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Old Apr 25th, 2010, 05:34 AM   #31
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Re: NCAA At-larges

At-Large Implications

#35 Tulsa def. #47. Rice 4-2

#48 Yale def. #58 Brown 5-2

#44 Pepperdine def. #62 San Diego 4-0

#40 Nebraska def. #57 Oklahoma St. 4-3

#59 Marshall upsets #27 SMU 4-2

- A huge upset by Marshall but NOT enough to get them an at-large.


LOCKS

40. Nebraska 3-4-1

- Nebraska is now a lock for an NCAA at-large with their state sweep over #37 Oklahoma and #57 Oklahoma St.
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Old Apr 25th, 2010, 07:55 AM   #32
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Re: NCAA At-larges

Oklahoma

Just some thoughts on Oklahoma.

1. Why in my humble opinion they're over ranked.

- Oklahoma defeated at the time #30 Alabama 4-3 early in the season which got Oklahoma ranked #36 the following week. However 2 of Alabama's returning starters from last season, which helped Alabama get a high pre-season ranking, were missing against Oklahoma including Alabama's #1 last season Tiffany Welcher.

- Oklahoma's best and only win over a top 55 team this season was against #35 Tulsa. Oklahoma defeated Tulsa 4-3, however Tulsa's regular #2 Anastasia Erofeeva was missing from Tulsa's singles line-up.


2. Below were Oklahoma's ranked wins and why they may be on shaky ground.

- #35 Tulsa = Ranking headed upward.

- #57 Oklahoma St. = Ranking will surely drop. One of their ranked wins in Wichita St. lost their ranking this week. This will pull down OSU's ranking several spots. Also OSU just lost to Nebraska and will probably lose to Texas in the Big 12 tournament.

- #64 Alabama = Ranking headed downward. Was upset by #74 LSU in the SEC tournament.

- #65 College of Charleston = May lose ranking. One of their only 2 ranked wins, Charleston Southern, fell out of the rankings this week.

- #68 Colorado = Ranking headed downward. Has lost 3 straight and will probably lose to Baylor in the Big 12 tournament.

- #70 Texas Tech = Ranking headed downward. Will probably play Nebraska in Big 12 Tournament. Only ranked wins are over #57 Oklahoma St. and #68 Colorado, see above.

- Wichita State = Lost their ranking this week. This may pull Oklahoma's ranking down a few spots.

It will be interesting to see if Oklahoma's #37 ranking slides out of NCAA At-large contention by season's end.


For those saying not to assume, this is the type of analysis I perform for all the at-large contenders before projecting a lock or elimination.
.

Last edited by gouci : Apr 25th, 2010 at 03:13 PM.
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Old Apr 25th, 2010, 06:05 PM   #33
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Re: On bubble to host regional

Hosting Implications

#1 North Carolina def. #14 Florida St. 4-0

#3 Florida def. #16 South Carolina 4-0

#13 Tennessee def. #17 Mississippi 4-3

#30 DePaul def. #24 South Florida 4-0

#20 Georgia Tech def. #8 Clemson 4-2


Regional Hosts

20. Georgia Tech

- Georgia Tech is a lock to host an NCAA regional with their upset wins over #11 Miami and #8 Clemson.

16. South Carolina

- South Carolina is a lock to host an NCAA regional with their win over #15 Georgia. I gave SC the nod over Mississippi because of their head to head win over Ole Miss.


My projection for the 4/27 rankings.

10. Tennessee
11. Duke
12. Miami
13. Georgia Tech
14. Cal
15. Florida St.
16. South Carolina -7

17. Mississippi -6
18. Texas -2
19. Georgia
20. USC
21. Illinois

- I should note Texas and Illinois still have an outside chance of hosting a regional only if either wins their conference tournament.

Edit: bumped up Georgia Tech from 15 to 13 with upset over #1 UNC.
.

Last edited by gouci : Apr 30th, 2010 at 10:21 AM.
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Old Apr 26th, 2010, 07:23 AM   #34
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Re: NCAA At-larges

North Texas def. #49 FIU 4-3

North Texas receives the Sun Belt Conference auto bid.
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Old Apr 26th, 2010, 07:27 AM   #35
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Re: NCAA At-larges

If I had to guess today using top 45 as cut-off

Last 8 In

39. Utah 18.54
40. Nebraska 18.35
42. Boise St. 17.68
44. Pepperdine 17.29
45. Harvard 17.03

46. Long Beach St. 16.62
- Probably pulled up by rising Nebraska and San Diego St.
- Pulled down by sliding Minnesota.

47. Rice 16.31
- Helped with Texas Tech getting ranked.
- Probably pulled up by rising LSU and maybe by rising North Texas.

48. Yale 14.85
- Probably pulled up by rising Harvard and win over #58 Brown.


Last 4 Out

37. Oklahoma 19.95
- Probably pulled down by sliding Oklahoma St., College of Charleston and lost its ranking Wichita St.
- Maybe pulled up by rising North Texas.

41. N.C. St. 18
- Probably pulled down by sliding Winthrop and College of Charleston.

43. Indiana 17.42
- Probably pulled down by sliding Minnesota.

49. FIU 13.92
- Maybe pulled up by rising North Texas.

.

Last edited by gouci : Apr 27th, 2010 at 07:32 PM.
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Old Apr 30th, 2010, 07:46 PM   #36
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Re: NCAA At-larges

At-large Implications

#28 Iowa def. #42 Indiana 4-1


LOCKS

40. Utah 3-3-1

- Utah is now a lock for an NCAA at-large regardless of how they do in the MWC tournament. Utah will be pulled up by the rise in rankings of DePaul and San Diego St.



