead although I think that she needs to do well in Cincy, too much is at stake.
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Old Aug 13th, 2011, 06:26 PM   #20
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Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

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Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.
It seems like you have a good point, and I actually agree (to some degree) but I don't think it's reasonable or fair to set the bar this high for Caro. I've checked the race rankings at the end of July (the last week to be exact) for the last couple of years.

Caro has 5806 point for the first seven months of 2011, which leads the race by a good margin. That's what I call consistency. No. 2 on the list, Kvitova, has 5037 points. Now, let's see what the best players were able to gather at the same time in 2010 (the same points system was in use then):

1 SERENA WILLIAMS USA 5355
2 VENUS WILLIAMS USA 4085
3 JELENA JANKOVIC SRB 3747
4 SAMANTHA STOSUR AUS 3627
5 JUSTINE HENIN BEL 3415
6 FRANCESCA SCHIAVONE ITA 3198
7 VERA ZVONAREVA RUS 2968
8 CAROLINE WOZNIACKI DEN 2943

Caroline of 2011 has ammased twice the amount of points she did in 2010. We all know she was injured during the clay season of 2010, but she has also managed to collect more race points in 2011 than anyone else was able to do in 2010! That's not inconsistency; that's being up there with the very best!

The race leaders of 2008 were Jankovic and Ivanovic with 5540 and 5522 points respectively (when converted to today's scale). Again, Caroline of 2011 is actually better than anyone in 2008! Let's go back another year. Converting the race points of 2007, however, is quite difficult, as it was a completely different system. But the race leader Justine Henin had 3245 points, which probably equals 5235 points of today's scale according to my rough calculations. Henin was in spectacular form, but missed the Australian Open and could have gathered even more points if she was fit. But she wasn't.

2009 has actually been the only year since 2007 where anyone has been able to collect more points than Caro. The top 6:

1 SAFINA, DINARA RUS 6881
2 WILLIAMS, SERENA USA 5957
3 KUZNETSOVA, SVETLANA RUS 4262
4 DEMENTIEVA, ELENA RUS 3975
5 AZARENKA, VICTORIA BLR 3840
6 WOZNIACKI, CAROLINE DEN 3700

Serena won AO and Wimbledon, was a finalist at Miami, semi finalist at Sydney, Paris, Dubai, and QF at French Open. This is only slightly better than Caro's 2011 in terms of points! Safina, however, was really outstanding in 2009. Winning Rome and Madrid, finalist at AO, FO, Sydney, Stuttgart, and semi finalist at Wimbledon. This is what you're expecting of Caro. It's not good enough that she's better than anyone of 2011, 2010, 2008, or 2007. She has to be even better than the very best of the last five years. Which is a questionable demand, I think. She's 21, and she's no Wayne Gretzky, Edwin Moses, Eddy Merckx, or Michael Jordan. She's good, and she's doing very well, even when we compare her with the very best. That's enough for me. And I think we should be careful not to set the bar too high. If, for instance, Caro had won FO or Wimbledon 2011, then she would have either 7526 or 7646 race points at the end of July. This would perhaps not be an unrealistic figure if she was Seles, Graf, or Navratilova, or even an early Henin. But certainly unprecedented in recent years. This is what we (you) demand of Caro.
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Old Aug 13th, 2011, 07:16 PM   #21
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Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

As far as Caro leading the race, I think the number of tournaments played should be taken into account.
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Old Aug 13th, 2011, 07:32 PM   #22
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Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DownInAHole View Post
Eh, why couldn't she have beaten Sharapova on grass? I'm not saying it would be easy But Maria had a fairly easy path to the final and I think at the very least that Caroline would have pushed her to three sets. I'm sure that fans of Maria would point to the semi-final in Rome and say that Maria was able to beat Caroline on her worst surface but I would argue that clay, not grass, is Caroline's worst surface too. On grass Caroline's movement is much better than on clay. Maria certainly wasn't playing dominating tennis at Wimbledon so I think that Caroline would have had at least a 50-50 chance of getting a win. To her credit Maria did eliminate Sabine Lisicki, arguably the hottest player of the tournament, but I am of the opinion that Maria's height was a great help in neutralising the Lisicki serve. Without that big serve to rely on Sabine did not have much to trouble Maria with.

I can admit that my expectations may have been too high for the clay/grass season.

Winning percentages? Shoot, it took me long enough to total up the points!

On the other hand my weekend is wide open, what period of time did you have in mind?
Sharapova was playing some fairly good tennis in the middle of Wimbledon. I think Sharapova's groundstrokes would prove to be too much seeing as Caro was getting bossed around by Cibulkova who doesn't have as much power or accuracy as Sharapova. I also think Sharapova's serve would be pretty difficult to handle on grass (it was fine til the semis). Grass generally favors aggressive play and strong serving.

I had in mind the post-Stuttgart period you used for calculating ranking points.
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Old Aug 14th, 2011, 03:40 AM   #23
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Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DownInAHole View Post
I can admit that my expectations may have been too high for the clay/grass season.

