[Vikapower]

Originally Posted by Skoo

Another match on grass would have been wonderful, don't you think? It would have saved the WTA again. Anyway, I have nothing against Caro and I definitely care about Julia's career. But those matches are symbols of consistency for her. And I think the surface is not that important. She wasn't far from beating her at Copenhagen in 2010, but the consistency wasn't there in that match.

Yes but it's the context around the Julia vs. Wozanicki match up that annoys me but you're right, these matches are references for her and definitively symbols of consistency because it's really in that period she started clicking with her game on a more regular basis.

I believe Julia can do well on any surface, I've always trusted her on that but the thing is will she really !? Faster surfaces really would not favor her because of her unique technique, this is all theoretical because with confidence you can accomplish a lot - and maybe this is the year to make a statement on Decoturf.

I'm still awaiting a good solid US Open series since last year she skipped all of the events leading up to the US Open - grass was Julia's so said worst surface which would probably have been a fact since it was only her 8th match on grass in Eastbourne, yet, she still made it to the 3rd. round of Wimbledon like a champ and wasn't that far from making it to the 4th.

She's learning very well, it's maybe not as quick progression like Petra Kvitova for example but this is only just a start before she reserves the better for the future.

Well, she turned it around though. Those matches in Mexico must have been probably pretty awful too. I have a bad feeling about the fact that she's the first seed again (and the defending champion).

Yes it's not easy to be the defending champion - I'm not sure the #1 seed affects her that much. She's won the event before so she must definitively be comfortable with the environment and stuff and use last year's experience to prevail.

[Skoo]

I actually wanted to say in the previous message that she seems an all-courter. But I think she always plays better (i.e. consistent) indoor. Her last two finals were indoor, and she had some health problems in the one she lost. I think there is a pretty good chance of winning another one this year. Maybe she somehow feels less pressure indoor?

Anyway, she played on grass about as well as on clay (of course, only at Wimby), if not better. She crushed Medina and dealt pretty well with a very solid performance by Johansson. And, of course, Cibulkova was helpless against her. After seeing her at Eastbourne, I didn't have any expectations and her new and improved game was a very pleasant surprise. Maybe she learns as fast as Kvitova, but she's not that fit and confident. And she doesn't have Navratilova to give her advice and support

[Vikapower]

We should forget about Bad Gastein very fast as obviously Julia didn't seem to care that much... - I'd had loved for her to defend a title for the first time in her career but it will not be in Austria. So next stop is Stanford hopefully better fortunes on the fast HCs.

[Skoo]

I think this loss meant out of top 20. And this trend will probably continue. She lied, she didn't learn. Stuttgart and Madrid were probably mistakes. I don't think she will do very well in the US. Maybe indoor, at the end of the season. We can be optimistic, of course, but that will make it only worse for us. But hey, now we have another two weeks with no tennis from her and most probably with a lot of pics with nails

[Ayumilove]

^ she'll be at no.19. 200 points gone in the next two weeks but than 5 weeks she plays with no point to defend.

[Skoo]

Only 200? I thought 279. Don't you lose all the points if you're the defending champion (except the one you earn for the 1st round)?

[mk27]

She will lose 310 points in the next 2 weeks.

130 from Palermo this week and 280 from Bad Gastein next week (Bad Gastein was one week later last year)
Both results will be replaced by 70 points from Copenhagen last year and 30 points from Bogota.

130 + 280 - 70 - 30 = 310


She will play all 5 weeks in the North America HC-Season and has only 70 points to defend from Copenhagen last year.

[Skoo]

Damn, and I thought I understand the ranking system. Why does one get points from last year or from months ago?

[mk27]

Only the best 16 results from the last 12 month are counted for the rankings.

These are Julia's non countable results at the moment:

Copenhagen 2010 70 points
Quebec 2010 30 points
Dubai 2010 30 points
Bogota 2011 30 points
Acapulco 2011 30 points
Monterrey 2011 1 point
Seoul 2011 1 point
Eastbourne 2011 1 point

[Skoo]

Oh, I see. And had she defended her title, would she still had received those 70+30 points? And the points from Copenhagen have to be defended in another tournament in the same week as Copenhagen last year?

[mk27]

Originally Posted by Skoo

Oh, I see. And had she defended her title, would she still had received those 70+30 points?

No, she wouldn't receive those points.

Originally Posted by Skoo

And the points from Copenhagen have to be defended in another tournament in the same week as Copenhagen last year?

Yes, that would be the week with Carlsbad this year.

[Skoo]

And she wouldn't receive the points from Copenhagen because the new points from Bad Gastein would be considered as one of the new best performances, even though they were defended?

[mk27]

Yes, but only if she could get more than the 70 points from Copenhagen.


This is her ranking breakdown from this week:

Stuttgart 470
Madrid (mandatory) 450
Bad Gastein 280
Luxembourg 200
Australian Open (mandatory) 160
French Open (mandatory) 160
Wimbledon 160 (mandatory)
Palermo 130
Auckland 130
Tokyo 125
Charleston 120
US Open (mandatory) 100
Indian Wells (mandatory) 80
Linz 70
Miami (mandatory) 5
Beijing (mandatory) 5
-------------------------------(Best-of-16) = 2645 points
Copenhagen 70
Quebec 30
Dubai 30
Bogota 30
Acapulco 30
Monterrey 1
Seoul 1
Eastbourne 1


In 2 weeks, it will looks like this:

Stuttgart 470
Madrid (mandatory) 450
Luxembourg 200
Australian Open (mandatory) 160
French Open (mandatory) 160
Wimbledon 160 (mandatory)
Auckland 130
Tokyo 125
Charleston 120
US Open (mandatory) 100
Indian Wells (mandatory) 80
Linz 70
Copenhagen 70
Acapulco 30
Miami (mandatory) 5
Beijing (mandatory) 5
-------------------------------(Best-of-16) = 2335 points
Quebec 30
Dubai 30
Bogota 30
Monterrey 1
Seoul 1
Eastbourne 1
Bad Gastein 1

[Skoo]

Now I understand. Or so I think Thanks! So she will exit top 20 after all, right?

[mk27]

Originally Posted by Skoo

Now I understand. Or so I think Thanks! So she will exit top 20 after all, right?

Maybe, she will only go down to 20-22. But she has only 70 points to defend in the HC-season and will play Stanford, Carlsbad, Toronto, Cincinnati and Dallas.