Eliminated

46. North Carolina State 3-2-1

- N.C. St. is eliminated from NCAA At-large contention with their drop of 1.31 computer points this week. N.C. St. will slightly be pulled out of At-Large contention by the slides of FIU and Winthrop.


47. Yale 6-0-0

- Yale is eliminated from NCAA At-Large contention. I originally had them as a lock but it seems Yale needed a 2nd win over Harvard to get them in. Yale improved by 1.58 computer points from last week to 16.43 pts. From past seasons 16 points usually gets you an at-large but not this season. Yale did have a win over #58 Brown last week but that was their 6th best win and apparently didn't help as much as I originally thought.
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Old Apr 30th, 2010, 08:11 PM   #37
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Re: NCAA At-larges

If I had to guess today using top 45 as cut-off

Last 4 In

42. Indiana 18.16

- Pulled down greatly if #71 Minnesota loses their ranking.


44. Pepperdine 17.44

- Probably pulled up by rising San Diego St., Rice and Long Beach St.


45. Long Beach St. 16.80

- Probably pulled up by rising San Diego St. and UCI.
- Pulled down if #71 Minnesota or #74 Nevada loses their ranking.


48. Rice 16.16

- Probably pulled up by #60 North Texas who just got ranked and rising LSU.
- Pulled down if #75 Texas Tech loses their ranking.


Last 2 Out

43. Boise St. 17.57

- Probably pulled up by rising UCI.
- In danger of dropping out of At-large if any of #72 Colorado, #73 BYU or #74 Nevada loses their rankings.


46. North Carolina St. 16.69


If Boise St. doesn't get an at-large that moves the At-large to 44 and one of the last 4 in is bumped out.

Now I've gotta go there's someplace I gotta visit.
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Old Apr 30th, 2010, 11:07 PM   #38
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Re: NCAA At-larges

Quote:
Originally Posted by form View Post
# 49 Purdue is about to win over # 21 Illinois it looks like ... jump from 49 to 40.. CHANGES 'CURRENT # 44' TO AT LARGE CUT OFF as Purdue will be LOCK if they beat Illinois.
Ten minutes can be a long time...

How did Lambropoulos end up at no. 6? She was at no. 2 when these teams faced earlier this month.
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Old May 1st, 2010, 06:54 AM   #39
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Re: NCAA At-larges

At-Large Implications

#21 Illinois def. #49 Purdue 4-2

#37 Texas A&M def. #39 Oklahoma 4-2


#36 Nebraska def. #75 Texas Tech 4-0

- This could bump Texas Tech out of the rankings and slightly pull down Rice and Oklahoma.


#64 TCU upsets #33 UNLV 4-3

- TCU's ranking increase will help BYU which helps Boise St. stay an at-large contender.


#67 SDSU upsets #40 Utah 4-1

- Better late than never on SDSU showing how good they really are. This helps Pepperdine and LBS.

- If SDSU beats TCU there is a small chance SDSU jumps into the top 44 and pushes the at-large bubble back down 1 spot. SDSU would have wins over #38 SMC, #40 Utah, TCU twice (probably jumps into 50's with win over #33 UNLV), #70 USD and #73 BYU.
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Old May 3rd, 2010, 05:56 AM   #40
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Re: NCAA At-larges

At-Large Implications

#18 Texas def. #36 Nebraska 4-0

Fresno St. upsets #74 Nevada 4-1

- Nevada's loss may knock them out of the rankings which may hurt Long Beach St., Boise St. and Harvard.


#64 TCU def. #67 San Diego St. 4-3

- SDSU loses the match in a 3rd set tie-breaker. Another SDSU win would have helped Long Beach St. and Pepperdine.

- TCU receives the Mountain West Conference NCAA auto bid.


#43 Boise St. def. Fresno St. 4-3

- Boise St. receives the WAC NCAA auto bid.
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Old May 3rd, 2010, 06:49 AM   #41
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Re: NCAA At-larges

At-Large Implications

#69 UCI upsets #45 Long Beach St. 4-1

- At #1 singles UCI's Courtney Byron was able to handle the power of Jaklin Alawi and matched up well against her. Byron's effective game plan was making it Backhand City for Alawi all day long. Alawi would slice her backhand which didn't hurt Byron and kept it away from Alawi's powerful forehand. Alawi's backhand slices allowed Byron to come up to the net on short balls and put it away. Byron won 7-5,6-4.

- At #2 singles it was UCI's April Bisharat's power vs Anais Dallara's speed. In this match power prevailed as Bisharat easily defeated Dallara 6-0,6-3. Bisharat who is a striker that goes for flat winners on both wings, was a bad match-up for Dallara because Bisharat's aggressiveness didn't allow Dallara much time to run down the balls.

- #5 singles was a rematch between UCI's Rebeca Kwan and Anna Jeczmionka. In the 1st meeting Kwan won a close match in a 3rd set tie-breaker. But Kwan was playing very well coming into the match having easily defeated a good #4 player in UCSB's Annabel Gledden 6-0,6-3 the day before. Kwan came up huge for UCI defeating Jeczmionka 6-3,6-2.

- UC Irvine receives the Big West Conference NCAA auto bid.


The NCAA automatic bid upsets just keep coming. The ACC, Mountain West, Big West and Sun Belt Conferences didn't have their #1 seed win the championship.
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