Winning percentages? Shoot, it took me long enough to total up the points!

On the other hand my weekend is wide open, what period of time did you have in mind?
Am slightly leery of such new threads that are in the interrogative form b/c it potentially opens the door for 'innocent questions' from Moronland(GM)--such as,"Is Caro the worst #1 ever?"---to get transferred here.However,your integrity and credibility as a Caroline fan removes any hint of suspicion in THIS case.

You state your case in a decent,reasoned way,DIAH,but I agree with those who say that your test-case timeline isn't quite long enough.Let's give Caro at least 'til season's end before we can confidently employ such strong terms as 'deserted consistency'
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Old Aug 14th, 2011, 03:52 PM   #24
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Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by angliru View Post
It seems like you have a good point, and I actually agree (to some degree) but I don't think it's reasonable or fair to set the bar this high for Caro. I've checked the race rankings at the end of July (the last week to be exact) for the last couple of years.

Caro has 5806 point for the first seven months of 2011, which leads the race by a good margin. That's what I call consistency. No. 2 on the list, Kvitova, has 5037 points. Now, let's see what the best players were able to gather at the same time in 2010 (the same points system was in use then):

1 SERENA WILLIAMS USA 5355
2 VENUS WILLIAMS USA 4085
3 JELENA JANKOVIC SRB 3747
4 SAMANTHA STOSUR AUS 3627
5 JUSTINE HENIN BEL 3415
6 FRANCESCA SCHIAVONE ITA 3198
7 VERA ZVONAREVA RUS 2968
8 CAROLINE WOZNIACKI DEN 2943

Caroline of 2011 has ammased twice the amount of points she did in 2010. We all know she was injured during the clay season of 2010, but she has also managed to collect more race points in 2011 than anyone else was able to do in 2010! That's not inconsistency; that's being up there with the very best!

The race leaders of 2008 were Jankovic and Ivanovic with 5540 and 5522 points respectively (when converted to today's scale). Again, Caroline of 2011 is actually better than anyone in 2008! Let's go back another year. Converting the race points of 2007, however, is quite difficult, as it was a completely different system. But the race leader Justine Henin had 3245 points, which probably equals 5235 points of today's scale according to my rough calculations. Henin was in spectacular form, but missed the Australian Open and could have gathered even more points if she was fit. But she wasn't.

2009 has actually been the only year since 2007 where anyone has been able to collect more points than Caro. The top 6:

1 SAFINA, DINARA RUS 6881
2 WILLIAMS, SERENA USA 5957
3 KUZNETSOVA, SVETLANA RUS 4262
4 DEMENTIEVA, ELENA RUS 3975
5 AZARENKA, VICTORIA BLR 3840
6 WOZNIACKI, CAROLINE DEN 3700

Serena won AO and Wimbledon, was a finalist at Miami, semi finalist at Sydney, Paris, Dubai, and QF at French Open. This is only slightly better than Caro's 2011 in terms of points! Safina, however, was really outstanding in 2009. Winning Rome and Madrid, finalist at AO, FO, Sydney, Stuttgart, and semi finalist at Wimbledon. This is what you're expecting of Caro. It's not good enough that she's better than anyone of 2011, 2010, 2008, or 2007. She has to be even better than the very best of the last five years. Which is a questionable demand, I think. She's 21, and she's no Wayne Gretzky, Edwin Moses, Eddy Merckx, or Michael Jordan. She's good, and she's doing very well, even when we compare her with the very best. That's enough for me. And I think we should be careful not to set the bar too high. If, for instance, Caro had won FO or Wimbledon 2011, then she would have either 7526 or 7646 race points at the end of July. This would perhaps not be an unrealistic figure if she was Seles, Graf, or Navratilova, or even an early Henin. But certainly unprecedented in recent years. This is what we (you) demand of Caro.
Great post. Totally agree. On the same lines - what player since Serena 2002/2003 has sustained a level of dominance over a whole year or 12 months. So now it is all doom and despair that Caro hasn't sustained her level - for much of the time on her worst surface anyway - that she and Kim did last half of 2011 and first part of 2010. The only player to have sustained it for as long as a year is Justine in 2006 and 2007.

That's not to say I don't get worried - especially if Caro makes a large number of UEs. But it sounds from some of these posts that she's been a complete failure when she does have 5 wins and is #1 in the race and rankings.
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Old Aug 14th, 2011, 06:23 PM   #25
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Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

This should be the time of year she plays her best tennis.
She looked awful in Toronto. I couldnt believe up 5-1 she couldnt win another game. It will be probably be windy in NYC

So this tournament is a chance to find some form.

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Old Aug 14th, 2011, 06:54 PM   #26
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Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by terjw View Post
Great post. Totally agree. On the same lines - what player since Serena 2002/2003 has sustained a level of dominance over a whole year or 12 months. So now it is all doom and despair that Caro hasn't sustained her level - for much of the time on her worst surface anyway - that she and Kim did last half of 2011 and first part of 2010. The only player to have sustained it for as long as a year is Justine in 2006 and 2007.

