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Old Jul 25th, 2011, 01:34 PM   #1
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Ranking Goals & Predictions

Season End 2011
Julia’s (updated) goal is to grab a Top 20 spot at season end 2011. If she succeeds she will have access to Top 20 WC (two for each non-mandatory tournament) in 2012 season but has to include her best two P5 tournament results. As a new Top 20 player she will start with her best P5 result within the 52 weeks cycle (= 70 points from Toronto 2011) in Doha 2012 (assuming she will play there) following with Rome 2012.

The next table shows live ranking for those players who compete for a season end Top 20 spot (please mind, as Beijing is a mandatory event, I only count the eight best results of players tournament of choices; this and points earned during the week are the reason why ranking points are different to "WTA Race"):

Code:
                                Points      15th    16th                  Tournaments
18. Flavia Pennetta (ITA)        2,490       70      30                  L   L
19. Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS)    2,487       30       1                      M
20. Julia Görges (GER)           2,225       30      30                  L   L      
21. Dominika Cibulková (SVK)     2,215       70      60                  L   M
22. Roberta Vinci (ITA)          2,110       70      60                      M   B
23. Daniela Hantuchová (SVK)     2,095      120     120                  L       B
24. Yanina Wickmayer (BEL)       2,050       70      70                      L
25. Ana Ivanović (SRB)           1,940       70      60                      L   B

This is Julia's relevant scorecard in detail:
Code:
  Mandatory               Tournaments of Choice
GS (4) PM (4)      1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8        Σ
 640    540       470 130 125 120  70  70  30  30   2,225 points
In 2010 Maria Kirilenko (RUS) earned # 20 at season end by acumulating 2,550 points. Compared to that score, Julia is 330 points short. However, as Julia holds # 19 on 10/03/11 by accumulating 2,435 points (Ana Ivanovic's 2,470 points are good for # 18), it looks like the bar is slightly lower this year.

Here is one (of many) scenarios how may cross the finish line for playing her first Top 20 season:
Code:
     Tournament       Seed    Tier  Result  Points   Net points
Linz                    6      I     SF      130      100
Luxembourg              7*     I     SF      130      100
                                                      200
* estimated

Australian Open 2012 Seed
A realistic goal for Julia should be a seed within 17th to 24th tier (= planned meeting of a 9th to 16th seed in R3). The next table shows live ranking as of 10/10/11 for # 17 to # 24 tier plus four more or less close contenders (# 16 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova accumulated 2,765 ranking points):

Code:
                                        Points    15th   16th 
17. Sabine Lisicki (GER)                 2,679      10     1
18. Flavia Pennetta (ITA)                2,490      70    30
19. Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS)            2,458       1     1
20. Dominika Cibulková (SVK)             2,175      60    30
21. Julia Görges (GER)                   2,125      30    30
22. Roberta Vinci (ITA)                  2,110      70    60
23. Daniela Hantuchová (SVK)             2,095     120   120
24. Ana Ivanović (SRB)                   1,945      70    60
26. Maria Kirilenko (RUS)                1,930      40    40
25. Yanina Wickmayer (BEL)               1,851      70     1
27. Lucie Šafářová (CZE)                 1,790      30    30
28. Anabel Medina Garrigues (ESP)        1,765     120    70
 
Results from Sydney/Hobart 2011 until Brisbane/Auckland 2012
This is Julia's relevant scorecard in detail:
Code:
  Mandatory               Tournaments of Choice
GS (4) PM (4)      1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8         Σ
 640    540       470 125 120  70  70  30  30  30    2,125 points
After Brisbane 2011 Flavia Penetta (ITA) sits on # 24 and accumulated 2,355 points. Maria Kirilenko (RUS) holds # 24 by accumulating 2,210 ranking points (as of 10/10/11). Assuming the bar is 2,250 Julia is short of 125 ranking points.

Julia has (at least) four opportunities to earn these additional points, such as:
Code:
     Tournament          Tier  Result   Points  Net points
Linz                       I     QF       70       40
Luxembourg                 I     QF       70       40
Brisbane                   P     R2       60       30                                              
                                                  110

Last edited by Tennis Observer : Oct 11th, 2011 at 06:36 PM. Reason: update
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Old Jul 25th, 2011, 01:55 PM   #2
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Re: Ranking Goals & Predictions

Julia needs to pick up her tempo of play if she is to break into top 10.
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Old Jul 27th, 2011, 11:49 PM   #3
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Re: Ranking Goals & Predictions

If Julia will score her first Top 20 season in 2011, she can be very proud of herself.
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Old Aug 24th, 2011, 07:05 PM   #4
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Re: Ranking Goals & Predictions

After the end of the US Hardcourt season, Julia's goal to be a Top 20 player at season end is all but not a safe journey. For those who are interested, I have updated the opener.
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Old Feb 26th, 2012, 05:23 PM   #5
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Re: Ranking Goals & Predictions

Can you update it, please. I think that Julia will be in top 15 after IW and Miami.
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