That's not to say I don't get worried - especially if Caro makes a large number of UEs. But it sounds from some of these posts that she's been a complete failure when she does have 5 wins and is #1 in the race and rankings.
The thing that motivated me to start this thread was realising that since the clay season began Caroline is seventh in terms of points collected. That's not doom and gloom it is reality. Also, and I may be in the minority, I do not buy into the theory that Caroline is incapable of playing on clay and that we should expect her to do poorly from April-June. Maybe I just have more faith in her than some of you.

Here are Caroline's results in the bigger tournaments (grand slams, premier mandatories, premier fives and the year end championships) from August, 2010-early April, 2011:

Cincinnati-lost in the R16 to Marion Bartoli (20)
Montreal-won over Vera Zvonareva (11)
US Open-lost in the semi-final to Vera Zvonareva (8)
Tokyo-won over Elena Dementieva (10)
Beijing-won over Vera Zvonareva (4)
YEC-lost to Sam Stosur (7), defeated Elena Dementieva (9), defeated Francesca Schiavone (6), defeated Vera Zvonareva (2), lost in the final to Kim Clijsters (4)
Australian Open-lost in the semi-final to Na Li (11)
Dubai-won over Svetlana Kuznetsova (23)
Indian Wells-won over Marion Bartoli (17)
Miami-lost in the R16 to Andrea Petkovic (23)

And here are her results from May-present:

Madrid-lost in the R16 to Julia Goerges (27)
Rome-lost in the semi-final to Maria Sharapova (8)
Roland Garros-lost in the third round to Daniela Hantuchova (29)
Wimbledon-lost in the R16 to Dominika Cibulkova (24)
Toronto-lost in the second round to Roberta Vinci (22)

Obviously Caroline was on a tremendous hot streak in the second half of 2010 and the first few months of 2011 and it was not reasonable to expect that to continue but she has not made a "big" final since Indian Wells in March and only one "big" semi-final (Rome). Four of her five recent losses in the "big" tournaments were to players ranked outside the top twenty. Probably most worrisome was her performances in the last two slams. For the number one ranked player to fail to make the quarters in two consecutive slams is a disappointing outcome, regardless of the surface. As I said I do not buy into the excuse that she can not play on clay. She had some decent runs on clay this year (Stuttgart and Rome) and she did make the final of Madrid in 2009. I was not expecting her to make every final during the clay season but I did expect marked improvement over last year when for part of the clay season she was hampered by an ankle injury, especially when you consider that after Wimbledon last year was when she made her breakthrough as one of the top players. True, she did win two titles during that stretch but one of them was an international level title and the other did not feature a very strong field. It is at the bigger events that she is expected to perform and for the last several months she has not been doing so. Will she start to do better now that she is back on hardcourts? I hope so but if not I think it is a worrying sign.
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Old Aug 14th, 2011, 07:23 PM   #27
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Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

You have a belief in her? Doesn´t sound like it, I find the threat you started far too negative. Feels like GM all of a sudden.
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Old Aug 14th, 2011, 07:40 PM   #28
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Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

2 majors goals left in 2011. A strong USO, and YE #1.
I dont know what the loss to Vinci means yet, but hopefully it just get her more focused.
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Old Aug 14th, 2011, 07:55 PM   #29
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Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

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You have a belief in her? Doesn´t sound like it, I find the threat you started far too negative. Feels like GM all of a sudden.
Really? Sure, I am being somewhat critical of her but I think I am doing so in a reasonable and respectful way. I laid out my theory and did my best to back it up with facts, that is a far cry from the typical conversations about Caroline in GM. Generally I try to hold myself to the standard that I would not type something about a person that I would feel uncomfortable saying to them in person. I don't think that anything I typed is at odds with that standard so I do not think I am being too harsh.

I absolutely believe in her but with that belief comes expectations. Too many fans appear to be of the opinion that her game is not suited to clay and that we should not expect her to do well on that surface. To me that school of thought is slightly insulting to Caroline and her abilities. I have a different opinion and believe that she is capable of doing much better on clay than she did this season.
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Old Aug 14th, 2011, 08:33 PM   #30
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Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

There have only been 2 big hard court tournaments after Indian Wells though. I don't put that much importance on her clay court results particularly in terms of consistency. I think it would better to keep an eye on her hard court performances to monitor her consistency.

After reaching her first big hard court final, the US Open in 2009, Caro has so far gone no more than 2 big hard court tournaments without reaching at least the semis and so far gone no more than 4 big hard court tournaments without reaching the final.

After reaching her first hard court final, Stockholm in 2008, Caro has so far gone no more than 5 hard court tournaments without reaching at least the semis and so far gone no more than 8 hard court tournaments without reaching the final.

After reaching the US Open final in 2009, Caro has so far gone no more than 3 hard court tournaments without reaching at least the semis and so far gone no more than 8 hard court tournaments without reaching the final.
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